Seeking Alpha

Steven Bauer's  Instablog

Steven Bauer
Send Message
My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Thursday: Investing Wisely – General Market Update & Commentary - - September 27, 2012 ( Short Version )  0 comments
    Sep 27, 2012 10:05 AM | about stocks: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, T, XOM

    This is my - every-other - Thursday Update:

    This Past Few Days in the Marketplace

    Despite the ill-conceived QE -3 the General Market is going DOWN. Just one week-plus after the "stimulas" it (the Marketplace) looks terrible. Soon a Bearish Inflection Point will be ripe for Selective Bearish positions.

    A major Turn-Down / Bearish Cycle is over due and will be costly to all Investors who are not in cash or using VERY / VERY Selective short positions. Growth mutual funds will soon be hurt - BAD in the coming weeks.

    I try to spend a great deal of time in my articles talking about "SELECTION." This is a NEW stock market and everything no longer moves in SYNC. If you would like to visit by Email regarding this subject, please let me share some facts that are absent from all I read.

    My Current General Market Opinion

    In my articles, now exclusively in SafeHaven.com., I clearly have been bearish since early April. Calling this Bearish Cycle Inflection Point on the button was important and profitable to my Clients. You will note from my weekly articles that in June I provided a series of 13 articles on my Bullish Forecast. Those combined Forecasts has produced an 18% average profit on all 13 of these 13 Companies.

    AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, T, XOM

    - - -

    So, Bears are now back in control of the Marketplace for the foreseeable future. I know, it does not look like it, but you have to dig deeper than the crap that the Financial Media is publishing and most Blog Authors are saying / advising.

    As of this posting it does not look that way to many Investors but I insist that we are in a Bearish Cycle. Leading into the November elections will confirm my position.

    So, this now past rally, June to Now, was just the thing that was needed to have the major Indices (Dow 30, S&P's, Nasdaq and others) to finally capitulate.

    There may be yet another bounce / mini-rally but it will fail.

    Of the many proprietary indicators that have been so accurate over the years for me, not one is showing any indication that a meaningful bullish cycle is coming. That means the marketplace will continue to erode moving from one sector / industry group venue to another. This ROTATION (see URL below) will, or should continue until all have been sufficiently hurt. Some will begin to rebuild earlier than others. Those are already in formation and on my Bullish List for the next Bullish Cycle. I have a close eye on that event when it finally begins to take place. However, that guidance is reserved for my Clients.

    My Rotation Model - a posted article here in SA:

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/622651-my-rotation-model-an-explanation-of-this-part-of-my-methodology

    On the Economy, there is mounting evidence that the U.S. will join Great Britain in being in a full recession. I suggest that the U.S. - - is - - currently in a recession and it will be some time before it is announced by Washington. Remember there is an election coming. Washington and the media, as usual will purposefully be slow to acknowledge this fact.

    As for the General Market, my fundamentals are over-valued. My technicals are over-bought. My consensus opinions are much too bullish. The economy is in much more peril than is being reported by the media.

    All the stimulus that Washington can muster will likely, and as usual be politically driven in the coming few months. The pass on QE3 in August was purely political timing ploy. I have said that Obama will use it or something else just prior to November elections. I guess that forecast was accurate also! If that is not clear manipulation, what is? With the elections coming, I suggest that the marketplace will STILL BE suffering and in need of another false promise / hope by the President.

    At this time, I am bearish on the General Market and the Economy for the foreseeable future. I suggest the General Market will have a rally or two within my "foreseeable" future time frame. I'll keep you posted.

    If you are in mutual funds or holding long securities positions, you are going to have a very hurtful Fall (that's the next season that is coming soon) and perhaps beyond.

    Understand from the above General Market opinion that my Guidance for most all securities is also bearish. In my articles I include the following statement: "My analytic focus is investing wisely, e.g. taking advantage of the bull / bear cycles as they occur within the overall marketplace. Integrating conservative fundamental analytics within these technical cycles means maintaining a process of the thorough and on-going analytics of many companies, sectors and industry groups."

    - - -

    Communications

    I do not communicate with readers or followers using SA's Comments or Message Center. Obviously then, I do not read or respond to any "Comments" made by the readers of my articles. In the past, doing so has presented, for me serious problems that I now simple feel I must try to avoid.

    I would be pleased if you would like to have an Email dialog with me, I will provide a prompt reply / response via Email.

    My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Thanks for permitting me to share my "stuff."

    I would of course appreciate your - Telling a Friend or Two about my Work / Analytics.

    - - -

    If you would like further information about me, my objectives for writing SA articles, and my professional services and fees.

    ( click here for my bio )

    ( click here for my objectives and professional services and fees )

    If you would like to ask questions or share thoughts - Just Send Me An Email. No Cost, No Obligation / No Fool-in !

    Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

    Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

    Stocks: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, T, XOM
Back To Steven Bauer's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.