Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) -- Bi-Monthly Update
Each week I review all of my High Profile Technology / Software - - Indexes, Companies and ETFs. This is a study that is more than a treat for me to do because I get to update and explore many Companies like (MSFT). Each time, it supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.36%
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This week's Commentary on - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
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The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Microsoft. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Microsoft Corp. and other Software Companies are tracking well. Although (MSFT) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. Unfortunately, I suggest it is beginning to tell a Bearish Story. . . My Forecasting of Microsoft over the years has been near perfect. From a December low of $26 to a present price of $36 isn't bad for a Company like Microsoft. That was Forecast too!
My Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning a Big Software / etc. Companies, the securities have definitely become a mixed bag. Mostly strong but like always you need to find the best through being very selective. Microsoft is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Analytics (weighting - 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (MSFT) are not bad but not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources or compared to a number of peer Companies. Plainly stated they are improving but Flat.
My Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.
Fundamentally: My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (MSFT) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
Technically: Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its highs of $35 selling for $33. The next rally is coming soon and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (MSFT).
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (MSFT) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(MSFT): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37471439789&a=310675869
A Rather Unique Chart / Graphic on (MSFT):
URL for this representation of - (MSFT): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96514067251&a=311487326
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline & Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Software Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: MSFT, ORCL, SYMC, CRM, CDNS, NUAN, CA, CPWR, ADBE, VMW, ADSK, BMC, CTXS, PAY, CHKP, NQ, INTU, SAP, SWI, FIRE, RHT, INFA, NEON, JIVE, SREV, PMTC, CNQR, CVLT.
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