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C Michael Croston
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  • Apple's Perfect Storm May Just Be Over 0 comments
    Nov 18, 2012 11:45 PM | about stocks: AAPL

    The Apple Perfect Storm... iPhone 5 announced 09/12/2012. Stock rises to $705. 09/21 Supply constraints, "Purple Haze" and "map issues" raises red flags and red herrings. Lowered availability, lowered expectations - 09/24 $665. 09/26-10/11 Media short-sell cronies beat the stock down. Tim Cook apologizes over "maps issues" iPhone 5 is a flop because there are none around to be had. Everyone now supposedly hates Apple - $628. 10/18 Google announces earnings mid-day by accident. Trading halted most of the day for GOOG. Missed estimates sends Google reeling. Apple also gets sucked down further going into earnings. 10/19 iPad Mini announced - $609. 10/25 Earnings miss, though still a great quarter. Lowers guidance due to supply constraints. iPad shown to be responsible for 91% of tablet data used. Critics crush - $609. 10/29 Forstall and Browett leave - $595. 10/30-11/06 A constant flow of negativity and noise from media about lack of innovation, loss of market share, smaller gross margins, Tim Cook is not Steve Jobs, iPad Mini can't compete with tablets costing $30 less, Samsung, etc. drives the stock lower - $582. Media has made little of $2.65 a share dividend. 11/06 - $537. Panic ensues. Has Apple become Sony? "Apple falls on weak iPhone sales attributed to "maps issues" "Purple Haze" and everybody now wanting a Samsung". Never a mention about selling off before the dividend ex-date of 11/07. Election, Fiscal Cliff concerns, Capital Gains sell-off 11/8-11/15 . 11/15 Obama meeting with Reps/Dems, open tap on Apple shares falling to $505. Heads of state come out kissing, Apple bounces back to $527 in after hours trading. Coincidentally, Morgan Stanley's chief Apple analyst Katy Huberty, had some very positive notes to investors saying essentially that iPhone and iPad sales are looking to be a little higher than street estimates. Maybe the storm is over...

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    Themes: Tech Stocks: AAPL
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