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  • Hooked On Tonix 64 comments
    Oct 31, 2013 4:03 PM | about stocks: TNXP

    Email joespringernews@gmail.com to be added to my free newsletter, I sent this out earlier today:

    Hey guys,

    I wanted to give you a heads up that I am working on an in-depth article on Tonix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TNXP).

    Tonix is developing treatments for disorders of the Central Nervous System, starting with the quite large unmet needs inFibromyalgia and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.

    What they have is a sublingual form of cyclobenzaprine, a muscle relaxer approved by the FDA in 1977 for muscle spasms. The FDA has a 505(b)(2) program that allows drugs to be repurposed for other conditions, and Tonix patented their very low dose fast-acting sublingual version of the drug (VLD SBL CBP - very low dose sublingual cyclobenzaprine) for bedtime use in Fibromyalgia. Taking cyclobenzaprine orally takes about 2 hours to work.

    Fibromyalgia is an incurable and lifelong (once it starts) condition characterized by widespread pain, sleep problems, fatigue, and mood and memory problems. Women are affected about 90% more often than men, and it is very often disabling enough to interfere with regular activities of work and life. It is a very large unmet medical need - the NIH cites a study that 5 million American adults had Fibromyalgia in 2008 - and satisfying treatments are lacking. That NIH number is probably low, though, as Fibromyalgia usually goes undiagnosed for years and the average patient that has been diagnosed with Fibromyalgia was diagnosed by their FIFTH doctor. The FDA recently named Fibromyalgia one of the 20 diseases it will focus on for special regulatory treatment in the next 3 years and is holding a hearing on Fibromylagia on December 10th. Though Fibromyalgia is a centuries old disease, the FDA only approved the first drug for Fibromyaligia in 2007, and has subsequently approved 2 more (2 are approved for depression, one for pain).

    Back to the 505(b)(2) program - it provides an excellent margin of safety for Tonix.

    Cyclopbenzaprine has been approved and available on the market for a long time (not for Fibromyalgia) in doses of 5 - 30 milligrams. Tonix's sublingual version is 2.8 mgs, and is well documented to be safe at ten times the dose - so safety concerns can virtually be eliminated, and fewer trials need to be run.

    Tonix's drug (called TNX-102) works in an interesting way. Sleep EEGs show people have a Cyclical Alternating Pattern (NYSE:CAP) divided in to alpha-1, alpha-2, and alpha-3. When people are in alpha-1 they are less alert and have higher hormones associated with deeper sleep. Alpha-2 and alpha-3 are more alert stages, and are thought to be less restorative. TNX-102 is shown to reduce the amount of time spent in A2 an A3, and hence increase the amount of time having restorative sleep. So TNX-102 does not increase the overall amount of sleep time by knocking people out like so many other sleep aids - it increases the quality of sleep.

    Interestingly, none of that really matters. Tonix does not have to show why their drug works, just that it does work to reduce pain. And it has already shown that.

    Tonix completed a phase 2a double blind, placebo controlled, multi-center trial of 36 fibromyalgia patients takingsublingual cyclobenzaprine or placebo for 8 weeks, and then tested for changes in pain, fatigue, tenderness, anxiety, and depression. All of these were improved, with pain - the one that will decide if the drug is approved or not - showing a 26% average improvement vs. 0% in the placebo, and with a P value of less than .05 (that means it is statistically significant, more than 95% likely to not be giving a false signal).

    This will be all they have to do again in the currently running phase 2b trial, which is virtually identical to the 2a trial, except there are 120 patients instead of 36 and the trial is 12 weeks long.

    The extra time bodes well for symptoms to continue to improve - that is what happened in a sodium oxybate trial onFibromyalgia. Sodium oxybate works in a way that is similar to TNX-102, and Fibromyalgia patients campaigned passionately for the drug to be approved in 2010, but sodium oxybate is the exact same drug as the very problematic date rape drug GHB, and for that reason the drug was denied. TNX-102 has no such concerns. Also, as it is treating the pain indirectly with restorative sleep, there is much less potential for abuse like is common in pain killing drugs like opiates.

