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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Global Markets – Ex U.S. - - Supporting Analytics For My Global Market Articles  0 comments
    Sep 2, 2013 2:10 PM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, CHL, RDS.B, PTR, HSBC, TM, NVS, BHP, VOD, BBL, BUD, BP, SNY, TOT, GSK, ABEV, UL, UN, BTI, EC, NCO, CEOEGY, RY, PBR, SAP, WBK, TSM, RIO, MTU, E, SNP, LYG

    Global Markets - Ex U.S. - - Supporting Analytics for My Global Market Articles

    My logo is: "Investing Wisely."

    The below Table lists my Global Markets for on an going perspective of World Economies, Finance and Stock Markets.

    In this Table, I share my Forecast and Opinions - - Updated at least Weekly. There are about 30 Countries or Area Indices represented. (see below table - scroll down).

    My on going Analytics (research) with Global Market is the same as for any U.S. Indice / Sector / Industry Group / Commodity / ETF or Company. That is to identify the current most Favorable investment securities, in Bullish Time Frames as well as the current most Un-Favorable investment securities, in Bearish Time Frames for conservative and low-risk ownership. During periods of uncertainty (Favorable / Unfavorable) I Formally Recommend to my Clients to HOLD-CASH. Cash is a wise choice that many Investors seem to ignore. Holding Cash improves my annual performance by at least ten percent, each and every year.

    Global Markets is just one of the many Analytic (research) Categories that I maintain very detailed notes, Forecasts and Opinions on in order to stay ahead of my job - - "Investing Wisely."

    Clearly, this means that in Bullish Cycles I am going to focus on and primarily work with (investments in) the most Favorable securities. Conversely, in Bearish Cycles I am going to focus on and primarily work (investments in) with the most Un-Favorable securities.

    Typically this Favorable / Un-Favorable research procedure can easily be separated into the Top 10% and the Bottom 10%. I always stretch this by just a bit so I can provide proper Asset Allocation for my Clients. For example: my Universe of quality Companies is well over 2,000 Companies. That means I have, for Buying in Bullish Cycles over 200 Candidates on my Favorable - Asset Management / Buy List. I seldom Buy (make Formal Buy Recommendations) for more than 20 different securities in order to meet my Client's - Asset Allocation Model. That means, I am "cherry picking" from what I believe are the most conservative, lowest risk Companies that have the highest probability and price appreciation projections from a wide and very lucrative source. (please re-read this last sentence a second or third time). With regard to Bearish Cycles in the Stock Market the above "example" works the same only with an opposite perspective.

    Each Country, around the world, listed below has a number of quality component Companies that are often listed on the U.S. Exchanges such as the New York and the Nasdaq. There are also, most often, ETFs for each Country.

    I realize there are more Global "Indexes" and welcome your suggestions. My Methodology for Analytics is applicable to any Index / Indice / Sector / Industry Group / Commodity / Company or ETF. I hope you will offer your suggestions and I will in return offer you my direct and personal opinions of your input.

    To Keep-Up with my Most Favorable (Currently) and Most Un-Favorable (Currently) - Please Consider Becoming Familiar with my Personal Blog.

    URL: http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    My Universe of Global Markets - Countries with Symbol and Forecast / Current Opinion

    Symbol

    Name of Country & Exchange

    Forecast / Opinion

     

    $MERV

    Argentina Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $P2DOW

    Asia/Pacific - Ex Japan Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $AORD

    Australia Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $BEL

    Brussels Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $BVSP

    Brazilian Bovespa Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $CADOW

    Canada Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $FTX

    China - FTSE/Xinhua 50 Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $MSEMF

    Emerging Markets Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $STOX5E

    EURO STOXX 50

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

    $E1DOW

    Europe Index

    same

    $XEO

    European S&P 100 Index

    same

    $EUR

    European Top 100

    same

     

    $FRDOW

    France Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

    $CAC

    French CAC 40 Index

    same

     

    $DAX

    German DAX Composite

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $NQGM

    Global Market Index (Nasdaq)

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $FTSE

    Great Britain - London Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $HSI

    Hong Kong Hang Seng Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $BSE

    India - Bombay 30 Sensex Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $ITDOW

    Italy Stock Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $NK300

    Japan - Tokyo Nikkei 300 Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

    $NIKK

    Japan - Tokyo Nikkei Average

    same

     

    $A3DOW

    Latin American Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

       

    $MXX

    Mexican Bolsa IPC Stock Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

    $MXDOW

    Mexico Stock Index

    same

     

    $AEX

    Netherlands - Amsterdam Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $P2DOW

    Philippines PSE Composite Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $RTSI

    Russian (RTS) Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $DJSH

    Shanghai Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

    $SSEC

    Shanghai Composite Index

    Same

     

    $STI

    Singapore Straits Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $KOSPI

    South Korea - Seoul Composite

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    $IBEX

    Spain - Bolsa IBEX 35 Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

    $ESDOW

    Spain Stock Index

    same

     

    $SEDOW

    Sweden Stock Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $SMI

    Swiss Market Index

    Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLD for now . . .

     

    $TWII

    Taiwan Weighted Index

    Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLD-CASH . . .

     

    Notes for Table:

    The Symbol and Country Name / Exchange Description is simple what Global Indices I use to keep my Analytics and Perspective both current and accurate. (Symbols are those necessary to use StockCharts.com)

    The Forecast and Opinion: For Public Publication I have four ( 4 ) designations. Each are Dynamic, meaning they are in transition and often illusive to the Public Investor.

