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  • What Is Tonix Worth? 89 comments
    Jul 29, 2014 7:46 PM | about stocks: TNXP

    We are going to take a page from the great Chris DeMuth Jr. and open the floor for debate:

    What is Tonix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TNXP) worth?

    We offer three considerations:

    1) BESTFIT - the trial ends by August 4, here is some background

    2) Pipeline - All programs are advancing in quarters 3 and 4, Tonix has $50 million in cash - AtEase, TNX-201, TNX-301, small pox, and radiation protection (filing from July, and we confirmed with CFO as well):

    (click to enlarge)

    3) Pedigree - Consider the people involved, both management and the board of directors:

    • Chairman of the Department of Medicine at Columbia University (Dr. Donald Landry), who is also the co-founder along with the CEO
    • Founder/CEO of JAZZ Pharma (Dr. Samuel Saks)
    • Former CEO of Glaxo and Alza (Dr. Ernest Mario), also on the board at Celgene, he sold Alza for $11 Billion to J&J

    We think Tonix is soon to discover a much higher valuation and share price, what do you think Tonix is worth?

    Disclosure: The author is long TNXP.

    Stocks: TNXP
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Comments (89)
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  • New Bee
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    I will sell half my shares at 40. Holding unto the other half till the company disappoints me.

     

    Hopefully 40 comes this year else its a waiting game :)
    29 Jul 2014, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • tkswett
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    I believe we will see 18 by Oct. announcement of results, 65 by end of year and 100 by end 2015.
    29 Jul 2014, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » One other thing about the pipeline is that a sleep quality drug that helps in FM and PTSD may help in the related conditions, and may also help in unrelated conditions with disturbed sleep. If you look at Celgene's plans for the future they are bringing their current drugs along for a huge number of other indications (2013 Annual Report):

     

    http://bit.ly/UJt6Vn

     

    The fact that TNX-102 SL works by improving sleep quality means it could be helpful in a large number of other indications that have disturbed sleep. From one of TNX-102 SL's patent applications:

     

    http://bit.ly/1qtgE7E

     

    "Therefore we believe that a low dose cyclobenzaprine will be effective for treating depression, including major depressive disorder....Furthermore, the utility of a very low dose cyclobenzaprine as an agent for improving the quality of sleep, as a sleep deepener, or for treating sleep disturbances has been investigated. The very low dosage regimen was viewed as particularly useful in treating sleep disturbances caused by, exacerbated by or associated with fibromyalgia syndrome, prolonged fatigue, chronic fatigue, chronic fatigue syndrome, a sleep disorder, a psychogenic pain disorder, chronic pain syndrome (type II), the administration of a drug, autoimmune disease, stress or anxiety or for treating an illness caused by or exacerbated by sleep disturbances, and symptoms of such illness and generalized anxiety disorder. See US Patent Nos. 6,395,788 and 6,358,944"
    29 Jul 2014, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Mechanism of action is same as tricyclic anti-depressants so almost certainly will have a level of effectively for depression.
    29 Jul 2014, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, statistically significant improvements in pain, tenderness, and depression:

     

    http://bit.ly/1pw2T6M
    29 Jul 2014, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jeb Walport
    , contributor
    Comments (461) | Send Message
     
    Based on today's price I could use some of that .... :-(
    31 Jul 2014, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    The small float is a huge lever for TNXP. I expect 15+ into results. If results show strong p value and 40% pain reduction will have a quick double minimum. Pain reduction similar to phase 2a probably run to low 20's. Announcing a solid partnership prior or during final trial will move this to about 50 quickly. If hedges and tutes then get involved sky is the limit. Without partnership probably gets to 50 by end of year. With partnership 80+ likely.
    29 Jul 2014, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For approval they just need statistical significance in pain like in 2a. In 2a they showed statistically significant improvement in 3 of 5 symptoms. Pain could end up being the 2nd or 3rd reason patients take the treatment..
    29 Jul 2014, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Though I don't treat FM I do see plenty of patients who are on meds for it. These are some of the most miserably unhappy people you will meet. The pain is down to their core. So even though this drug won't get them out of pain, the majority will sleep much better and therefore take the edge off. From a doctor's perspective we just want to help in any way we can. I expect we will see a large number of Internists Rxing this if it accomplishes only the improved sleep as the safety profile is strong.
    29 Jul 2014, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you for the professional insight eyedoc.
    29 Jul 2014, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Approval will come, I am looking at what level of results will a) Look good on paper when reps come to visit the docs. Many drugs get approved then find low penetration in doctor's offices. B)Lead to a quick acceptance at a minimum as an add on to the already Rx'd drugs. The better these results are the higher estimates analysts will give to revenues. JMHO
    29 Jul 2014, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Agreed eyedoc.
    29 Jul 2014, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • 14195192
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    I spoke with a neurologist a few weeks about this oppty and he shrugged TNX-102 SL off. Stated would just use flexiril or other options and didn't think it would be a big seller.

