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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Instablog – Updates of Apple, Inc. / 5 - Dow 30 Industrial: June 18th.  0 comments
    Jun 18, 2011 10:44 AM | about stocks: AAPL, HPQ, AXP, MDLZ, TRV, CVX

     

    Date:  June 18, 2011

     

    Introduction

     

    Companies and Indexes for this week:  AAPL, HPQ, AXP, KFT, TRV, CVX.

     

    This week continues my rotation through the Dow 30 Industrials offered exclusively in my / this Instablog.  I suggest that it provides you with a brief history of the accuracy of my “Comments” and ability to correctly Forecast, not only the General Market / Sectors and Industry Groups / Commodities – and specific Securities.  For each of these 30 Dow Jones Industrial component securities you will quickly see that my Methodology and Analytics is one of the very best.  If you will continue to review my work / analytics you will find that it is objective, candid, pragmatic, accurate and consistently profitable. 

     

    In my effort to introduce my life’s Work / Analytics to serious investors, who may be looking for or perhaps would consider, ( as an alternative to mutual funds and / or stock brokers )  a 50+ year profitable - professional financial analyst / asset manager - I am providing:

     

    *   This weekly flow of information and data - - with my analytics, warnings and alerts.  I make formal recommendations only to Clients and Prospective Clients.

     

    *   A flow to you of my private Emails (if you are on my mail list) of on going identification of – Inflection Points and specific Securities Recommendations can be provided. 

     

    Please let me know – if you are interested - by sending me an Email with just a bit of information about yourself and your investment objectives. 

    This offer is definitely / exclusively being made available - to Serious Investors. 

     

    There is no obligation and it is totally free – however, it is important to me that you understand my requirement / rules for followers, and prospective clients is that:   you “communicate” with me, one on one via Email! 

     

    As you likely already know I have totally stopped my flow of SeekingAlpha articles with a focus on company fundamental valuations.  I have written over 50 articles covering many companies – so far – but it requires too much time (as well as several other very negative reasons / conflicts between myself and SeekingAlpha.com - senior officers and personnel) to do a proper job.  I will not stand for what I believe to be – grossly inappropriate editing and criticism of my grammar and writing style. 

     

    It is my mission to tell you the truth about Investing Wisely and debunk the many lies that you (and all Investors)  are being told by Wall Street the media, mutual funds and stockbrokers.  I take free license (without editors!) to say what I have experienced over the past 50+ years.  You may want to review some of these efforts in my SeekingAlpha.com archive? 

     

    My articles and these weekly missives are backed by my “Three Pillars” of Investing Wisely.  They are: My Rotation Model, My SHB Cycle and My Inflection methodology.  In my analytics, I also use a highly disciplined / weighted fundamental (40%), technical (35%) and consensus (25%) analysis.   (please see below for URLs that will help explain this “stuff”)  If you are looking for a consistently profitable asset manager – I have not missed a profitable year since the mid 1960s. 

     

    You will note below several URLs that provide considerable insight into my work / analytics / and philosophy of Investing Wisely.

     

     


     

    In the below tables there is an update of this week’s grouping of 5  ‘valuated’  eg. - Dow 30 Industrial companies plus Apple, Inc. with brief Comments and Current Warnings and (not formal) Recommendations. 

    General Market – Current Perspective

    My Personal / Private Blog covers this title at least twice per week.

    Want to visit my personal / private Blog?  It is updated on Sunday and typically on Wednesday’s.  I do file special alerts and commentaries as they occur.  You may particularly be interested in my Forecast of  Sectors and Commodities in a special Table in my Wednesday – Personal / Private.

    http://twitter.com/#!/InvestRotation/

    If you will share a bit about yourself and your investment objectives, I will add you to my Mail / Alert List.  Just send me an Email – remember I am totally focused on “Serious Investors.”

    My Email Address:   senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com


    Companies - Current Perspective

    A Ranking, using each of my three (weighted disciplines) -- Comments for each Company -- and current Numeric Ranking of the position of each Company within the Dow 30 Industrials should give you plenty hard analytics work each and every week, but I can assure you that if you will do this ‘homework’ you will soon you will be doing it like a professional.

    Apple, Inc.

    Apple, Inc:  for those of you who follow my work/analytics closely – you know that I focus much of my effort on Comparative Analytics.  AAPL is nothing more than a Bellwether Company has served that purpose very well over many years, bull and bear – it is my - Numero Uno. 

    Grouping Two: (see below for a list of the six groupings of five - Dow 30 Industrial Companies.)

     

    Symbol and Current Numeric Ranking within the Dow 30 Industrials

    Category

    Fundamental
    (weighting 40%)

    Technical
    (weighting 35%)

    Consensus
    (weighting 25%)

     

    (NYSE:HPQ) Ranked: # 28

    Bellwether

    Poor

    Poor

    Good

    Comments: Currently, at $35. down from $49 at the first of the year.  If you review my comments about HPQ you will find I called the top on the button.  Fundamentally, it is currently not very compelling – remember I use – Comparative Analytics.  Technically, it offers little hope for any kind of a longer-term recovery.  I expect a pop of maybe 10% and then more downside.  Consensus wise, it is “Good.”  Maybe you should start believing that these Low Ranked securities are not the one’s to hold long or certainly the one’s to buy.