    In addition, Fibromyalgia is closely related to PTSD. More than half of people that qualify for a Fibromyalgia diagnosis also qualify for a PTSD diagnosis, and vice versa. PTSD is already estimated to be a much larger problem than fibromyalgia - US Veterans Affairs estimates that a whopping 7-8% of people will have PTSD in their lifetime - that's more than 25 million Americans. And PTSD is a big problem associated with unpredictable, violent behavior and suicide, and is an enormous problem for the military. But it is not just war that brings on PTSD - car accidents, assault, abuse, or other traumas bring onPTSD as well.

    Fibromyalgia was and is misunderstood, but trauma is now being recognized to play a critical role, and the overlap withPTSD is undeniable. A study of 2,596 people with Fibromyalgia found that 73% indicated an emotional trauma or chronic stress seemed to be the triggering event that brought on their Fibromyalgia:

    http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2474/8/27

    Note that this same study shows that most Fibromyalgia patients have tried CBP off label, and found it helpful (and that is the very slow acting oral version). Also note that patients listed morning stiffness, fatigue, and non-restorative sleep before pain in severity.

    Timeline and Value:

    Tonix's current Fibromyalgia study will end in about 11 months, and after that they have a very good chance to be a half-billion dollar company. How so?

    Compare Tonix to MAP Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:MAPP). MAPP had a migraine drug (pain and women's health like TNX-102) that was repurposed from the 1950s using the 505(b)(2) program. Some projections had them getting $1 billion in revenue annually by 2020 if all went well. After their phase 2b trial Allergan partnered with them, MAPP soared to half a billion dollars market cap on the news and Allergan funded the final trial, after which it bought out MAPP for $958 million, months before the FDA ruled on the drug.

    Does Tonix project to $1 billion annual revenue in 2020 if all goes well?

    Yes.

    In 2012 the 3 approved drugs for Fibromyalgia had $1.5 billion in revenue, with a 14% compound annual growth rate. With the attention being shown to Fibromyalgia and the disease being mis and un diagnosed for so long that number should continue to grow, but none of the three drugs is anywhere close to a panacea, and the average Fibromyalgia patient takes close to three drugs a day, and there is no approved bedtime medicine. We saw that most patients have tried and found helpful the unproved oral version of the product. And that is just is fibromyalgia, to say nothing of PTSD.

    And let's not stop with PTSD. Tonix has pharmacokinetics patents on TNX-102 that last for 19 more years, and owns 100% of them (which is rare for a small biotech). These are so called "oxycotin" patents, as that product was a reformulation of 95 year old oxycodone, and the pharmacokinetics patents beat every challenge in court and expired naturally. Tonix has retained the same law firm used to file and protect those oxycotin patents, and their market exclusivity should be bullet proof until 2033.

    So when I say let's not stop with PTSD, I mean the pipeline for TNX-102 is as big as the pipeline of problems that would benefit from restorative sleep, and that list can get very long quickly.

    Yes, Tonix can generate $1 billion in revenue annually by 2020, and they have meaningful upside from there.

    The very best thing about Tonix may be the management - all were brought on board for their specific expertise, all are significant investors of the company. I'll let CEO Seth Lederman introduce you to the team (quote from last month's Warsaw presentation):

    "Let me quickly take you through the people I am Seth Lederman, I'm the CEO and chairman. I've been doing specialty pharmaceutical work in industry for about 15 years. Before that I spent about 20 years at Columbia University, where I rose to the rank of tenured professor and although I did a lot of basic work in immunology, I also was a professor of medicine and of rheumatology, where rheumatology is these subspecialty of medicine that cares for fibromyalgia patients, so I have direct experience treating fibromyalgia patients and a lot of conviction that the medicine that we're developing is really going to be a game changer in this area. We show, for myself and other people in the company, products that are FDA approved, that we've worked on and I just show here Fusilev, which was approved in the United States for colorectalcancer, was a drug that I owned, in the former company. We sold it to Spectrum and it did about $200 million dollars in sales last year, but similar to TNX-102 SL, It had a lower threshold for approval, and that's one of his signature features of products in companies that I focus on.