     

    I bring this up because he wasn't impressed yet and didn't see the need. As Tonix builds awareness I feel the perception will change based on many of the points Joe has brought to all of us.

     

    I agree with eye doc and better data will lead to faster uptake otherwise why switch with what they are comfortable with?

     

    My guess is $15 in run up and with positive results $30 plus
    29 Jul 2014, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    He is right to a point. Flexeril is available generically only in 10 mg. The 10 mg taken systemically appears to lose effectivity over time, with the assumption being due to accumulation of by products from systemic metabolism. Tnx 102 is sublingual so will go right to bloodstream and limit byproducts. They will be running a long term study and my hope is that this bears out. Either way even though I will treat things off label, I would always prefer an approved med.
    29 Jul 2014, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • 14195192
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Excellent point regarding first pass metabolism. There is so much to like about this product I believe that physician education will ultimately be a driving factor behind usage and uptake.

     

    Tonix should consider this when partnering or if they hire a sales force make sure they hire the right reps.
    29 Jul 2014, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robert K. Stuart
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    I am a little baffled by the current share price. There was a steady trend until the recent offering, and now the price has stagnated - which is strange given the discussion you had with management, Joe. I can only guess that it is a mix of the Yellen comments, the macro environment for equities, and the fact that there has not been any significant news release from the company. I would say the value of the company going into the BESTFIT results would be conservatively priced - probably more in-line with Jason N.'s estimates - but who knows? Puma proves there is still some exuberance for biotech.
    29 Jul 2014, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • DeeMmm
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    Joe,this is over and above my expectations of a reply! You are very gracious with your time. Thank you.
    29 Jul 2014, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are most welcome DeeMmm, thank you.
    29 Jul 2014, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Geary
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Joe,

     

    Assuming the best fit results are optimal, what do think is the likelihood of an acquisition or partnership in the next six months?
    30 Jul 2014, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't know Steve, I think that is all in the big firms hands, I don't think Tonix will settle for a substandard deal, I do think they will take a "50/50 economics" deal if it is offered. They have enough money where they don't have to do anything, I think they are in a good situation either way.
    30 Jul 2014, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    I am hoping for an earnout/try to buy acquisition of a CSO. I am absolutely not confident that a partner calling on primary care providers with an armentum of drugs will adequately rep this drug and properly overcome the vs. Flexeril argument and the other sales objections.
    30 Jul 2014, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Respectfully disagree Jonanne. From my perspective I do not have time to meet with all my reps. I see the ones I need. By having a Pfizer or Lilly partner up you will gain greater access to a greater size pie. I don't see this drug as a stand alone treatment as many of Celgene's were. This will be Rx'd primarily as an add on to help with the sleep component and take the edge off for some patients. See some of my earlier posts. To get the drug moving involves detailing,society and dinner meetings and webinars. I don't think a tiny company like TNXP could create a significant enough sales force to overcome the issues. Need strong penetration into the GP's practices and you will see a rapid acceptance of this drug. JMHO
    30 Jul 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • cking6178
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    I expect we'll see a runup to BESTFIT results that puts the PPS between $16 & $17....if results are as expected, a bump to mid $20's and close the year somewhere near $30....if results are not as good as all other phases of the trials, then it's headed back under $10 and likely under $5...I see this last scenario as highly unlikely, but in the spirit of the topic, figured I'd throw out my 2 cents....

