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Joe Springer
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  • New Tonix Price Target: Depends How High Chart Goes 33 comments
    Aug 11, 2014 9:05 PM | about stocks: TNXP

    Jason Napodano's new article on Tonix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TNXP) says shares are fairly valued at $16. While we happen to think pre-data shares are more dear, we were stopped in our tracks when we saw this:

    (click to enlarge)

    As you can see, the chart only goes to $16.

    Sigh.

    Ah well, three quick notes:

    1) We noted that Tonix filed its S-3 last week, a "Notice of Effectiveness" should follow at some point meaning that it has been accepted.

    2) Effective today Tonix is listed on The NASDAQ Global Market. The more choice pedigree should get some additional institutional eyeballs on the stock. CEO Dr. Seth Lederman:

    we believe that this move will expand Tonix's visibility to potential investors

    Some details from Nasdaq on the listing:

    The NASDAQ Stock Market has three distinctive tiers: The NASDAQ Global Select Market®, The NASDAQ Global Market® and The NASDAQ Capital Market®. Applicants must satisfy certain financial, liquidity and corporate governance requirements to be approved for listing on any of these market tiers

    Looks like a heads up move by management with big/huge BESTFIT data looming.

    3) Dr. Lederman is presenting at two conferences this week:

    Wedbush Life Sciences Management Access Conference
    Tuesday, August 12, 2014 at 9:45 am ET
    New York, NY

    Canaccord Genuity Annual Growth Conference
    Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 11:30 am ET
    Boston, MA

    Wedbush's conference is "for institutional clients of Wedbush Securities and by invitation only" and is not being broadcast.

    Canaccord Genuity's conference will be broadcast live - you can listen here.

    Disclosure: The author is long TNXP.

    Stocks: TNXP
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Comments (33)
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  • sheldond
    , contributor
    Comments (1457) | Send Message
     
    Can we get the bigger charts down here please....the bigger charts dammit. We need the big charts to break through resistance.

     

    My chart goes to at least 50.

     

    Looking forward to the next few months.

     

    d
    11 Aug 2014, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Me too my friend.
    11 Aug 2014, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Another CC coming in Sept.: Rodman & Renshaw Conferences, LLC, today announced that – former United States Secretary of State and retired four star general – Colin L. Powell will present the keynote address for the 2014 Rodman & Renshaw Annual Global Investment Conference, sponsored by H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC, at The Palace Hotel in New York. General Colin L. Powell’s address is scheduled for Tuesday, September 9, 2014 at 8:00am in the Villard Ballroom. The Conference will be held September 9 and 10, 2014 with more than 250 public & private companies from around the world expected to present to an audience of over 2,000 attendees. The two day event will feature tracks devoted to Biotechnology/Healthcare, Metals & Mining, Technology, Cleantech and Growth. The Conference will include corporate presentations and Q&A sessions, investor one-on-one meetings and daily networking opportunities. Institutional investors, venture capitalists, private equity firms, sophisticated private investors and industry executives are welcome to attend this conference.

     

    TNXP will be presenting in this CC.
    11 Aug 2014, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Great find profit698.
    11 Aug 2014, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • det9
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Joe,

     

    Do you agree with Jason's fair value as 16? Your tone seems disappointing.. Everybody has their opinion. Right? I read your articles where you projected a lot higher price albeit positive BEST FIT results but it does not make sense 16 would be best price or "fair" should I say with catalysts on the way..

     

    Appreciate all the information you share and long $TNXP.
    12 Aug 2014, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Before BESTFIT I happen to think it's worth more, I think Jason is a little conservative but that's ok.

     

    It's getting close to the time where pre-data projections no longer matter...
    12 Aug 2014, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Jeb Walport
    , contributor
    Comments (961) | Send Message
     
    Yup, then the post-data projections will start pouring in.
    12 Aug 2014, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, yep.

     

    The CEO is getting himself in front of institutions at least 3 times in the next 4 weeks, we could see some of them initiate coverage after data.
    12 Aug 2014, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, for job security, institutional analysts tend to be very conservative. look at how Citi's analyst significantly increased the price target of PBYI after the trial result release.
    12 Aug 2014, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • The Dude Abides
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Jason's projected sales estimate:

     

    "For the purpose of our model, we assume Tonix (and its partner) can capture 5% share – that’s one out of every twenty patients currently on generic oral cyclobenzaprine for FM switching to TNX-102 SL. At a cost of $10 per pill, with decent tier-2 and tier-3 coverage, we see TNX-102 SL as a $650 million peak drug. We expect that by 2017, both Lyrica and Cymbalta will be generic, and that Tonix commercial partner will have one of the only (if not the only) branded prescription medications for fibromyalgia available."

