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  • Will The 6-7 Year Alternating Cycle Pattern Return In 2013? 0 comments
    May 9, 2013 1:59 AM | about stocks: DIA, SPY, QQQ

    This 6-7 year alternating cycle pattern or YAC Pattern over the last 113 year period has captured most of the largest percentage declines as well as largest percentage rallies. Some All-Time Highs in various indices & on other occasions caught the highs or lows for that decade. It's not perfect at picking a precise day, week or even the month. Sometimes it skips a beat However just to be aware that the potential of it striking should leave everyone on guard! When the cycle exerts it's force on the market it will move a large percentage many times in a short amount of time. Get Ready!
    I needed to use Dow 30 for longer term data reasons.
    *is used when the high or low for the decade has been made & also all- time high or low is made during the cycle.
    2013 - ?
    2007*-Top:Dow lost over 54% in roughly 516 days. Subprime Mortgage Crisis. The High for the 2000's decade for the Dow 30.
    2000*-Top:Dow lost over 38% in 1,000 days & The Nasdaq Composite lost 78% of its value in roughly that same period. The all-time High for the Nasdaq. Dot-com
    1994 -Cycle skipped a beat. Dow trading in a tight trading range during 1994. From 1994's low to 1995's high Dow gained 45%.
    -Top:Dow lost over 22% in 1 trading day October 19th Black Monday & lost over 41% in just 56 days.
    1981*-Top:Dow lost over 24% in 469 days. All-Time High Yield on 30 yr. Bond, Low Price for 30 year bond Price for all data I have available to me.
    1974*-Bottom:Dow made a bottom in Early December & rallied over 53% in 218 days. The Low for the 1970's.
    1968 -Top:Dow lost over 36% in 540 days.
    1961 -Top:Dow lost over 27% in est. 190 days.
    1955 -Cycle skipped a beat. Dow did gain over 24% in 192 days during the low in March to high in September 1955.
    1948 -Cycle skipped a beat. Dow lost over 16% in est. 390 days. Choppy trading.
    1942*-Bottom:Dow made a bottom in late April & rallied over 52% in 442 days. Low for the 1940's decade. World War 2.
    1935 -Bottom:Dow made a bottom in mid March & rallied over 54% in 245 days & over 67% in 387 days. New Deal, WPA program.
    1929*-Top:Dow lost over 89% from the beginning of September 1929 to July 1932, in roughly 1042 days. High for the 1920's decade. The Great Depression.
    1922*-Bottom:Dow made a bottom in late August of 1921 & rallied over 61% in 418 days. Cycle bottom was early by 130 days. The Low for the 1920's, "Roaring 20's".
    1916 -Top:Dow lost over 40% in est. 394 days. World War 1.
    1909 -Top:Dow lost over 26% in 249 days.
    1903*-Dow made a bottom in mid November & rallied over 74% in est. 391 days. The Low for the 1900's decade.

    Disclosure: I am short OEF, QQQ.

    Additional disclosure: Please view charts related to this story at midvilleresearch.com/

    Stocks: DIA, SPY, QQQ
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