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Joe Springer
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  • Q3 Update 23 comments
    Nov 4, 2013 6:03 PM | about stocks: TNXP, MNKD, TA, IMUC, HYGS, WSR, GTXI

    We (the royal we) are waiting for the MannKind conference call to begin, and the wait music is killer! We like it because it is repetitive. Let's catch up on our stocks while we wait:

    TravelCenters of America (NYSE:TA)

    Our first pick of the year TravelCenters had a breakout quarter of sorts, its investment into developing new centers is starting to bear fruit. From the call:

    Thomas M. O'Brien - Chief Executive Officer, President, Managing Director and Director

    TA's third quarter 2013 financial results contain a great number of positive indicators, principal among those indicators is a $4 million growth in EBITDAR for the quarter to $88 million. A key factor affecting TA's EBITDAR for the quarter was an increase in contributions from the locations purchased, since our current acquisition initiative began in earnest in 2011...It takes some time, we estimate about 3 years, after acquisition and completion of renovations for a new location to become fully integrated into the TA Petro network, and to produce stabilized financial results. As of the beginning of the 2013 third quarter, properties purchased since the beginning of 2011 were substantially complete for a weighted average period of only about 7 months...We expect to continue to acquire new travel center sites and to integrate them into our nationwide network. We still see a fair amount of opportunity in our pipeline of acquisitions. We closed 6 acquisitions in 2013 before the end of the third quarter, and 4 travel center acquisitions were pending as of the end of that quarter.

    TA is not going to be returning cash to shareholders any time soon, but the growth story is firmly intact.

    Whitestone REIT (NYSE:WSR):

    Speaking of returning cash to shareholders, Whitestone was our pick that returned more cash to shareholders than it made! But sadly, those rock and roll days may be over as WSR just released its Q3 results an its Funds From Operations Core (which eliminates one time charges and credits) came in at 29 cents per share, which covers its quarterly dividend of 28.5 cents. We'll have a listen to the call tomorrow and report back.

    Edit: I was joking that it was "sad" that their Funds From Operations Core covered their dividend, it is obviously happy! : )

    Immunocellular Therapeutics (NYSEMKT:IMUC):

    Immunocellular reports on Wednesday. The CEO has implied that he would, but has not fully commited to, promptly announce when they are made aware of study results. We are hoping Mr. Gengos will be asked point blank, and maybe we will ask him ourselves, if he will commit to doing so (if he does not announce on Wednesday that the trial is in fact already completed). The uncertainty over this does not seem to have any benefit to the company and may be holding the stock back.

    Hydrogenics (NASDAQ:HYGS)

    Hydrogenics part-parent Commscope (COM) went public in October and we got to see that they are widening their marketing of Hydrogenics' fuel cell backup power for broadband networks. Hydrogenics reports Thursday and we are looking forward to an update.

    Tonix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TNXP)

    Tonix looks like one of the best buys in the market, check out the comments if you have not, shares can be had for sub-$4.25 and when they are gone sellers may be scarce.

    GTXI (NASDAQ:GTXI)

    GTXI gives us an update next Tuesday, we'll have a listen and report back.

    MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD)

    Alrighty, call started. I like Hakan Edstrom saying not only is the filing going according to plan, but he would certainly update shareholders right away if anything material changed, he said this throughout the call. That's nice, the market likes clarity.

    Looks like two new previously undisclosed studies: one of hundreds of primary care physicians and 100+ endocrinologists showing 86% said they would prescribe Afrezza. The other is the juvenile diabetes research foundation with UCSD and the Samson clinic are using Afrezza along with an artificial pancreas, and it seems to be going well, results should be available in a few months.

    Al describes getting through the long process and now sees "light at the end of the tunnel."

    Al expects patients to be excited promoters of Afrezza, that certainly jives with anecdotal online accounts of Afrezza use.

    Question for Hakan: would you launch w/o partner? The answer is that in absence of a global partner they would entertain regional partners, some of whom are being aggressive now, but they want a global partner.

    Should have all 3 finishing lines manufacturing within 6 months of approval.

    In discussion with payors it seems Afrezza should at least get a premium (for safety, efficacy, and convenience) that insulin pens enjoy over needles, about 20%. This is new and bullish, the CFO has consistently modeled a single digit premium.

    Email joespringernews@gmail.com to be added to our free newsletter.

    Disclosure: I am long TNXP, MNKD, IMUC, HYGS, WSR, GTXI.

    Stocks: TNXP, MNKD, TA, IMUC, HYGS, WSR, GTXI
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Comments (23)
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  • Argyll
    , contributor
    Comments (761) | Send Message
     
    So does that mean WSR is okay now?
    4 Nov 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2171) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I never thought it was not okay, just not traditional. I'll listen to the call tomorrow and report back.
    4 Nov 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Argyll
    , contributor
    Comments (761) | Send Message
     
    You wrote "...Whitestone was our pick that returned more cash to shareholders than it made! But sadly, those rock and roll days may be over..." Are you being facetious or serious?
    4 Nov 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2171) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If you click the "our pick" link it was indeed a pick of mine, even though its FFO did not cover the dividend. I still like it, but I'm pretending to be less excited now that they look like they are covering the dividend, as in it is less dangerous and exciting so I am disappointed, but I'm kidding about that part.
    4 Nov 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • CC1972
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    Hey Joe,
    What do you think the bottom will be on MNKD?
    Thanks for all the articles.
    5 Nov 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2171) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't know, I guess with no immediate partner announcement the shorts can load up a little.