    Our CFO, Leland Gershell is an MD/PhD from Columbia. He was associated with, he is an inventor on the patent forZolinza, which is a Merck cancer drug. And, you can see how technically focused we are, that the CFO of our company, the chief financial officer, is an MD/PhD. The team has worked together for a long time, Leland was a student at Columbia. Actually helped me fund two companies, Bella and Targent. So we've worked together on and off for about 15 years and Bruce Daugherty at the bottom is a 20 plus year veteran of Merck but someone also I've worked with on and off for 20 years. So this is a team that's battle tested, we've worked together and we have a lot of synergies and cover all the bases.

    We're a virtual company, this is the entire team, this is the way pharmaceuticals are developed in the United States now. We operate through a wide network of consultants, but it allows us have very flexible burn rate that we spend money when we're doing studies and we can really roll back our expenses we're not doing studies. With a small team though, we really make use of our large and accomplished board. First I want to say about our board that they are all investors in our company and together management and board are a very significant part of all of the capital that's been raised in the company so far.

    I just want to highlight 3 board members to show you how valuable our board is. One is Donald Landry, who is acofounder of the company, but is also the chairman of the department of medicine at Columbia University, so he is a national figure, an international figure, in academic medicine. Also, want to feature Doctor Ernest Mario. He's the former CEO of Glaxo, the global pharmaceutical company, but he also has been the CEO of two smaller companies that are very relevant to what we're doing and that I feature here to show your experience. He was the CEO of Alza, which developedConcerta and he brought Concerta up to blockbuster status and sold Alza to J&J for $11 billion dollars and I mentioned that because Concerta is a reformulation of Ritalin, which was a CNS drug that was already available, so by reformulating it, he made a very significant improvement in it and was able to create a lot of value for investors.

    He also was the CEO of a company called Reliant and that brought to market in an omega-3 product, the first omega-3 prescription product in the United States, and he sold that to Glaxo. That product is now selling about $1.4 billion dollars a year in the United States and it just shows that he has a very good command and understanding of what's required to get managed-care reimbursement for products in the United States.

    At the bottom, Doctor Sam Sacks was Doctor Mario's Lieutenant at Alza, so played an important role in Concerta. But, he was also the founder and founding CEO of a company called Jazz. The ticker is J.A.Z.Z, and that was also based on a reformulation of a drug for the central nervous system condition, that's marketed in the United States as Ziram. And, Jazz has just crossed the $5 billion dollar threshold in terms of market capitalization. So, we have people that have been very successful in doing exactly what we're doing, which is bringing new life to active ingredients, that have been known and that creating new and differentiated products with formulation technology and really changing the condition of people by these new techniques. "

    Tonix can very legitimately be a half billion dollar company in less than a year. So why are they not now? They just uplifted to Nasdaq a couple months ago, and they have basically no coverage from the analysts - only Roth has a price target on them, and it is more than a double at $8.50. They just raised money and are now fully funded through the current 2b trial, and if things go well they will get a partner and have no need to issue more shares.

    Fully diluted they have about 9 million shares total (warrants with strikes from $4.25 up to the $25). If the stock traded at $10 a share that would still only put them at only $90 million fully diluted (even counting the warrants that would not be exercised), and that is not anywhere near the value of their future cash flows.

    The company has repeatedly said that they will hold out for their real value, they call it the "Celgene contingency," in thatCelegene would not partner or be bought out at a low price, stayed independent, and 14 years later is a $60 billion company. Tonix is run by succesful people bound for more success, however they get there will be fine.

    I am not done writing on this and will probably not be done for 2 weeks or so. Here are some places to start researching Tonix:

    Summary Presentation:

    http://content.stockpr.com/tonixpharma/media/dd44fec102324e47e16e8f3c0bb88bed.pdf

    2a Study results:

    jrheum.org/content/early/2011/08/30/jrhe....pdf

    Rodman and Renshaw Presentation:

    wsw.com/webcast/rrshq23/register.aspx?co.../

    Please do your due diligence on this one if you like it, I like it but there are no guarantees,

    All the best,

    Joe

    Disclosure: I am long TNXP.

    Themes: Fibromyalgia, PTSD Stocks: TNXP
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Comments (64)
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  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Working links!