     

    (NYSE:AXP) Ranked: # 14

    Bellwether

    Poor

    Very Poor

    Good

    Comments: Currently, at $48. also offers little hope for recovery.  Remember in this ‘Rotation’ – “stuff” that I propound,  AXP is in the mid range of the Dow 30 components and therefore it is in “No Where’s Vil” – that is just a term that I coined many years ago.  I will never understand the average and I mean average investor holding this kind of a company at times like this.

     

    (KFT) Ranked: # 13

    Bellwether

    Good

    Very Good

    Good

    Comments:   Currently, at $34.  KFT just might make a new high in the coming weeks.  Too bad it is not a bigger mover!.

     

    (NYSE:TRV) Ranked: # 18

    Bellwether

    Good

    Good

    Good

    Comments: Currently, at $58. has broken down just like I warned that it would.  However, if there is a rally coming soon, I would hold and very likely sell at or near the top of that bounce.  Do you read my Best of the Best on Tuesday’s and my Worst of the Worst on Thursday’s?  These Companies that are in the middle are not EVER considered to be help in my Clients Portfolios.

     

    (NYSE:CVX) Ranked: # 3

    Bellwether

    Very Good

    Very Good

    Very Good

    Comments:  Currently, at $99.  It is my opinion that you will have a weak chance to get back to the highs of $109.  But it will try.  Regardless I suggest you consider selling at or even a bit below the $110 price. Yes, it is currently in the top 10% and also had done an excellent job, but its time for glory is almost over.

    You can find all Dow 30 Industrial Companies and a number of other supporting Bellwether and High Profile charts amongst the 100 or so in:

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4095527

    Six Groupings of the Dow 30 Industrials:  You might want to go back and see what I said six weeks ago on any of these Groupings.

    Grouping One: BAC, CSCO, GE, BA, XOM
    Grouping Two: HPQ, AXP, KFT, TRV, CVX
    Next Week (if possible):  Grouping Three: CAT, HD, KO, DIS, DD
    Grouping Four: T, IBM, JNJ, AA, JPM                                                                  Grouping Five: VZ, MRK, PG, MCD, MSFT
    Grouping Six: PFE, , MMM, UTX, WMT, INTC


    Notes for the above Tables:

    Note One:  While I cover my Three Disciplines, Fundamental, Technical and Consensus analysis, my focus for these updates is primarily technical.  It’s the WHEN that is so very critical in this market, and I have given you the WHAT in my SeekingAlpha.com articles and above.   I also pride my work / analytics because I can share with investors the WHY or Rationale as to each security I recommend.  Selectivity is also an essential for investing wisely, but rather easy if you will use the “Three Pillars” of my Methodology.  I continuously monitor the fundamentals and consensus status of these and many more companies, sectors and industry groups.  As a mini example, please see my Public List in StockCharts of about 100 companies listed alphabetically by my two categories of securities - Bellwether and High Profile.  Use this URL:  Click here and scroll through them.

    Note Two:  When these three disciplines are Excellent to Very Good they become Candidates for Buying and when they are Poor to Very Poor they become Candidates for Short Sale.  There is always rather large number of companies in both categories, but I wait for clear, bullish or bearish Inflection Points to be sure.  You might want to think of these comments in terms of a slot machine.  When my ‘Three Disciplines’ have 3 bars of Excellent / Very Good – it’s a bullish Jack Pot!  Strangely enough to some investors, when I have 3 lemons of Poor to Very Poor – it’s a bearish Jack Pot!

    Note Three:  Within this missive I stop short of providing specific and formal recommendations.  If you are interested in a more specific dialog please let me know.  Just so you know, I will work with you for a time if you currently are seeking or believe you may have in the future - interest in my professions asset management / consulting / mentoring services.

    You can find my specific article for these securities by going to search and my name in SeekingAlpha.com.

     

    There is more supporting information about my work / analytics in the following URLs:

     

    My Personal / Private Blog  --  Investing Wisely:  (Introductory Information about my Investment Methodology)

     

    http://twitter.com/InvestRotation

     

    Three articles supporting my “Three Pillars” of my Investment Methodology that you may want to read:  (the title for each is at the end of the below URLs)

     

    Using the Dow 30 Industrials as an example of the importance of ‘Rotation” here is a current list of the Top 3 or 10% and the Bottom 3 or 10% of these components:

     

    Top (Best of the Best):  CAT, PFE, CVX.

     

    Bottom ( Worst of the Worst):  CSCO, BAC, HPQ.

     

    If you will look at my Charts of these examples you will get the picture as to Why I invest using my Rotation Model.  It is simple – it is much more consistently Profitable!

     

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation

     

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation

     

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/104062-inflection-points-a-short-explanation

     

    If you would like an opinion on securities in your portfolio and you are a serious investor, please feel free to Email me with your request.  I would appreciate your first reading my Bio. in SeekingAlpha.com to be sure we are at least a little bit compatible.  Use this URL for my Bio and other information:

     

    http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer

     

    Please understand that I do not read and definitely do not reply to anything coming to me from the SeekingAlpha.com – Message Board or Comments on my articles.  I also will not read or respond to what I consider to be negative, brief or demanding language from any perspective or any source.  Please consider using my Email Address to open a positive dialog on Investing Wisely.

     

    Thanks for your interest in my work / analytics and perhaps you will consider my professional services.

     

    Smile, have fun – Investing Wisely,

     

    Steven Bauer,  Ph.D.

     

    Stocks: AAPL, HPQ, AXP, MDLZ, TRV, CVX
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