     

    Joe, thanks for all your DD! I have learned a lot about the biotech industry by reading your articles and the comments from fellow followers.
    30 Jul 2014, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are most welcome cking6178, thank you.
    30 Jul 2014, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    PS

     

    I'll gladly sacrifice the short term additional runup from a partnership for the long term appreciation from adequately represented drugs viz CELG.
    30 Jul 2014, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    On the contrary, I would like to have a partner so that we can have a significant short-term gain as long as theoretically we will have a significant peak revenue. Then you can sell some to get back your principle and use the rest shares for long-term gains. There will be less risk this way. If there is no partnership, the company needs to take a long time to approve its theoretical peak revenue, which may or may not be realized. It is much riskier, and Time has value!
    30 Jul 2014, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • goneskuba
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    profit698, I concur....as you would be diluted further as initial investors with going the $CELG contingency.

     

    Also, what makes everyone think that by years end, price will suddenly shoot up w/o major / minor reports? If BESTFIT scores, then the runup will happen then, not 3-4 months down the road once news has dried up?!!

     

    I think there might be a downtrend if S-3 is exercised, as well as, perpetual selling by board members / institutions / and the ppl who wrote above about getting back principle / day traders / etc.
    5 Aug 2014, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    profit698, I agree with your risk assessment in the short term, but not in the long. I intend to hold at least the substantive majority of this for 5 years. Like you I intend to recover some principle, maybe 50%, but if you want to maximize the value of the long term gains over the longer term, trusting a large pharma is not the way to go. And that's who the likely partners are. You aren't going to find a Celgene or Gilead or the like to take on this kind of drug. So your scenario encompasses a much bigger risk that the "theoretical" peak revenue is not realized because of a poor sales and marketing effort. If by long term you mean a year, I agree with you, but I'm thinking more like 5.
    30 Jul 2014, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Jonanne: Celgene increased from $20+ to $89+ within five years, giving you a compounded annual return approximately 35%. Assuming there is a partnership right after the BESTFIT, you will definitely get a multi-bagger within one year. The markets are always full of opportunities. You can move on and find a next TNXP. Also, there are much uncertainties for 5 year than 1 year, which means more risks.
    30 Jul 2014, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Under your scenario Profit I can't see selling. I think PTSD will be even bigger, and in that case just getting the VA on board will drive HUGE sales. I have seen overflow patients from the VA and there is a definite need. Board has to know this, so won't see a sale till after they can reasonably estimate PTSD market, and see if they have a winner with TNX-201. I would love to find another TNXP but not so easy to find extremely low risk/extremely high potential opportunities. I would be reluctant to part if results are where I hope them to be.
    30 Jul 2014, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    eyedoc: I actually agree with your point. I am not suggesting selling all your shares after a partnership. I prefer to have a partnership, which will be a big boost for the share price. This doesn't conflict with PTSD. The better pipeline, the better partnership in favor of shareholders. I believe TNXP will have a significant Q4 even after the BESTFIT results. A great BESTFIT result will indicate less risk and bigger potential compared to TNXP's current fundamentals. Also there will be new analysts initiating their coverage and existing analysts raising their target prices significantly.
    30 Jul 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    eyedoc: how do you think the possibility that their PTSD trial will have a positive result?
    30 Jul 2014, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    The wording has me confused whether I think the PTSD trial will be successful or what I think the impact of positive results will be. I'll answer both. Super confident about FM passing, market I feel there is less than PTSD. PTSD cases are even more complicated then FM cases. Even though they exist elsewhere, my experience comes from the veterans I've examined. The VA tends to put them on a long list of meds. Though not as physically run down as my FM patients, they seem to have more significant mental issues. The fact that TNX 102 -SL is just a chemical variant of a tricyclic antidepressant, I expect it will fit well here. Many of these guys hardly sleep at all, if it can create any relieve there the VA doctors will script it in huge numbers. These patients are harder to read and get a handle on in general, so trial responses might not be as strong. Still figure to surpass placebo significantly. Market here is huge. I am just talking about the vets. PTSD is everywhere. My guess is this performs well in trials if they are performed in good treatment centers and once approved will see bigger sales then with FM. VA doctors will try anything reasonable to help their patients. TNXP I suspect will partner sometime during the FM trial as long as they can contract out a BIG milestone payment on passing the PTSD trial. Both will have similar royalties, but need to be compensated for the second stream of income. Don't see them being bought out till all positives have played out including TNX 201. Again need to reinforce my personal belief that TNX 102 SL will not be a stand alone treatment for either, but will be a very common added on treatment to deal with the sleeping issues.
    30 Jul 2014, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    eyedoc: Thanks for your thoughts! I agree that the market for PTSD is huge. Just wondering if its trial results are good enough for approval. I also think there is a great chance for good results, although the possibility may not as good as those for FM trials. I also agree that the drugs will be additions to the current treatment, which is a great feature. It will be easier to persuade doctors to add sth than replace sth. Thanks again!
    30 Jul 2014, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    Funny, we seem to be in agreement on ADMP, but this is a much superior management and I think they are capable of stewarding this ship over the long term, whereas with ADMP, I'd love to see a partnership, even if the deal is hostile.
    30 Jul 2014, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    profit698. Query. Would you be unhappy if you bought Celgene even when it went public and held it to today? Even though it did essentially nothing the first 7 years? Over the next five years it went up about 11.5 times and that is the period I think is comparable to the next 5 years for TNXP, since TNX-201 is about ready to go to Phase III.
    30 Jul 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Jonanne: if I am holding Celgene for the recent 5 years, I will not complain. The 35% compounded annual growth rate actually is great. However, timing is very important. I wouldn't like to let my money dead for 7 years. Different people has different strategies. Nothing wrong. Everyone should find a strategy that fits their characteristics most.
    30 Jul 2014, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    profit698. I agree that timing is important. Believe it or not, I'm probably (in general) more of a trader than you. But this could be a $500 stock 5 years from now if all goes really well, so I don't think it pays to be too fine with it.
    30 Jul 2014, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • dramorgan
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    jonanne, that's the most optimistic assessment yet, not that I'm complaining. Do you have a 'goes really well' scenario you'd like to share? Long $TNXP
    30 Jul 2014, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Jonanne: if it could be $500 in 5 years, I will definitely hold it for the 5 years. I can have my early retirement with the single stock. :-) I hope your are right!!! We should ask Joe about the possibility.
    30 Jul 2014, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » $500 X 14.5m fully diluted shares comes to 7.275 billion, just about what Puma currently is, and Puma is projected for $4.1 billion in peak sales.