     

    2596 Patients Study:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aJkxww

     

    Summary Presentation:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aJkAbG

     

    2a Study:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aJkxwG

     

    R&R:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aJkxMU
    31 Oct 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • bkfViking123
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    the only thing i would add....is more men have it than revealed..they have scotch..it's miller time
    31 Oct 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Joe, one other thing I would like to add is that patients should have a much easier time being diagnosed with FM now that there is a diagnostic test that has a 99% sensitivity rate. This will most likely result in more cases of FM as doctors have had many problems diagnosing these patients in the past.

     

    http://bit.ly/HuPDQe
    31 Oct 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you Jeff!

     

    ...and thank you for finding TNXP and bringing it to my attention!
    31 Oct 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    No problem, thanks for covering it!
    31 Oct 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • sheldond
    , contributor
    Comments (1126) | Send Message
     
    Joe,

     

    Great work on this. This could end up being a really special opportunity.

     

    Jeff good find.

     

    Best,

     

    D
    31 Oct 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks D!
    31 Oct 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • billyjoerob
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. A warrant means that the holder has to buy the shares at strike price, right? So warrant strike prices higher than current price would be the opposite of dilutive, whatever that is. So it's like a series of capital raises from here to $9 or whatever.
    31 Oct 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    Exactly, so if the price goes up it also adds financing to the company, i.e. no raises at less than market value.. Joe worked it out this way.

     

    "the dilution goes hand in hand with financing, if 4 million warrants are exercised at $10 that's $40 million in TNXP's coffers."
    31 Oct 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    Also, Tonix has stated already that if they do the next pivotal study alone without a partner it will only cost them another $25Mil to do it and then they can file their NDA. Thats insanity to basically spend less than $50mil on clinical trials to have a drug approved that could do at minimum $200mil peak sales a year. Talk about an unbelievable return on investment..
    31 Oct 2013, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • billyjoerob
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    What goes wrong? What are the downsides here? I see that one of the patents lasts only til 2018. What if doctors decide the sublingual isn't that much better than off-patent version? Or what if the benefits are sufficiently marginal that doctors don't prescribe anything? Some patients report the effect wears off rather quickly.
    31 Oct 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    There's not much downside into data in 11 months, the stock is trading at a mere $22mil market cap, by the time the data comes out for the first pivotal trial it should be at least $50Mil which is basically a double from here. 11 months and over 100% gain.. If data comes out with good numbers then it could easily reach 100-300mil cap depending on the numbers.. Keep researching.. Theres a lot to this story, you just have to put the pieces together.
    31 Oct 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep and there are cashless provisions also, in which case less shares would be issued and no money collected.

     

    Example:

     

    Own six warrants with exercise price of $20, stock is trading at $30, instead of paying $120 for six shares warrant holder could choose 2 shares for free ($60 profit buys 2 shares at market price).
    31 Oct 2013, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • petethepanzer
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    i think i read the fibro market hits 1.8b in 2018

     

    if there is no other potent drug in this category would you not expect them to completely dominate the market with at least 400m sales
    1 Nov 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All the other drugs come off patent I think by 2019, for now Tonix would have the only patented prescription. At least in one of the projections I saw that patent expiration impacted the sales forecast for the whole market.
    1 Nov 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yeah, this projects $1.8 billion in 2020, up from $1.6 billion in 2010, but it is misleading RE: generics replacing patented drugs and also does not account for the FDA bringing focus to the disease:

     

    http://bit.ly/1f8qoOW

     

    http://bit.ly/1h65vbs
    1 Nov 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • petethepanzer
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    so your saying it could be even higher than projected
    1 Nov 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think the market wide projections tend to short shrift how well received a bedtime treatment will be.
    1 Nov 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    I agree Joe, especially when you consider that as far as symptoms go with fm, non restorative sleep is higher than pain. That's big!
    1 Nov 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • billyjoerob
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    Why is Joe standing in front of two ferns? It's really not helping his credibility. It looks like he's taping a bad corporate training film. (Things I wonder while waiting for some kids to knock on my door and make adorable threats).
    31 Oct 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yeah, that's from my first video, I need to change that : ) I'll have another go at the vids next year.
    31 Oct 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    The sublingual formulation is different in that it goes directly into the bloodstream without passing through the liver. The issue with the generic cbp is that there is a buildup of a metabolite called norcylclobenzaprine. This buildup causes the system to become immune and makes the drug less effective.
    31 Oct 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is some more info on that:

     

    http://bit.ly/HrikwO
    4 Nov 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    The patent that's off 2018 is method of use. The patent they have applied for that Joe referred to as the OxyContin patent is the pk patent. This is the same patent Purdue has used for OxyContin and will extend out till 2033
    31 Oct 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (236) | Send Message
     
    Excellent background. I jumped in earlier today in a big way. This price should climb as investors accumulate.

