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TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL BANKS ARE INVESTING IN MITT ROMNEY!

Jan. 17, 2012 6:07 PM ETCS, UBS, GS, BCS, MS, JPM, BAC, WFC, C
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.
Open Secrets has compiled some very useful Federal Elections Commission statistical data about the candidates running for President. Here is a comparison between the top contributors of the two frontrunners in the Republican race. About 48% of Ron Paul's and 10% of Mitt Romney's campaign funds came from "small" individual contributors pledging less than $200.

Paul has some companies giving him money, but no six figure supporters. The majority of Romney's six figure and up contributors are people who contribute to bank sponsored PACs. The companies listed did not make the contributions themselves. Generally speaking, the numbers represent contributions collectively obtained and donated by the PACs (Political Action Committees) the listed companies sponsor.

There is no question that money helps people get elected. Romney's war chest is almost 3x the size of Paul's, and he is leading in the polls. The real question is whether heavy investment, dominated by a particular industry, ends up paying off in terms of corporate profits? Or, are these contributions going to end up just a mere "public service"?

Do industries that contribute heavily to a winning Presidential candidate do well afterward? It is hard to say. But, governments do control some critical factors that can result in profit or loss in certain heavily regulated industries. Easy money makes the stock market go up, and that can result in trading profits. Low interest rates increases the probability that otherwise "bad" loans won't go bad. Low rates also tend to increase the spread between the cost of Federal Reserve derived loans, and the return on other investments.

Given this, it is important for investors to follow political developments, even if they have no real interest in politics. Romney has a commanding lead in the Republican primary. Assuming the grass roots supporters of Ron Paul don't manage to upset his apple cart, and Romney manages to evict Barack Obama from the Oval Office, investors may want to consider buying shares of the banks who contribute heavily to Romney's campaign.

MITT ROMNEY:
Goldman Sachs(GS) $367,200
Credit Suisse Group(CS) $203,750
Morgan Stanley(MS) $199,800
HIG Capital $186,500
Barclays (BCS) $157,750
Kirkland & Ellis $132,100
Bank of America (BAC) $126,500
PriceWaterhouseCoopers $118,250
EMC Corp (EMC) $117,300
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) $112,250
The Villages $97,500
Vivint Inc $80,750
Marriott International (MAR) $79,837
Sullivan & Cromwell $79,250
Bain Capital $74,500
UBS AG (UBS) $73,750
Wells Fargo (WFC) $61,500
Blackstone Group (BX) $59,800
Citigroup Inc (C) $57,050
Bain & Co $52,500


RON PAUL
US Army $24,503
US Air Force $23,335
US Navy $17,432
Mason Capital Management $14,000
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) $13,398
Boeing Co (BA) $10,620
Google Inc (GOOG) $10,390
Overland Sheepskin $10,350
IBM Corp (IBM) $8,294
US Government $7,756
DUNN Capital Management $7,500
Corriente Advisors $7,500
Greenstreet Co $7,500
Northrop Grumman (NOC) $7,272
Lockheed Martin(LMT) $7,208
Intel Corp (INTC) $6,855
US Dept of Defense $6,524
United Technologies (UTX) $6,316
Federal Express (FDX) $6,255
Entergy Corp (ETR) $5,950



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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