    Forecast:

    In my Analytics - - I note if - "they" are: a) Going-Up perhaps further - Strong Bullish "Alert" - or - b) Anticipating their Going-Up after "Bottoming" more - Initial Bullish "Alert" - or - c) Coming-Down perhaps further - Strong Bearish "Warning" - or - d) Anticipating their after Coming-Down after "Topping" more - Initial Bearish "Warning."

    * Initial Bullish "Alert" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I am sufficiently convinced that the security will become a Buy or a Cover at some reasonable (in weeks) future date.

    * Strong Bullish "Alert" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I either own - or - would consider owning this security, if at a future date it met my very stringent "Confirmation" criterion.

    * Initial Bearish "Warning" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I am sufficiently convinced that the security will become a Sell or a Short at some reasonable (in weeks) future date.

    * Strong Bearish "Warning" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I either HOLD-CASH - or - would consider shorting this security, if at a future date it met my very stringent "Confirmation" criterion.

    Opinion:

    ** HOLD : My Opinion is most often to Hold the security for Now. That means I believe that you will benefit for at least the Near-Term (1 - 20 trading days or more). It definitely does not mean I would relax, especially if my Forecast is Bearish.

    ** HOLD-CASH : I typically Hold-Cash after terminating a security from my or my Client's Portfolio. I strongly suggest that Holding-Cash is one of the most prudent strategies of "Investing Wisely." Remember CASH gives you Buying-Power for the next Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point or Cycle.

    What is my "Confirmation?" It is a very precise way to do what I call a "Reality Check" during the time frames that I am Holding-Cash and just prior to Buying / Selling - or - Shorting / Covering.

    - - -

    From this point, my Methodology gets a bit more complex. With my "call" of any of the above four Opinions a very clear Forecast is then developed. (My Analytics (research) notes are extensive and I sometime publish my specific Forecast for the Public).

    From my Forecast I can - - for any given security - - project the probability of profit as well as an accurate percent profit projection - - of the expected percent profit for that possible future investment.

    In order to make a Formal Recommendation of a specific security to my Clients I must have a "probability of profit" of over 90% and a "percent profit projection" of over 20%. This criterion produces consistent and meaningful annual profits. It requires a great deal of "Know How" / Time / both Discipline and Patience. (Do you have those investing ingredients going for you?)

    At Bullish or Bearish Inflection Points there are always a rather large number of securities that meet the above criterion. That is why I daily work on my Asset Management Lists for future Buying and Shorting.

    My Buy List or my Shorting List may or may not come from the above Country Market Indexes. And, you should know that I primarily focus on the U.S. Market because there is typically much

    Concluding Note: More information and data available upon request. Please ask specific questions.

    Forecasts for Consistent Annual Profits

    For me and for over 50 years of managing other people's money - It all begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures. Then it requires Well Honed Fundamental - Valuations, Technical (Unique) Analysis and Consensus Opinion Conformations. It ends with three things: a) Bullish or Bearish or Hold-Cash Recommendations; b) a indisputable and clear Hold / Exit Strategy; c) Profitable Results. ( F / C = PR ).

    Forecasting the Market, then the Sectors, then the Industry Groups, then the Companies and then perhaps the ETFs in critical to the above and consistently enjoying an annual, very profitable bottom line.

    Forecasting is the essential first step of logging those Bullish and Favorable securities as well as those Bearish and Un-Favorable securities. The securities in-between Favorable and Un-Favorable will perhaps surface in a future time frame.

    At Bullish Inflection Points (the beginning or continuance of a Bullish Cycle) - or - at Bearish Inflection Points ( the beginning or countenance of a Bearish Cycle) my Forecasting is always in place. Yes, I definitely "Cherry Pick."

    Think about my so emphatically sharing the importance of Forecasting - Won't You?

    Let's Focus on Investing in ETFs - Applicable for Some of these Global Markets

    ETFs are a strange breed and an Investment security that you should understand very well before you invest your money. Some purportedly track or are in Sync with their Indice, Sector or Industry Group they are supposed to represent. Many do that job very well, but many do not! (Just a few words of Caution).

    ETFs are similar to Mutual Funds in that they are managed by Securities Firms. My personal opinion is that - the skill, and expertise of the Asset Manager(s) is very often questionable, again from my perspective. Remember, they often diversify WAY beyond being reasonable boundaries because of three primary reasons. i) They often have WAY too much money to manage and cannot solely focus on the top tier or 10% of those Companies that are current "Favorable." This greatly mitigates their performance. ii) They totally impersonal and have no clue as to your investment/financial needs, goals and objectives. They just do their best and that is not good enough for me. iii) They NEVER take their portfolios to CASH. That is just plain Stupid!

    Some ETFs are supposed to be one-on-one and others are leveraged. That too is a consideration before investing your money.

    Suffice it to say: When Investing in ETFs" like any other security, Be Ware / Be Prepared / Be Patient and Disciplined with your Investment Decisions!

    - - -

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    Stocks: SPY, QQQ, CHL, RDS.B, PTR, HSBC, TM, NVS, BHP, VOD, BBL, BUD, BP, SNY, TOT, GSK, ABEV, UL, UN, BTI, EC, NCO, CEOEGY, RY, PBR, SAP, WBK, TSM, RIO, MTU, E, SNP, LYG
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