Joe Springer's  Instablog

Joe Springer
  • on Retirement
Send Message
It is very hard or impossible to time the broad market consistently — there are no famous investors that got rich by consistently knowing what the broad market would do next. This only makes sense, as there are just too many variables in the broad market. But there are many famous investors who... More
My company:
My blog:
The Wall Street Exclusive
  • Hydrogenics - Near Term Profitability And Huge Upside 22 comments
    Apr 7, 2013 11:03 AM | about stocks: HYGS, MNKD, TA

    Email to be added to my free newsletter, I sent this out on Thursday:

    I wanted to give you a heads up that I'm researching a stock for an in-depth article - Hydrogenics (NASDAQ:HYGS). It will probably be several weeks until I publish the article, but the stock is not liquid so I wanted to tell you now in case you are interested.

    Hydrogenics is close to profitability now, and may be profitable in Q1 2013 depending on how orders are recognized, they have $16 million cash and a very sizable backlog, they are healthy and the excitement seems about to start.

    HYGS has three businesses:

    -they are a leading supplier of on-site Hydrogen generation for all sorts of industrial and fueling purposes

    -they have a fuel cell business for propulsion and backup power for cell towers - they just got a $90 million propulsion order

    -and the most exciting business is that they do energy storage from renewable sources. The idea is that a windmill spinning at 4 am is wasted, no other way of storing the energy can scale for use at utilities. What they do is use the energy from the windmill to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, and then they take that hydrogen and inject it directly into the natural gas system. They already are doing it in Germany where they have won 4 of the 6 contracts awarded, they are competing for 12 more there currently. They have interest elsewhere in Europe and Japan, and Enbridge - the largest distributor of natural gas in North America - recently partnered with HYGS and took an ownership stake. This is a $10 - $50 billion market.

    Here is the presentation from the latest conference call:

    The CEO's latest presentation:

    And their site:

    This is an exciting play on the Hydrogen economy, and I like it quite a bit. Remember this is not a liquid stock: if there is not an eager buying/selling counter-party when you want to get in or out you may not get a good price. That same phenomenon can work to your advantage though - if you are long and an institution wants to get long, you will enjoy a nice ride up.

    My last two articles worked very well, TA has doubled and MNKD put on close to half a billion dollars market cap:

    Please do your due diligence on this if you like it, I like it but there are no guarantees.

    Success to trade,


    Disclosure: I am long HYGS, MNKD.

    Stocks: HYGS, MNKD, TA
Back To Joe Springer's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (17)
Track new comments
  • sheldond
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
    Great Work here Joe,


    Thanks for posting!


    7 Apr 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thank you DCSIII!
    7 Apr 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Noreika
    , contributor
    Comments (497) | Send Message
    You're really nailing this MNKD run up Joe, good work. Should've taken a position a couple months ago. Still watching.
    7 Apr 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thanks Noreika!
    7 Apr 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • bholly1191
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
    Got in late afternoon on HYGS. Hope we will see that $12.00 or higher target price. As always, great info. Appreciate it.
    8 Apr 2013, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I'm glad bholly, rock on!


    I think $12 is very low, HYGS' story is finally playing out. Their power-to-gas tech is 25% better than the rest and protected by patent.
    9 Apr 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • chrisd771
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Thank you, Joe. I've been impressed with several of your calls over the past year, and the detailed research you do before posting. SA is fortunate to have you.
    9 Apr 2013, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thank you Chris! I am fortunate to have SA, not only to be read but I've learned more from the smart people on this site than any other source.
    9 Apr 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Gtg007
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
    Thank you Joe for a Great article and insight!
    10 Apr 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » You are most welcome, I hope to have a persuasive article in a week or two.
    10 Apr 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • elchert
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
    Hello. My name is Joe Elchert and I have been following hydrogenics since early 2008. Very glad to see your coverage Joe. Ty. I believe once an institution or 2 get involved here we will see the market cap multiply especially when we see a profit. I was hope full for a profit in Q2 but love the possibility of Q1 like you say.
    11 Apr 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thank you Joe. They have Commscope revenue in Q1 for the first time, and the $90 million propulsion order could start generating revenue in Q1 also per the CEO. They are profitable at about $50 million revenue annually per the CEO, they should get there this year easy.
    11 Apr 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (449) | Send Message
    Thanks Joe. Noticed you were working on Hydrogenics... looked it up a couple places and crossed it off my list... BUT... if you are optimistic then... I can be. Numbers looked horrible in what I saw. BUT... likely going long sometime Monday... hoping for the "Springer Effect". And looking forward to your article! Very long MNKD... soon HGYS.
    27 Apr 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Thanks Dennis, here's a quick run-down, 16 years of pain followed by inflection points in several of their businesses:



    They should be profitable in the near term, the backlog (all with deposits) is bigger than the market cap, so is the tax loss carry forward. The sales pipeline looks very good in all sectors, it has been a long time coming for Hydrogenics. They have the best patents, best partners, and are first to market in the renewable storage at utility scale market, a huge market. The puny market cap will be a thing of the past soon enough in my opinion.
    27 Apr 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Titus Poulo
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
    Great article, but I'm quite worried about Hydrogenics management when I read the presentation from the latest conference call:



    The reasoning exposed in my understanding is the following:
    1) We do not sell what we offer our price, so we make discounts for our products to boost revenue growth (otherwise it would be the disaster it seems).
    2) we increase our costs to better lose money.
    3) Conclusion: With the deterioration of margins and deepening our losses when sales increase, we have a clear path to return to profitability.


    Maybe they'll get there and I missed an episode, but I'm not ready to take the paris. In any case, I would not recruit a manager with such a plan.
    30 Apr 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Hi Titus, they delivered the very first power to gas project ever in December, the real money will be in much larger projects but this first project is the first to market and a working proof of concept, I have no problem with it, the CEO on the Q4 conference call:


    "We occasionally use very competitive pricing when introducing new technology that requires a lead adopter or a lighthouse project. Once identified, Hydrogenics will assist lead adopters in such markets by strategically lowering the hurdle rate to use our technology and thereby accelerating the demonstration of the pilot phase of the application. We do this from time-to-time targeting new and attractive markets be they geographic based or application based, and the adoption by a lead company that will materially move the market in our favor."
    30 Apr 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • petethepanzer
    , contributor
    Comments (1055) | Send Message
    i also enjoyed hbo rome titus poulo is insane aha
    8 May 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Gabriel.F
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Would I be a little late buying HYGS?
    21 May 2013, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I don't think so at all Gabriel.F, I hope to be done my extensive article by tomorrow, I think this one will prove to be a billion dollar company.
    21 May 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Jack284
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
    Joe............the bid/ask dropped on HYGs !?
    22 May 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Looks like a buy to me! Hang in there, hoping to be done the article today.
    22 May 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Jack284
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
    i bought some more........the bid had dropped to 8.22 temporarily......its moving up again
    22 May 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • $AMNF $3.8 million cash at end of Q1: Should be able to fund expansion
    May 27, 2016
  • Look $MIK vs other brick&mortars Retail selloff is buy in Amazonprotected MIK 16.3 PE DivCatlyst C
    May 11, 2016
  • $ADMP Adamis License Agreement with Allergan plc Subsidiary for Epinephrine Pre-Filled Syringe Carlo is a dealmaker
    May 10, 2016
More »

Latest Comments

Most Commented
  1. Fire Away ( Comments)
  2. I Am You See ( Comments)
  3. What Is Tonix Worth? ( Comments)
  4. Hooked On Tonix ( Comments)
  5. Seattle Super-Tonix ( Comments)
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.