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Itinerant
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Engineer by trade, male, mid-forties. My main investing interest is in the resource sector, with a current focus on precious metals, base metals and energy stocks. Typically, I look for compelling fundamentals and then apply technical amalysis to find entry and exit points. On occassions I... More
  • Itinerant's Call Monitor 4 comments
    Mar 31, 2014 10:38 AM

    [March 31 2014, links added April 11&15 2014]

    We don't call specific stocks and price targets very often; but since it has been requested on a couple of occasions, and since we'd like to keep some kind of record ourselves, here is a place where we keep track of the few calls that we have made and their subsequent performance.

    This record should be viewed as work in progress and will be updated and expanded at times. Feel free to remind us of calls that we have made, but forgot to mention in this list.

    Pending Calls

    Sierra Metals: traded for $1.85 at the time of writing (Dec 27, 2013); is trading for $1.50 right now. Call was for Sierra Metals to double by year's end.

    Sentiment: still confident, with a pinch of concern. (link)

    Capstone Mining: traded for $2.77 at the time of writing (Jan 8, 2014); is trading for $2.60 right now. Call was for $4 by summer.

    Sentiment: still confident. One catalyst mentioned in the article has just materialized, see update here.

    Mincor: traded for $0.50 at the time of writing (Jan 29, 2014); is trading for $0.60; called "significant upside in 2014".

    Sentiment: confident; has gone up by 20% in two months and has also paid 3% in dividends as called. (link)

    Blackpearl: traded for $2.20 at the time of writing (Feb 20, 2014); is trading for $2.40. No specific call made, but implicitly mentioned $3 by summer.

    Sentiment: confident. (link)

    Nevada Copper: traded for $1.40 at the time of writing (Mar 25, 2014); price target of $5 within a year;

    Sentiment: confident. (link)

    Trevali Mining: traded for $1 at the time of writing (May 6, 2014); call was for $1.20 short-term and for $2 by the end of 2015.

    sentiment: confident

    McEwen Mining: traded for $2.57 at the time of writing (Jan 31, 2014); is trading for $2.50; call was for a 25% correction.

    Sentiment: confident.

    Avino Silver: traded for $2 at the time of writing (Feb 10, 2014); is trading for $1.60; price target of $3 within a year.

    Sentiment: confident, will need silver price to comply.

    Paladin Energy: traded for $0.50 at the time of writing (Jan 22, 2014); is trading for $0.43; price target for $0.81 within a year.

    Sentiment: becoming skeptical, high leverage to uranium price.

    Ivanhoe Energy: traded for $0.56 at the time of writing (Jan 12, 2012); is trading for $0.50; call was to short.

    Sentiment: confident.

    Calls That have Worked Out

    DUST: trade suggested on November 14, 2013; exit suggested on December 16, 2013 for a 40% profit.

    (click to enlarge)

    DUST data by YCharts

    Stillwater Mining: traded for $11.40 at the time of writing (Dec 13, 2013); is trading for $15; call was for 30% upside which has been well and truly reached.

    (click to enlarge)

    SWC data by YCharts

    Allied Nevada: traded for $3.90 at the time of writing (November 15, 2013); call was for $5 within a couple of quarters; was trading for $6 in March 2014.

    (click to enlarge)

    ANV data by YCharts

    Sibanye Gold: traded for $3.84 at the time of writing (August 28, 2014); call was for a "screaming BUY"; was trading at $9.70 by mid-March 2014.

    (click to enlarge)

    SBGL data by YCharts

    Calls That Have Not Worked Out

    Revett Minerals: traded for $1.20 at the time of writing (September 6, 2013); price target was $2.50; price dropped and the trade was exited at a loss (October 16, 2013).

    (click to enlarge)

    RVM data by YCharts

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Comments (4)
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  • DanShirey
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
     
    Itinerant,

     

    I like this "Blog-Monitor". Good idea. Thanks, for your efforts.
    1 Apr, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Itinerant
    , contributor
    Comments (1023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » a few links added April 11 2014. Especially happy with Mincor performance of late.
    11 Apr, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • DanShirey
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
     
    A couple interesting "reads":

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1im...

     

    Peter Schiff: Reckless Fed may push gold to $5,000
    Euro Pacific Capital CEO talks about Fed actions that would prompt a price surge

     

    4/25/14

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1im...

     

    China physical gold demand to rise 25% by 2017: World Gold Council

     

    April 15, 2014

     

    Best
    26 Apr, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • DanShirey
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
     
    F. Y. I.:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Joe Conway May 12, 2014:

     

    “So to wrap up bottom line, we see Primero as a company as a great investment opportunity, it is a transformational year for us as we go from a single asset company to a mid-tier producer. We’ve now got a portfolio and we will continue to work in safe jurisdictions as we look forward for other opportunities in the future. And again, we have a strong cash flow on balance sheet and we have a significant, obviously a significant capital into our projects, roughly $115 million as I said and also roughly 100 of debt that we will be repaying likely over the next 12 months. But with our cash flow that we have in hand and our balance sheet we feel very comfortable where we’re. And that is also the fact, by the fact our below cost, our cost structures is below at industry average at this point.

     

    And obviously what we see here during the first quarter was we had some very high short term costs at Black Fox but that’s going to change over the next couple of quarters as we get it back to, get it turn around and get it back to where we think it should be.”

     

    LONG PPP
    Dan
    24 May, 09:09 AM Reply Like
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