     

    Anyone know shares owner by insiders and institutions? I'm wondering what the float is here.
    31 Oct 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you Red Bull
    31 Oct 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    Sabby owns almost 10%, other than that, according to Dr. Lederman at the warsaw conference, he stated that management and the BOD's have basically funded the company themselves thus far. That's saying something with that BOD's..

     

    http://bit.ly/1h4vnnW
    31 Oct 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • petethepanzer
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    if tonix succeeded it would be the only drug for fibro that actually reduced the symptoms of the disease

     

    im not aware of any other company pursuing fibro but if there was then they would also be a great investment

     

    peak sales potential of 600m-1b
    1 Nov 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • INcontrol
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Dawson James Securities has been instrumental in floating this company's success in the capital markets.
    1 Nov 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    I've not heard of them but I do know that Tom Redington is the companies IR and the same company that took Celgene to the next level. In fact, I believe Tom himself was at the Warsaw Conference with Dr. Lederman as Dr. Lederman pointed towards him in the crowd.
    1 Nov 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Lederman pointed towards him in the crowd."

     

    Now that is some DD!

     

    Info on Redington:
    http://bit.ly/1aszO8y

     

    Working with Tonix:
    http://bit.ly/1aszQ07
    1 Nov 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    Lol.. Was that sarcasm Joe? I was just making a point that Tom Redington was there in the flesh and not one of his minions.. Why would he care so much about a 20 million dollar company? As to fly all the way to Warsaw?
    1 Nov 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I completely agree! I just admire the attention to detail!
    1 Nov 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    Ah, ok. ;) Thanks, I have probably spent more time researching this stock than any other one I have ever come across.
    1 Nov 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Like poring over a Picasso, you picked a beauty!
    1 Nov 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    The thing I like about this company the most is that its not trying to save the world or anything like that. Its just simply focusing on an unmet medical need and management knows how to capitalize on it. I love the fact that its not a romantic stock at all, which is why I believe its so under the radar..
    1 Nov 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Rodney Watson
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    I like the idea of a talented, focused, experienced management team. However when I looked to see how much of the company they owned, it was less than 6% (on yahoo! finance). Doesn't that seem low?
    2 Nov 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't think that's right, The CEO himself has about that much, I think it's in the neighborhood of 25% inside ownership.
    2 Nov 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is from the latest Annual report so its from before the 2013 financing:

     

    "Our officers, directors and principal shareholders, in the aggregate, beneficially own or control the votes of approximately 46.5% of
    our outstanding Common Stock."

     

    And no insiders have sold..
    2 Nov 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • billyjoerob
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    The last offering sold at $4.25 and included 1 warrant/share, I think. So if we value the warrant at 50c, then a buyer can sell shares down to $3.75 and still make a profit. Selling at $4.25, the buyers breakeven and keep the warrant for $0 invested, not a bad deal. So I think you're seeing a lot of embedded sellers at $4.25 that are not necessarily bearish, just looking to get their investment back and reduce their risk.
    2 Nov 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I completely agree, there were 3 million of those units, if they can get $4.25 a share even a bull would have to consider immediately getting your money back AND still having the upside. Once those are chewed through I think it will drift higher, there are not many people that knew enough about the company to buy it and would now be bearish for some reason to sell. I don't see where the sellers would come from until the $3.60 - $4.25 crowd hits a level where they want to take some profits, it could get to $7 or $8 pretty quick IMO.
    2 Nov 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Also given how few shares there are it would not be surprising if there are no shares available to short, and that's what ETRADE shows. And at last update only 2,700 shares were shorted:

     

    http://bit.ly/16VS75b
    2 Nov 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (236) | Send Message
     
    This is some good information. If insiders own almost half, and demand increases as this stock becomes more well known, TNXP could see huge gains.

