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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Economic Indicators Are Excellent Leaders (If You Pick And Choose) - - Gross Domestic Product { GDP }  0 comments
    Aug 30, 2013 10:56 AM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, AAPL, GE, GOOG, F, T, XOM

    Economic Indicators Are Excellent Leaders (if you pick and choose) - - Gross Domestic Product { GDP }

    It has been awhile since I shared my Economic views and that needs to be corrected by me.

    As a doctor of economics, I monitor the Economy of the U.S. and to a lesser extent the Global Economies very, very closely. Here my reason: For several decades I have found that there are a few, and I mean a "few" U.S. Economic Indicators that actually LEAD the U.S. and fortunately most other Countries Stock Markets.

    Leading Indicators, for me, is what it is all about to Profit consistently in the Stock Market.

    Every day I read some, what I call "worthless garble that tells me what happened in the past. Some even suggest that the past foretells the future. This is or can be true, but LEADING Indicators are pure. They give me a heads-up and to an extent all I have to do is wait for that scenario to unfold.

    That is why I also preach Discipline and Patience along with my ever present preaching about "Being Selective."

    The Gross Domestic Product { GDP } ) is one of my "leading" favorites.

    What is GDP?

    It is all about the Consumer. There are four components: a) Personal Consumption Expenditures; b) Gross Private Domestic Investment; c) Net Exports of Goods and Services; d) Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment.

    There is another important element to GDP. It is Per Capita GDP. I am and have been Bearing on the Stock Market because this particular Indicator hit a high in 2007 and has not recovered since. Remember, this Indicator should be growing!

    Historically my proprietary Indicators have been 100% perfect in LEADING both meaningful Rallies and Pull-Backs. Sometimes the Lead Time is only a couple weeks and other times it is several or more weeks. That is Ok with me because, it is the Heads-Up that enables me to turn to other Indicators that "Confirm" that the { GDP } is correct once again.

    As you know many "Technical" Indicators provide what ends up being "False Signals." This Economic Indicator simple is 100% accurate.

    So, where is it today? Answer: It remains Bullish, but is deteriorating notably.

    What does that mean to me? Answer: It means that there are at least a few weeks of Topping left to Develop. Yes, folks - - I know -- but -- I also have the necessary "Discipline and Patience" to wait. That is because the rewards for the ( D and P ) are substantial! I hope you can learn to believe that to be both true and profitable.

    I will write about my other Economic Indicators in future contributions to my Personal Blog. My Blog is Updated Daily and offers continuous Forecasts and Opinions on many Companies, Global and Domestic Indices, Sectors, etc. Click and you will be glad you did.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    Stocks: SPY, QQQ, AAPL, GE, GOOG, F, T, XOM
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