     

    At 1x projected sales would put share value at $50 fully diluted. He does allude to a partner.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • 14195192
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    What's crazy is that's based on only 1 out of 20 patients switching. Had more conversations with mds who treat and believe generic causes patients to be too groggy next day. Believe usage will be higher.

     

    Plus they believe will use it off label for other disease states to help with sleep such as MS, PD, pain etc.

     

    Thanks Joe for all your tireless efforts.
    12 Aug 2014, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Genfit&Tonix
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Now even Roth capital (who normally gives easily 2-3 times stockprice as a target for stocks with not even 1/5 potential TNXP), gives a $17 target for TNXP..

     

    http://bit.ly/1sOcd7H

     

    Don't you wonder why their such conservative Joe ?
    Maybe they want to buy TNXP for their clients ?
    12 Aug 2014, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » $17 is their before data price:

     

    “We continue to view TNX-102 SL for fibromyalgia as an undervalued asset. Given our positive outlook for the phase 2/3 trial data coming in 4Q14, we reiterate our Buy rating with a risk adjusted price target of $17/share for risk tolerant investors. The emerging earlier pipeline compounds could act as additional catalysts.”

     

    I still think it's conservative, but that is to be expected.
    12 Aug 2014, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • tkswett
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    Joe...with good results on the trial the stock should pop. Assuming no partner/a go it alone strategy they will most likely raise more money to further fund development. What is your strategy at this point....sell....hold.... more?
    12 Aug 2014, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My opinion: I happen to think this is the time to get a position if you don't have one, and then I say hold at least through results. They will be a different company/stock on good results, and I think there is a good chance that results are significantly better than the 2a trial. I happen to think the chances of success are much better than 50%, and I think the return will be very high. So don't risk what you can't lose, but I think right here will look very good in the short, medium, and long term.
    12 Aug 2014, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Joe, I fully agree with your thoughts. At this level, we should definitely buy. I guess what tkswett's concern is the strategy at the time when the the company raise more money after the good result, assuming no partnership and the company goes it alone.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • tkswett
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Joe!

     

    ...also....I think the call today was excellent. So many positives about this story. Let's all hope the study results are strong for patients and investors.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are most welcome tkswett, thank you.

     

    I like that Dr. Lederman is honing in on certain key points he did not emphasize as much prior, some points:

     

    -He repeatedly emphasized that improvement in pain alone is the approval endpoint, just like the 3 approved FM drugs. He made it so clear that it sounded like that is a part of the story that people have been misunderstanding. Dr. Gershell made this clear to me also a while ago and explained why it is important to the story - the idea is that sleep quality is a new area and there is no already-traveled approval pathway or already-established metrics. They are driving home the point that that doesn't matter, they just need improvement in pain.

     

    -He really made their vision clear with their dual focus on not just adding adding better treatments, but focusing on areas where they can replace problematic treatments - opiods, barbiturates, benzo/non-benzodiazepines

     

    -Also really emphasized the markets - how common the three lead conditions are, and how lacking and problematic the treatments are, he really made the case for the markets

     

    -He emphasized how costly both FM and PTSD are to everyone, and also made the point that this is an every night medicine for "week, months, years" in both conditions

     

    -Started the presentation off: "I hope I convince you by the end of this that we have a terrific team, we're well-capitalized, and it's a very exciting time for our company," he touched on the well-capitalized for key near milestones at the end, and mentioned the "strong balance sheet" again in the Q&A, said of last raise "recently cleaned up our shelf"

     

    -It was news to me that they may only need one study after AtEase: "if it's positive we believe this could be a registrational study, the first of two pivotal studies"

     

    -Positive and emphatic "well along" in extension study

     

    -The old version of their headache drug was the 2nd most prescribed headache med in 1988, and that was off-label, no good meds out there for most common headache, all approved have troublesome barbiturate that's banned in Germany

     

    -Their clinical research is the only work of its kind for a drug in PTSD, no one else is bringing one along that is headed to the clinic including all the big names

     

    I really like it.
    12 Aug 2014, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • profit698
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    The presentation is great! Will add more in dips and looking forward to the incoming result!
    13 Aug 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Clayton Rulli
    , contributor
    Comments (3425) | Send Message
     
    Joe... Thank you as always for your coverage on TNXP. I was wondering your opinion when results will be in that could meaningful move the stock? I'm eyeing up the option chain and noticed the Dec expirations have much more interest than March...
    13 Aug 2014, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are most welcome Clayton, thank you. The official date in the filings is that they anticipate Q4, but in the conferences since June they've been saying "early" Q4, and it may even sneak in to September:

     

    On May 12th, Tonix announced that it had completed enrollment in its pivotal 12-week BESTFIT (BEdtime Sublingual TNX-102 SL as Fibromyalgia Intervention Therapy) trial. As of August 4th, BESTFIT should be complete.

