Email email@example.com to be added to my free newsletter, sent this out yesterday morning:
I wanted to give you a heads up that I am working on an in-depth article on Adamis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ADMP).
Adamis is similar to Tonix in that they just raised funds/reverse split/uplisted to Nasdaq, and also did a reverse merger to go public so they never had an IPO (or the accompanying fanfare). Like Tonix they are also bringing their products along the 505(b)(2) path to approval.
Some key points:
1) Epinephrine PFS - Adamis should announce an NDA for their first product this quarter, an epinephrine pre-filled syringe, which has an excellent chance to be approved in early 2015.
This product will compete with the epi-pen, which is sold in packs of two for almost $400, and goes bad after about a year. The market in the US is almost $1 billion, and one nice thing about this is that Adamis intends to bring it to market by themselves, targeting hospitals and institutions with about 10 of their own salespeople (rather than primary care physicians with an army sales people), as a lower cost alternative to the epi-pen.
Doctors and nurses are not squeamish, and the epi-pen was designed for people that don't like to see the needle. We think a lower cost alternative could take a lot of market share, and the syringes are not complex or expensive to make. This can generate revenues starting next year, and has an excellent chance for approval in that epinephrine is already approved and this is not a new formulation. Even if Adamis only gets a small share of the market it would represent a lot of revenue.
2) APC-5000 - Adamis acquired the rights to a 3M Dry Powder Inhaler to compete as a branded generic alternative to the Advair Diskus device in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This DPI technology is superior to the current Advair device, and Advair comes off patent in early 2016. How is business for Advair? It's doing $8 billion in annual global sales, $4 billion in the US. Again this is low risk in that the drug is already approved, the inhaler just needs to perform, and 3M's products have one of the best records in inhaler approvals.
APC-5000 is the big upside for Adamis, and could ultimately surpass a billion in annual revenue. This one screams for a partner - the market is vast and a superior product could take a lot of share. Adamis will run its first trial this year, and is targeting 2016-17 for approval.
3) A deep pipeline - Adamis also has APC-1000, an inhaled oral steroid, to compete as a low cost alternative with QVAR. QVAR does $1 billion in annual sales in asthma and COPD, and comes off patent next July. Adamis will run a phase 3 trial in the second half of this year, and should apply for approval next year. Again this is not a new formulation so the approval risk is very low.
They also have APC-3000, a gas-propelled nasal treatment for allergic rhinitis to compete with unpleasant liquid treatments, which could be up for approval by 2017.
Additionally they have four cancer vaccine technologies that seem to be on the back burner for now, but represent an interesting call option - the patents were funded with $18 million in federal grants and were thought enough of to be litigated over in court.
4) Value - 27 institutions recently funded Adamis at $5.95 per share, including reputable Sabby and Special Situations, the recent biotech pullback really pulled Adamis down and it is currently trading at a discount to that funding.
Fully diluted Adamis has 14 million shares. If we use MAP Pharma as a comparison (got bought out last year, did an early partnership for development) and value Adamis at 2X peak revenues (assuming approvals, which are likely), then the share price can go much higher. A quarter billion in sales is hardly out of the question, and a $500 million market cap means $35.71 per share, and that could just be the beginning, especially in the Advair market.
The two analysts that have initiated coverage have a $15 price target:
Attached you can find the latest investor presentation, and here is the latest quarterly report:
Please do your due diligence on this one if you like it, I like it but there are no guarantees,
All the best,
Disclosure: I am long ADMP.