     

    http://cnb.cx/1lXa5pL

     

    TNX-102 SL could do that by itself.
    30 Jul 2014, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Also Puma is already there, but its drug does not even come up for approval until 2016.
    30 Jul 2014, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Wow!!! I definitely hope that is the case! Am I sitting on a gold mine?! :-) Joe, what do you think is the best strategy? Holding for the next five years? Or sell some to get back your capital and hold the rest for a long-term? Or swing trade?
    30 Jul 2014, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well Puma had its moment on the trial results, I think BESTFIT will be successful and I think Tonix will have its revaluation on results. From there the rest of the pipeline should make its way into the valuation the same way, on trial results, which should come relatively steadily over time. The management and board are just top-notch and they've picked smart things to go after, I think they will be very successful, even on the scale of Celgene. As long as that is the case I say compare them to other stocks at each step and go with the better buy.
    30 Jul 2014, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Thanks! Joe. Appreciate as always! You suggest a dynamic approach. I will evaluate along the way and act accordingly!
    30 Jul 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • petethepanzer
    , contributor
    Comments (1063) | Send Message
     
    i dont think you can compare puma to tonix puma is in a league of its own up there with pharmacyclics
    31 Jul 2014, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • brichnyc
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    I am in the camp of lets get a partner right now which will take most of the risk out of the Bestfit data to be released. Let us go to $25 on a partner and $60 on great data.

     

    Joe, what is your gut feel for a partner pre data or post data??
    Thanks.
    30 Jul 2014, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Brichnyc I think Tonix will wait for 50/50 economics in any deal or partnership, I don't think that can come before data but if the trial goes as they expect I think it could come any time after.
    30 Jul 2014, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    I am strongly hoping they have a partnership after the BESTFIT result. The sooner the better! :-)
    30 Jul 2014, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    Actually by my count its about 13.5 million shares fully diluted as of now. If the company were not to partner it would need working capital and would have to issue shares in a try to buy deal with a CSO, so that could be another 2.5 Million shares, plus a Million shares in additional stock options so about 17 Million shares fully diluted x $500 =$6.8 billion at 4 years sales = $1.7 Billion peak sales. Not a huge reach for 102-SL for FM and PTSD, the myriad of off-label (eventually on label) and 201 for headache. Eyedoc, as to your earlier comment, I think that Pfizer rep has too much in his bag and not enough incentive to sell TNX -102 SL and TNX-201, especially if the drug is an add on. Whereas under the structure of a try to buy CSO deal, the reps get rich if the buy goes through. That's a strong incentive to sell the drugs.
    30 Jul 2014, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Being in the field and dealing with the reps leaves me naturally prejudiced. Rheumatologists and GP's are too busy to set aside too much time. I guess a motivated rep under a CSO deal will set up a breakfast meeting before the practice opens and feed the staff and educate the doctor.
    30 Jul 2014, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • 14195192
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    As a rep speaking a CSO would be awful. These guys are the worst trained and move from contract to contract. No loyalty and usually are laid of reps who can't get work.

