Steven Bauer's  Instablog

Steven Bauer
Send Message
My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Flash – Update – Be Selective II 0 comments
    Jul 25, 2013 8:31 AM | about stocks: AAPL, BAC, C, GOOG, F, MSFT, INTC

    Flash - Update - Be Selective II

    I have recently received an unusually large number of Emails on this subject.

    I feel I must apologize for perhaps not making myself clear as to my newest Breakthrough in my Research (work / analytics).

    Clarification of my Analytics Claim:

    * What I AM NOT SAYING - - is: Unless there is a Major Quantifiable Divergence (MQD) the Company or ETF will not have a decent or even good percentage move after a Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point. I strongly believe "News" can temporarily distort or influence the price of any stock for a time.

    * What I AM SAYING - - is: When there is a Major Quantifiable Divergence (MQD), either Bullish or Bearish, there is a 99% Probability that there will be at least a 20% change in price from my measured and quite clear Inflection Point. I have exhaustively back-tested my (MQD) to the point that the above sentence is as accurate as my words have said.

    Support for my Accuracy in Forecasting Enabling Excellence in Being Selective

    A back-testing example would be Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL): My Bearish Divergence in September 2012 was "Major" and the Company immediately lost over 40% (high $688 to low $388). My conclusion is that my Major Quantifiable Divergence - WORKS PERFECTLY - in Bearish Market Conditions.

    Another back-testing example would be Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F): My Bullish Divergence in July 2012 was "Major" and the Company immediately appreciated to the present level a gain of over 80% (low $9. to present price of $17). My conclusion is that my Major Quantifiable Divergence - WORKS PERFECTLY - in Bullish Market Conditions.

    IT "WORKS" and is VERY PROFITABLE ! ! !

    These are but two of the many (nearly 1,000) "back-tested" Companies and ETF I have made.

    Performance

    I published my performance - Please see this URL - - > http://www.safehaven.com/article/27142/update-investing-wisely-performance of these 13 Companies that I recommended Publicly in SafeHaven.com in June of 2012.

    I have spend over a year pondering why Apple, Inc. (AAPL) / Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) / Citigroup (NYSE:C) / Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) were all up over thirty percent and Ford Motor Company (F) - I sold a break-even / Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) / Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) were up so very little. Note that all 13 Companies were profitable.

    As a Financial Analyst and Asset Manager for over 50 years this kind of discrepancy in performance has ALWAYS bothered me mucho! The Answer to my "Bother" is rather Esoteric but has become Very Real for Maximizing Profitability

    Simple Stated: I have integrated my Fundamental Valuation work with my Technical Analysis work and been able to Quantify any Company, ETF or Indice / Sector / Industry Group or Commodity on a Daily basis.

    As of this date I have over 300 Companies and ETFs that are developing a "Major" Bearish Quantifiable Divergence from my Universe of securities.

    As of this date I have only 30 Companies and ETFs that are developing a "Major" Bullish Quantifiable Divergence from my Universe of securities.

    This ratio of 300 / 30 or ten to one, should strongly suggest support for my being Bearish for the General Market!

    Give me any list and I can tell you whether or not the Company or ETF has a "99%" Probability of being profitable by over 20% in the up-coming or next Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point. Higher Beta and Volatility Companies definitely offer higher percentages of profitability than those Companies with low a Beta or Volatility. Of course that makes sense and you already knew that was a "fact" in the Stock Market.

    Remember the Marketplace CYCLES from Bull to Bear to Bull again over time. That is also a "FACT," a very Profitable Fact indeed!

    Hind-Sight

    Hind-Sight is a wonderful tool if you take the time to learn from it. That is what I have done with my analytical life / career and it has paid off very, very well.

    You might want to check out my Personal Blog. I cover a lot of ground each and every day. Just Click - - > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    You might want to check out "Be Selective I" - Just Click - - >

    For a Full Listing of my most Current Articles - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer/instablog/full_index

    Would you be interested in Professional Guidance and Direction. I have over 50 years of Asset Management experience with excellent results?

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    Stocks: AAPL, BAC, C, GOOG, F, MSFT, INTC
Back To Steven Bauer's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.