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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
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Investing Wisely
  • Alcoa, Inc. (AA) – This One Is A Tough Call ! ! ! 0 comments
    Jun 14, 2013 4:34 AM | about stocks: AA
    Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE:AA) - This One is a Tough Call ! ! !

    Here is one of the Dow 30 component Companies that is what I call "A Tough Call." After you have years of experience in Forecasting it boils down to "Easy Calls" and Tough Calls." I have learned that unless it is an "Easy Call" with near Excellent Fundamentals and Technicals - I just move on until I find one that is. When you have a large universe of nearly all the quality and conservative Companies, it is remarkable to most Investors when I say: There are always Excellent Companies that are "Easy Calls" at or around a Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point.

    The reason (AA) is a "Tough Call" and that it is unique for the current Dow component Companies is that -- it is currently selling for about half of its high of $17. - in early 2011. Just how much lower can it go?

    Answer: I am looking for a "Probability for Profit" of at least 20% or more when I Recommend a security. Back to its lows and lower is possible, but you will note that my Fundamentals are not all that bad and there is a mini-floor Technically.

    - - -

    Alcoa, Inc. -- (AA)

    Fundamentals: (Old-Fashioned Valuations Must be - in Place before Taking Positions). The Earnings Growth of (AA) is on the decline from some lofty numbers in the coming months and years. This does not support strong price appreciation of any security. The current Price of (AA) has not kept up with most all other Dow 30 Companies.

    Technicals: The Indicators are all pointing DOWN to FLAT. Buying is definitely not prudent.

    I can help you with this if you ask.

    - - -

    Opinion: If you own Alcoa, Inc. - take Profits at the next peak or soon thereafter.

    Forecast: Coming Down in the Short (one - three months) to Intermediate (three - nine months)-Term. Sell now? No - not without Guidance from a professional. Most "professionals" will advise holding or even buying. Do they EVER recommend selling or offer a Bearish "Warning" such as the above?

    - - -

    Want more detail? Send me an Email.

    Dr. Steve

    Stocks: AA
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