     

    In regards to Pfizer they have so many divisions that the rep may only have one or 2 drugs. In fact Pfizer has a MS division that ends it's relationship with Serono end of 2015. These people a lot have lyrica experience already. Possible that it's a good fit.

     

    My point is you need good sAles leadership and training to get most out of reps along with a great bonus plan to get the most out of us. We all chases the bonus bucks.
    30 Jul 2014, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    PS-Eyedoc, the try to buy scenario is a plank in their strategic plan. see the 10-K, so they are definitely considering it.
    30 Jul 2014, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    14195192- Interested to hear your perspective. As to the Pfizer reps having only 1 or 2 drugs, does this include reps calling on primary care practices?
    30 Jul 2014, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • 14195192
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Not sure as to primary care but it really comes down to how many calls per day you can make. For instance a rep may have many specialties with one drug. Psychs, neuros and primary care.

     

    The old pod system doesn't work and big PHARMA has gone back to one or two reps per drug for an office. Therefore less products per reps.

     

    Perhaps a deal with Pfizer could look like this: specialty reps higher level of rep call on neuros and psychs and only have 1 product and lower PC reps would add this to their bag to maximize penetration to PC docs.

     

    My honest opinion is big pharm reps aren't as good as small pharm reps and Pfizer has awful bonus compared to peers. I would like to see tonix hire their own reps and pay for performance. If you don't sell your out if you do you get paid handsomely with stock and bonus. Gets me excited just thinking about it.

     

    This is a science sell. Story about skipping first pass metabolism, why sublingual is important, benefits of sleep and so on. I mentioned earlier I spoke to a neurologist and he didn't see place for this product because flexiril is available. He just didn't understand the benefit and I am positive after 5 minutes I could have him based on science and data using this drug assuming managed care coverage.
    30 Jul 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    You made an interesting point about being a science sell. The product doesn't need a huge amount of pain relief to achieve significance and FDA approval, but there should be a direct correlation between how well it does and how fast it gains acceptance. If we can approach 40% pain relief, then they have a period of time of hitting society meetings, submitting journal articles which will create the needed environment where doctors will have some level of awareness. I still think GP's will Rx this more than specialists, and as they start getting good feedback from patients they will gain comfort. Side affects are known and mechanism of action is easily understandable.
    30 Jul 2014, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • 14195192
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Maybe a story sell with a bit of science sprinkled in. I have always prided myself on being a science guy. MD's understand and speak this language and have always appreciated messaging around it.

     

    Agree that GP's will Rx more especially refills. They are the first line and will treat it if it is easy to manage.
    30 Jul 2014, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • petethepanzer
    , contributor
    Comments (1063) | Send Message
     
    TNX 301 sounds impressive not much info tho
    30 Jul 2014, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    14195192

     

    Maybe you should go to work for Tonix! Call them.
    31 Jul 2014, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    PS

     

    If they do partner, I think it will be after 2nd trial. Otherwise, why did they raise all that money in the secondary? Thge longer they wait, the more cards they hold. Seth Lederman talked in that vein.
    31 Jul 2014, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • joedct47
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    I expect to see 15 to 20 closer into results. However, I still expect a lot of volatility until then. Conservatively, if results are "okay" I would expect a share price 30+ and if results are "pretty good" then 40+. I do expect very good results in October so it definitely could go higher. If they partner early, buckle your seat belts.

     

    I think Fibromyalgia will be a winner for Tonix. They specifically picked Fibromyalgia as the first market for a reason, but I think PTSD and tension headache markets will be what really sends them soaring. These folks are not the kind of people that get involved in mediocre products.

