Thursday: Investing Wisely -- Market Update & Commentary - - September 20, 2012 ( Short Version )
This is my - every-other-Thursday posting.
This Past Week
Despite the ill-conceived QE -3 the General Market is going DOWN. Just one week after the "stimulus" it looks terrible. Like always before I can call the Peak or Bearish Inflection Point it will continue to take time and patience.
A major Turn-Down / Bearish Cycle is over due and will be costly to all investors who are not in cash or using VERY / VERY selective short positions. Growth mutual funds will soon be hurt - BAD.
I try to spend a great deal of time in my articles talking about "SELECTION." This is a NEW stock market and everything no longer moves in SYNC. If you would like to visit by Email regarding this subject, please let me share some facts that are absent from all I read.My Current General Market Opinion
In my articles, now exclusively in SafeHaven.com., I clearly have been bearish since early April. Calling this Bearish Cycle Inflection Point on the button was important and profitable to my Clients. You will note from my weekly articles that in June I provided a series of 13 articles on my Bullish Forecast. That forecast has produced a 17% average profit on all of these 13 Companies.
So, Bears are now back in control of the marketplace for the foreseeable future. I know, it does not look like it, but you have to dig deeper than the crap that the Financial Media is publishing and most Blog Authors are saying / advising.
As of this posting it does not look that way to many investors but I insist that we are in a Bearish Cycle. Leading into the November elections will confirm my position.
So, this now past rally, June to Now, was just the thing that was needed to have the major Indices (Dow 30, S&P's, Nasdaq and others) to finally capitulate.
There may be yet another bounce / mini-rally but it will fail.
Of the many proprietary indicators that have been so accurate over the years for me, not one is showing any indication that a meaningful bullish cycle is coming. That means the marketplace will continue to erode moving from one sector / industry group venue to another. This ROTATION (see URL below) will, or should continue until all have been sufficiently hurt. Some will begin to rebuild earlier than others. Those are already in formation and on my Bullish List for the next Bullish Cycle. I have a close eye on that event when it finally begins to take place. However, that guidance is reserved for my Clients.
My Rotation Model - a posted article here in SA:
On the economic front, there is mounting evidence that the U.S. will join Great Britain in being in a full recession. I suggest that the U.S. - - is - - currently in a recession and it will be some time before it is announced by Washington. Remember there is an election coming. Washington and the media, as usual will purposefully be slow to acknowledge this fact.
As for the general market, my fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media.
All the stimulus that Washington can muster will likely, and as usual be politically driven in the coming few months. The pass on QE3 in August was purely political timing ploy. I have said that Obama will use it or something else just prior to November elections. I guess that forecast was accurate also! If that is not clear manipulation, what is? With the elections coming, I suggest that the marketplace will be suffering and in need of another false promise / hope by the President.
At this time, I am bearish on the general market and the economy for the foreseeable future.
If you are in mutual funds or holding long securities positions, you are going to have a very hurtful summer and perhaps beyond.
Understand from the above General Market opinion that my Guidance for most all securities is also bearish. In my articles I include the following statement: "My analytic focus is investing wisely, e.g. taking advantage of the bull / bear cycles as they occur within the overall marketplace. Integrating conservative fundamental analytics within these technical cycles means maintaining a process of the thorough and on-going analytics of many companies, sectors and industry groups."
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Symbols covered in my SA article archive and currently posted in SafeHaven.com:AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, T, VZ, XOM
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Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",
Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.