     

    We spoke with Tonix CFO Dr. Leland Gershell on August 2nd. Dr. Gershell confirmed that everyone in the company is blinded to the 17 site study, and will remain so until data is delivered by the contract research organization roughly 6-8 weeks from August 4th.

     

    Dr. Gershell noted Tonix' commitment to transparency and prompt disclosure of material information, and confirmed that shortly after data is delivered Tonix will issue a press release of top-line data and hold a conference call.

     

    We noted Tonix' stated view that data should be released "early" in the fourth quarter, and that 8 weeks from August 4 is September 29, the same week as the fourth quarter begins.

     

    Dr. Gershell confirmed that this view is based on the best information.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Clayton Rulli
    , contributor
    Comments (3425) | Send Message
     
    TY JOE! I wish there was some higher strikes available on the chains......
    13 Aug 2014, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are very welcome Clayton, thank you.

     

    I know - the Dec 20s cost at least $3..
    13 Aug 2014, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1328) | Send Message
     
    Joe Springer,

     

    As always and I am sure I speak for many when I say thank you for all your hard work. Work that includes writing articles, answering questions and speaking with the company. To say your input is invaluable would be an understatement.

     

    My question is what do you anticipate the stock price to do over the next 6-8 weeks? And would you say that $10-13 in the stock price will not be seen again and will be viewed in hindsight as great values to enter.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are most welcome Stephen J Melnykevich, thank you.

     

    My guess is as the date gets closer the price will appreciate, but we shall see.
    13 Aug 2014, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Moriarty
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks Joe for your patient and persistent analysis.
    Of course Tonix management are blinded to the BESTFIT outcomes, but Seth Ledermann did put forward strong arguments for expecting better results than the 2a study achieved:
    - sub-lingual is more direct
    - this trial is 12 weeks rather than 8
    - with 100 rather than 18 in each arm.
    The other very interesting part of the presentation was his response to the question at the end - they are in no rush to seek a partner, with every piece of evidence that comes to hand and every study they start, he sees their bargaining position getting ever stronger. To me that speaks volumes for the confidence of Tonix management in their program - he's not allowed to forecast the results of BESTFIT, but the clear inference from his attitude to partnerships is that they are utterly confident of the long-term success of the company.
    Let's not forget that when Mr Market gives us the odd 5% or 10% fluctuation - there's every possibility we are looking at a 20-year home run here.
    13 Aug 2014, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are most welcome Moriarty, thank you.

     

    The 2a study was compelling too - not only did they get a statistically significant improvement in pain, tenderness, and depression versus placebo, but also a statistically significant improvement in restorative sleep versus placebo (measured by CAP A2/A3), and a correlation between the nights of restorative sleep and improvements in symptoms.

     

    They don't have to prove the restorative sleep portion, just improvement in pain, but it is good supporting data.
    13 Aug 2014, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I also think they could get a significant improvement in fatigue (not needed for approval), they did not get it in the 2a but that perhaps is to be expected because of the oral lasting too long..
    13 Aug 2014, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Genfit&Tonix
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Offtopic;
    Joe, do you know Bioenergy Ribose in Fibromyalgia ?
    http://bit.ly/1oAcYmw

     

    Great comments on it
    http://bit.ly/1qc8GgA

     

    Do you know what went wrong here, why TNX 102-SL is better, or is it still going strong ?

     

    Thanks in advance !
    15 Aug 2014, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It looks like a scam to me G&T but either way it's not sleep related..
    15 Aug 2014, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Genfit&Tonix
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    I'm not totally sure about it but i think it creates more energy because of a better sleep..
    Here is a presentation http://bit.ly/1qcjk76
    It's worth looking at but too long to watch 1h28m..
    15 Aug 2014, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • brichnyc
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    He has been warned by the FDA . This is a scam. A simple google search shows this. A little homework please.

     

    On April 18, 2012 the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) sent a warning letter to Teitelbaum advising him to remove certain natural products he markets on his Facebook page because they are unproven treatments for chronic fatigue syndrome
    15 Aug 2014, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Genfit&Tonix
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Thank you to set it straight brichnnyc !!
    15 Aug 2014, 10:30 AM Reply Like
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