     

    I am really betting on the management team here. In Tonix, you have all the medical and business expertise and experience you could want in a company. You do not attract top talent like that unless you can demonstrate a hell of a lot of potential upside to them. These are folks that do not want to be part of a second tier team. Tonix has also brought on a top notch Wall Street accounting firm (EisnerAmper LLP) and a top patent law firm. It looks like they are taking their time but it looks like they are doing everything right. The one area they could improve in is PR but in the long run, that may be a huge benefit to individual investors.
    31 Jul 2014, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    joedct: You said exactly my minds. I am also really betting on the management. And yeah!!! if they partner early, buckle our seat belts for sure. Curious, would you mind sharing your selling strategy?
    31 Jul 2014, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • ManiakTT
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    Hello, I am new to TNXP... But After reading all the comments, you look very optimistic for a Biotech company and see very nice target prices.
    I would like to load the boat but I have somme worries about this optimism.
    31 Jul 2014, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • wiredless
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    Buy a smaller boat and load it up. You can always upgrade later.
    31 Jul 2014, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • I Heart Joe
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    my choice of smaller boats.
    http://bit.ly/1xIqlkd
    1 Aug 2014, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • ManiakTT
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    lol
    2 Aug 2014, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    joedct47- I would characterize the PR as deliberately understated, as is appropriate, but certainly not universally observed, for a development stage biopharma.
    1 Aug 2014, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • jonanne
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    Noticed I had some fuzzy math on my if everything goes right scenario. 17 shs x 500 = 8.5 billion so @4 year's slaes would require peak sales of 2.125 billion. The 4 year's sales is a low ratio for a biopharma, but these drugs, being not high priced per dose are likely to have a somewhat lower gross margin.
    1 Aug 2014, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • eyedoc08225
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    $150M mixed shelf filed. Any thoughts?
    1 Aug 2014, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is the second S-3 in Tonix' history, the last one was on Nov 26, and the funds were then raised on January 24th, two months later:

     

    http://bit.ly/1lkKjMi

     

    The implication is that they expect good news, and may be in a position to raise more money than their whole current market cap. Thoughts?
    1 Aug 2014, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Robert K. Stuart
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
     
    Does this event, or another offering, cause you to alter your PT Joe? Thanks in advance.
    1 Aug 2014, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't think it's actually an event that will effect anything before results, now the potential partners have been sent a message about their willingness to go it alone, after data the partners know they are prepared to fund themselves the way Celgene did.
    1 Aug 2014, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This has been the plan all along..
    1 Aug 2014, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • jdmarr99
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Joe, I believe this is a positive sign that the results will be a homerun. But even at pps of 50 this is a 30% dilution. Do you think this is evidence that they are planning not to partner and go it alone or do you think that they will use the funds, if activated, to start other trials sooner, tension headache, alcoholism etc?
    1 Aug 2014, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think it's hardball/brinksmanship, I think they are unwilling to accept terms that they think are unfair, and so they are 100% preparing for independence and making it known, even if their first choice is an equitable partnership.
    1 Aug 2014, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Genfit&Tonix
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    Kind of strange. I think they have to do these things in the oppositie way. We as shareholders first want to know why they want to do this.
    Now it's just guessing..
    1 Aug 2014, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Going all the way back to the Rodman conference last year the CEO said that plan A is to get a big pharma partner after BESTFIT, and if they can't get the deal that they want raise money and fund the final study alone, this is the first use of the phrase "Celgene Contingency" to my knowledge.

     

    It's the Q&A at the end for those that have access, maybe I'll type it up.
    1 Aug 2014, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • wiredless
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    After some thought, this makes me more confident of results and of future products. Because it's not a desperation move, this can compress product development timelines, allow simultaneous trials, create stand-alone strength and invite institutional buy-in at early reasonable valuation, creating more demand. I think this is a shrewd move to establish strength rather than a move to hedge bets on whether BigPharma will want "in". Why? Because the market for the products is so large. Think 'Blue Ocean' strategies.
    1 Aug 2014, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1306) | Send Message
     
    I disagree somewhat.

