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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Caterpiller, Inc.(CAT) – This One Is A Easy Call ! ! ! 0 comments
    Jun 14, 2013 5:25 AM | about stocks: CAT

    Caterpiller, Inc. (NYSE:CAT) - This One is a Easy Call ! ! !

    Here again is one of the Dow 30 component Companies that is what I call "A Easy Call." It is very similar to Alcoa, Inc. but has a more negative Valuation and Technically it is also negative. After you have years of experience in Forecasting it boils down to "Easy Calls" and Tough Calls." I have learned that unless it is an "Easy Call" with near Excellent Fundamentals and Technicals - I just move on until I find one that is. When you have a large universe of nearly all the quality and conservative Companies, it is remarkable to most Investors when I say: There are always Excellent Companies that are "Easy Calls" at or around a Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point.

    The reason (CAT) is a "Easy Call" and that it is unique for the current Dow component Companies is that -- it is currently selling at $85 - off its highs of $113 in early 2012. The Company can come DOWN more than you might think!

    I am looking for a "Probability for Profit" of at least 20% or more when I Recommend a security. My Fundamentals are not all that good.

    - - -

    Caterpiller, Inc. -- (CAT)

    Fundamentals: (Old-Fashioned Valuations Must be - in Place before Taking Positions). The projected Earnings Growth of (CAT) is UP next year and then DOWN again for the foreseeable future. This does not support strong price appreciation of any security. The current Price of (CAT) has more recently clearly kept up with many other Dow 30 Companies that are currently and remain lofty.

    Technicals: The Indicators are all pointing to being FLAT to DOWN. Buying is definitely not prudent at this price.

    I can help you with this if you ask.

    - - -

    Opinion: Hold, if you own Caterpiller, Inc. - be prepared to take Profits in the coming weeks.

    Forecast: The is nothing to suggest that it Coming Down in the Short (one - three months) to Intermediate (three - nine months)-Term. Hold for now? And seek Guidance from a professional. Most "professionals" will advise holding or even buying. Do they EVER recommend selling or offer a Bearish "Warning" such as the above?

    - - -

    Want more detail? Send me an Email.

    Dr. Steve

    Stocks: CAT
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