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  • IMUC Wrap-Up 29 comments
    Nov 7, 2013 7:35 AM | about stocks: IMUC

    Just a quick note after listening to the IMUC call, most everything was unchanged and re-iterated. The trial is still running and that is very good. There has been concern and confusion about when and if the company will announce when the trial is complete, and we got clarity:

    The company will *not* announce when they learn that the trial has ended, BUT within 72 hours of receiving top line results they will share those results in a press release. That time lag should not be too long, my guess is a week or two based on the CEO's past comments on verifying that they have in fact had 64 events.

    So that is good, IMO opinion no news can be taken as good news minus a fortnight.

    Other news:

    • filed for EU Orphan status
    • ICT-121 has begun phase I trial and will start enrolling shortly
    • inbound and outbound strategy - looking at in-licensing more products and forming alliances to market ICT-107 outside of the US, having global "exploratory discussions"

    They talked about plenty of other things but mostly they repeated and re-iterated positions already taken. Overall a very good call, the trial is good news and we know what to expect.

    Disclosure: I am long IMUC.

    Stocks: IMUC
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Comments (29)
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  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (444) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Joe! Holding long and strong! One would think it's high time for other investors to begin accumulating and holding.
    7 Nov 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Dennis, with each passing day the intrigue builds, it was big that they announced that the trial is still running a week into November, does not mean anything for sure but the case gets better every day..
    7 Nov 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • pagreen1966
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update sir. This could be a winner and I will be adding to my position in (IMUC) later on this day!
    7 Nov 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you sir!
    7 Nov 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • The Reluctant Fundamentalist
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    sorry can you clarify, did you say that the company did have their 64 events? That would mean the trial is over no?
    7 Nov 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They did not have the 64th event yet, when they do they will verify the events and then receive and release top line data.
    7 Nov 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • NSmytheson
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    "...the trial is good news and we know what to expect." Biotech is a field where we can expect the unexpected. I'm long IMUC, but hope this investment does not have in store for me what Amarin did.
    7 Nov 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • aaeid
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Hi Joe,
    I am long IMUC. IMUC pps has been down 30% since early August. Most IMUC investors expected a run up in Q4 13. Unfortunately this did not happen. Even worse, the stock price started yesterday a strong movement (with high volume) at the wrong direction.
    Most small biotech investors (me included) plan to benefit from a run up few weeks or months prior to results announcement by selling a part of their position to take profits before such highly risky binary event.
    Do you expect a run up to start soon? I think unless IMUC management specifies a clear DATE within the next few weeks for announcing trial results, it will be difficult for a run up to take place. Most investors need to know exactly the results date so that they can plan their trading accordingly. What do you think?
    9 Nov 2013, 03:14 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I hear what you are saying but they can't give a date because the trial is event based, we have to wait just like they do. The company was saying that a successful trial could have ended in Q3 and now we are in November, that guarantees nothing but it hints at success. I have no idea what will happen with the price while we wait, but success in the trial would mean this company is worth billions IMO.
    9 Nov 2013, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • hatvani
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    The sad irony of the "event" is that these are actually deaths of patients. We should take the delay positively as it most likely means that the treatment is working in actually prolonging the lives of the terminally ill. I tend to agree with Joe that delay is good news unless of course there is something we don't know. And there are plenty as I learnt painfully from AMRN. Still positive here though.
    10 Nov 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • aaeid
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Joe.

     

    What I meant to say is: Will IMUC give a date for results anouncement as soon as they have the 64th event? As shareholders we should not expect to wake up one day on the trial results news, but should know the date few weeks in advance. Right?
    9 Nov 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (444) | Send Message
     
    I believe they have stated that after they are alerted that the 64th event has occurred, they will go into fact checking mode to confirm all that, which might take a couple of weeks, THEN let us know the trial has ended. As far as top line results... I think they said 2-3 months after that. Anyone else chime in here... is that close to what's been said? Thanks. Long IMUC
    9 Nov 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Knowledgable commenter P Man says that process typically takes 3-6 weeks. In Gengos' comments about the midterm report he said after 32 events the independent team will go out and verify that that is the case, and then they we will notify IMUC whether to continue the trial (based on analysis of safety and efficacy). The 64th event should be similar - verification of 32 events and then they we will be notified about safety and efficacy. He said this process takes "several weeks."
    9 Nov 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • hatvani
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    So we don't even have a midterm report?
    10 Nov 2013, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Midterm report happened beginning of June, the trial was continued based on safety and efficacy:

     

    http://bit.ly/1dVtWnk
    10 Nov 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hatvani the quote I was referring to came from a conference before the June report.
    10 Nov 2013, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • hatvani
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Joe.
    10 Nov 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • det9
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    Joe,

     

    Is there any evidence big boys are accumulating this since they are the first ones to know anyways? Thanks
    10 Nov 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • aaeid
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Joe,

     

    As per shortsqueze.com, IMUC's % owned by insiders is just 4% and % owned by institutios is only 12.8%. As an IMUC shareholder into the upcoming trial results, I wish those figures would have been much higher. Why we don't see any significant insitutional buying so far? Any thoughts on this?
    10 Nov 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (444) | Send Message
     
    As far as institutional buyers, my understanding is that many have an aversion to buying stocks priced under $5. In fact, so I hear, some funds are actually PROHIBITED (they promise not to) buy and stock with a pps under $5. This could be a large factor. Anyone agree or disagree?
    10 Nov 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's what I was going to say too Dennis. If you look at MannKind as soon as it went to 5 it went straight to 8 without looking back, and that was on no news:

     

    http://bit.ly/17Xb5qO

     

    TA did basically the same:

     

    http://bit.ly/17Xb7Pt

     

    And then aaeid as far as insiders I don't think that number is including last week's compensation package update.
    10 Nov 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • det9
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for info.
    10 Nov 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • see punjabi
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Joe,
    Is it a good time to add IMUC to take advantage of run up into data release?
    Thanks
    12 Nov 2013, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IMO if the data comes back looking good this will have been a great time to buy in retro, I happen to think that way but the range of possibilities is wide.
    12 Nov 2013, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The data will decide:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Nov 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (444) | Send Message
     
    Bought more yesterday... not a falling knife but a slver spoon tied to a golden balloon wafted down within my reach by the wind... and now again ascending skyward. Hopefully not toward a pie-in-the-sky.
    12 Nov 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (444) | Send Message
     
    Argh! The pretty spoon and ballon came back down! Could be Smith on Stocks rather negative view... he was wrong on his last prediction. Maybe should grab that silver spoon again.
    12 Nov 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » He just repeated what he's already said, wanted to put his name next to the decline.
    12 Nov 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (444) | Send Message
     
    I'm hoping Glaxco SMITH Kline will chime in next ON this STOCK.
    12 Nov 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
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