     

    Dilution of this large a percentage is far too great. it might also hint that there were troubles in the study and more capital is needed which is easier to raise prior to bad news rather than after.
    1 Aug 2014, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • blackwallst
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    That's only if the raise before but we don't know that.
    1 Aug 2014, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • wiredless
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    Point well taken, Stephen. I hadn't considered it that way.
    1 Aug 2014, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They are blinded, they contracted an organization to run the study and won't get the results for 6-8 weeks. Then they will release the data relatively quickly - it is material info and if it leaks they could be in violation of Regulation Fair Disclosure. That's a normal protocol they are following.
    1 Aug 2014, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The only other S-3 was 2 months before financing, and they've said that after BESTFIT they intend to partner or raise funds.
    1 Aug 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • DeeMmm
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    Uh... My "$500/share" in 2020 as some have opined, is now going to only be $300/share.... Geez, I'll try to live with it. Long ago gave up trying to figure out the strategies and inner workings of companies. All we little guys can do is read and study and hope the smart guys at the top are making good decisions that will benefit their customers, stakeholders and shareholders. A lot of the thoughts above make sense and just knowing Joe S took time on a Friday night to reply will help me to enjoy the weekend! Monday will come and this thing will get rocked like a beach ball at a Dead concert. In the end the drugs are going to benefit thousands, I'm glad I'm along for the ride! Have a good weekend all.
    1 Aug 2014, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DeeMmm TTH is the biggest market of all, and 102 SL in FM and PTSD combined could eclipse $4.1 billion, but that's not what I wanted to say, this is:

     

    Going all the way back to the September 2013 Rodman Conference the CEO said that "plan A" is to get a big pharma partner after BESTFIT, and if they can't get the deal that they want then he said they'll do the "Celgene Contingency"

     

    "What calendar time would you be considering a partnership?" "So we expect to have the data, we're guiding second half of 2014, we expect to have everyone tee'd up to look at the data as soon as we have it, and then figure out who we are going to work with quickly after that. So everything takes longer than you hope, but I would think that by first quarter 2015 we would either have a partner or pursue this go it alone strategy. We refer to the go it alone strategy internally as the Celgene contingency, because Celgene repeatedly got low balled, and just decided they could raise money on their own and do just as good a job."

     

    They are blinded to the data, the study is wrapping up now, took place in 17 locations, and they will get the results in approximately 6-8 weeks.

     

    So they are looking for the best deal while weighing the go it alone strategy.

     

    The S-3 for $150 million is not at all binding, and by itself is not a capital raise, or dilution. It gives them the right to pursue the go it alone strategy.

     

    They had to file it at some time, filing it sooner and having the option open to not take a bad offer makes complete sense.

     

    They get results circa 6-8 weeks, the last S-3 was 2 months before a raise.

     

    Also the CEO owns about 5% of the common stock and has never sold a share. Insiders own more than 20% and have never sold a share.

     

    The previous capital raises were 100% private placement, not selling on the open market, that $50 million previously raised is about 35% of the company or so. That's very large institutional ownership, just recently acquired, and "intimately" in private placements.

     

    So I think there is a strategic reason for the S-3, and it seems likely that are acting in the interest of shareholders.
    2 Aug 2014, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • tpim
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for all the research you do. We really appreciate all your feedback.
    2 Aug 2014, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Dale Korpi
    , contributor
    Comments (210) | Send Message
     
    Joe,

     

    Commend your research as well as the community efforts by all. It is above me to evaluate the collective research on the market potential and efficacy.

     

    I went out to shortanalytics.com to see the sales volume by long positions and by short positions. It ebbs and flows.

     

    I acknowledge there is legitimate short selling that results in actual delivery, however, there is also a dark side.

     

    Is there anything in short interest or persistent fails to deliver that indicates that dark side? (I have not checked at this time myself but in the case of certain classes of stocks, like biotech, especially after Dendreon, due diligence is prudent.)

     

    Dale Korpi
    13 Aug 2014, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you Dale, Tonix' short interest is very low, under 2% at last report:

     

    http://bit.ly/16VS75b

     

    I compared Tonix on the site you referred to Coke and Celgene and I can't see any difference, perhaps it's marker makers borrowing shares at times to make liquidity..
    13 Aug 2014, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Dale Korpi
    , contributor
    Comments (210) | Send Message
     
    Joe;

     

    Much appreciated, I am in Minneapolis and medical device makers abound.

     

    Individuals in the industry often lament that at times critical progress gets thwarted completely or delayed for the wrong reasons.

     

    Best regards,

     

    Dale Korpi
    13 Aug 2014, 11:07 AM Reply Like
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