     

    Another theory - if you think MNKD is very valuable, and you want to buy it out or get leverage in partner talks, you might short the stock to get a cheaper price or make it harder for MNKD to raise money in the capital markets and go it alone. It would also be a hedge - if your talks fell through your short might be a gain.

     

    It's a theory anyway.
    5 Nov 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • MichaelJ8
    , contributor
    Comments (603) | Send Message
     
    problem with being short is that you can only make 100% on your investment. this is biotech, I want 10000%!!

     

    Long mnkd, oncs,gale,cur,oncy,actc, idix.

     

    Basically anything other than retirement at 35 is unacceptable. Either I make millions, or I'm living on the street.
    15 Nov 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    +1 to you sir. I like your approach.
    15 Nov 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Chemist357
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    $MNKD

     

    I like your Merk idea about a partner...what about Pfizer if I recall right they own or at least did about 20 million shares. Unless of course I have that wrong.
    5 Nov 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2171) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's interesting, I'm not sure about the ownership, but Pfizer supplied their isulin:

     

    http://bit.ly/17Kom5V
    5 Nov 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Chemist357
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    Wow for the life of me I can't find it but can only sniff around the edges. Been an investor with MNKD since 2010...I recall info in the 10-K from 3/16/10 & 3/22/11

     

    http://bit.ly/175KGmM

     

    If I recall right Mannkink was buying the Manufacturing Frankfurt Gmbh for up to 33 million, and Pfizer exercised/choose to be paid in stock options or restricted stock or some warrant system

     

    Maybe this is what was canceled but I am not sure:
    Exhibit 2.1
    ***Text Omitted and Filed Separately with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
    Confidential Treatment Requested
    Under 17 C.F.R Sections 200.80(b)(4)
    And 240.24b-2

     

    PFIZER MANUFACTURING FRANKFURT GMBH
    PFIZER INC

     

    RM 2875 VERMOGENSVERWALTUNGS GMBH
    (in future: Mannkind Detshcland Gmbh)

     

    AND

     

    MANNKIND CORPORTAION

     

    LIP ASSEST OR BUSINESS SALE AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT

     

    Anyway if you so desire Look into the 10-k report from 3/16/10 & 3/22/11 with references to Manufacturing Frankfort GmbH...will list as exhibit 2.1 or some other numbering system.

     

    Just curious if this is smoke or if it was indeed canceled as part of the insulin purchase agreement?

     

    33 million for the factory or the machinery inside does sound different than the 3 million for the insulin purchase price agreement.

     

    Thanks
    5 Nov 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Vanmaarsum
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    #IMUC

     

    Joe have you spoken to Mr. Gengos or to IR?
    If not, what is your source of this (new) info?
    5 Nov 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2171) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've had no contact with the company but I don't think it's new:

     

    "Once the data analysis has been completed and communicated to the company we will be in a position to announce the top-line results publicly"

     

    http://bit.ly/HyaO3r

     

    I tend to take that at face value, that they will announce when they know, but "in a position to" is not the same thing as "definitely will" and it seems that no news is being taken as uncertainty, rather than good news.
    5 Nov 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Vanmaarsum
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    I doubt this will happen. I think they will stick with their orginal plan:

     

    Because of that analysis will involve the entire data set based from the trial we estimate it will take three to four months to four months to complete following reaching the 64 event.

     

    So we will hear the results in Q1 or Q2.
    6 Nov 2013, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2171) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just so everyone is clear on what the CEO said on the last conference call:

     

    "we also anticipate that the analysis of the safety and efficacy data from the Phase II trial will require some time. Because of that analysis will involve the entire data set based from the trial we estimate it will take three to four months to four months to complete following reaching the 64 event.

     

    What will happen during that three to four months time frame is, reviewing of
    the file for every patient in the study, verifying that the 64 events have actually occurred, verifying the database, resolving all open issues or questions, locking the database un-blinding the trial and conducting the predefined statistical analysis.

     

    Based on this timeline, we estimate that the top line read-out of the final data
    maybe available for us to announce publicly in the fourth quarter of 2013 or the first quarter of 2014. I want to emphasize that this anticipated timeline is based on our current estimate for when we specifically event and the subsequent data analysis process.

     

    It's important to remember that all company personnel have remained blinded to the data from the interim analysis and all company personnel plan to remain blinded to the results from this trial until we receive the top-line data read out from the contract research organization.

     

    No one inside or outside of the company has had or will have any basis on which to predict the outcome of this trial until it is completed in the data are analyzed. Once the data analysis has been completed and communicated to the company we'll be in a position to announce the top-line results publicly"
    6 Nov 2013, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • gsterling
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    I just finished listening to the WSR conference call. I was very impressed by managements' answers to the analyst questions. I'm actually surprised that the stock is down today. Did you catch anything that might be considered negative?
    5 Nov 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2171) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm going to listen tonight, I'll post.
    5 Nov 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Crossroads
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    I listened to the call yesterday. I agree with gsterling that the management sounded very impressive. Mr. Mann sounded very relaxed and confident. I don't want to speculate on anything, however, it is about time and the sp will speak for itself. It's a great pick, Joe. Thanks for all you informative write-ups on Mannkind. Look forward to your post on cc.
    5 Nov 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Argyll
    , contributor
    Comments (761) | Send Message
     
    Any comments on WSR?
    6 Nov 2013, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Bio Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    If I were a billionaire, I'd be relaxed and confident too :)
    7 Nov 2013, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Brooks Was Here
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Hey Joe, just curious of the estimated timing on the Tonix article?

     

    Thanks in advance
    6 Nov 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2171) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey Brooks, my goal is a week from Monday, it should be somwhere reasonably near that..
    6 Nov 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Brooks Was Here
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Joe!
    7 Nov 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
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