Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -- Bi-Monthly Update
Along with its Dow 30 peers, Johnson & Johnson is also showing possible future weakness. The current rally is good but (just maybe) not good enough for my satisfaction. My on going study of all my High Profile Health Care / Pharmaceuticals supports this picture. This is a study that is a pleasure for me to do because I have spent so much time and experience in the study of fine Companies like (JNJ). Each time, it is a confidence builder for my work.
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This week's Commentary on - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.90%
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The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Johnson & Johnson. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Johnson & Johnson and other Health Care Companies are tracking the Dow Industrials well. Although (JNJ) is currently in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. Forecasting Johnson & Johnson is also amongst the easiest there is. Until severe Bear Markets take it Down, which is ALWAYS, it Forecasts very positively. This is why I am a very cautious and prudent Asset Manager. The last two Bear Markets of 1999 and 2008 each took over 40% of your hard earned growth away for well over a year each. Please study my 20 year chart below and follow my Bearish "Warnings" and you will hopefully see why I spend so much of my time Forecasting.
My Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Pharmaceutical Companies, the securities have definitely become a mixed bag. Johnson & Johnson is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, they are flat for the foreseeable future. I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.
Fundamentally: My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (JNJ) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Flat to mildly Descending.
Technically: Even with this stalwart Company, my Indicators are breaking down. It is only currently selling for $91. from a high of $94. The current rally, is in place and working reasonable well for (JNJ). It like all other rallies and pull-backs will tell an accurate story as to the future direction of the price of (JNJ). After 50 years of studying (JNJ), it is just a matter of knowing how to read those ups and downs.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (JNJ) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Invest Wisely." Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(JNJ): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNJ&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42325877048&a=311129748
A Rather Unique Chart / Graphic on (JNJ):
URL for this representation of - (JNJ): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNJ&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p59238740638&a=311129745
Selectivity
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Large Cap Phama Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY, ABT, LLY, ABBV, AGN, GSK, AZN, NVS, SNY, NVO.
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