     

    Joe, I noticed the link you offered shows the float at just 1.3 million shares!
    2 Nov 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you, as of the latest 10-Q:

     

    "As of August 14, 2013, there were 4,877,490 shares of registrant’s common stock outstanding."

     

    That's a very small amount - after this gets above 5 (my opinion that it will) there is a good chance of some big fish trying to move in, and especially with no shares available to short it could really surge on such a small float.
    2 Nov 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Also those $4.25 warrants don't expire until 2018, so there is almost no chance they would be exercised soon at any price, and they may even start trading publicly.
    2 Nov 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the info Joe, if we can get some regular volume here I think we will see a steady climb.
    3 Nov 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    If the float was 1.3 million shares... THEY ALL TRADED TODAY!
    Surely there was some active getting in and getting out today... trading. Some folks can't even hold for a DAY. Long TNXP
    4 Dec 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (236) | Send Message
     
    Depends how much money you have in the game :) I wouldn't keep a massive sum in because this one is going to fluctuate a lot in either direction. Low float works both ways, so tread carefully.
    4 Dec 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    Good advice Red Bull... but I'm not much of a trader... don't have a massive sum in... about 8% of my portfolio...in for the long haul. Will watch the daily fluctuations but keep my focus for TNXP for this time next year. Thanks... Long TNXP
    4 Dec 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They linked to the blog : )

     

    http://bit.ly/1cAgCrg
    4 Nov 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    Nice, clearly they thought it was a significant post given that they did'nt even give the Roth Analyst upgrade coverage who is a nationally known analyst. That's pretty sweet. Guess that answers the question you had about the follower..;)
    4 Nov 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    3:10-3:40 pm
    Biotech Valuations in 2013
    Chris Collins, Citi Healthcare; Robert Forrester, Verastem; Leland Gershell, TONIX Pharmaceuticals; Mathai Mammen, Theravance
    Moderator: Mike King, JMP Securities

     

    Looks like Dr. Gershell will be speaking at the Boston Biotech Conference. An interesting topic indeed.. I'm curious if it will be a public address.
    4 Nov 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting topic indeed. For a CFO he has an impressive science background:

     

    "Dr. Gershell’s prior industry experience includes affiliations with Targent Pharmaceuticals, where he facilitated capital raising, and with Vela Pharmaceuticals, where he was responsible for the evaluation of pharmaceutical assets for in-licensing. He earned his M.D. and Ph.D. in Organic Chemistry from Columbia University and his B.A. magna cum laude in Chemistry and Asian Studies from Dartmouth College. Dr. Gershell is an inventor on Columbia’s patents for SAHA/vorinostat, which is marketed by Merck as Zolinza® and is the first histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor to receive FDA approval."
    4 Nov 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • WhiteTiger575
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Joe, once again you shine.
    13 Nov 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you very much White Tiger.
    13 Nov 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • billyjoerob
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    so does anyone think this BBC presentation will move the stock? we will find out I guess in a few minutes.
    13 Nov 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BBC presentation? Link? Do tell!
    13 Nov 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • billyjoerob
    , contributor
    Comments (288) | Send Message
     
    boston biotech conference. don't get too excited.
    13 Nov 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL. The CEO is in China today:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aEWVaf
    13 Nov 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ah, Leland Gershell:

     

    http://bit.ly/17q6EkE
    13 Nov 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • JKenser
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    Did you see the price tag of that conference? 2 g's!
    13 Nov 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2303) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Geez! Geez!
    13 Nov 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • ericgass
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    thank you Joe, I never would have heard of Tonix if I hadn't read your articles. Thank you
    30 Dec 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Josh Ginsburg
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    Joe quick question,

     

    You state, "Tonix completed a phase 2a double blind, placebo controlled, multi-center trial of 36 fibromyalgia patients takingsublingual cyclobenzaprine or placebo for 8 weeks, and then tested for changes in pain, fatigue, tenderness, anxiety, and depression."

     

    In looking at the 2a study it does not appear that this tested the sublingual version of CBP, but rather the standard oral version. What makes you think this was the sublingual formulation? Hopefully you are right and I am wrong, but I'd just like to figure this out here.

     

    Best,

     

    Josh
    8 Jan, 09:49 PM Reply Like
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