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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Tuesday -- ( Forecasting The U.S. Stock Market ) – November 5th 0 comments
    Nov 5, 2013 9:20 AM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA

    Tuesday -- ( Forecasting the U.S. Stock Market ) - November 5th

    My logo is: "Investing Wisely."

    There are just two time frames that I work with. Near-Term (1 - 30 Days) and Short-Term (1 - 3 Months). Meaningful and Profitable Inflection Points (Bullish Buys and Bearish Shorts) can readily be Identified using a rather simple combination of these two time frames. Longer-Term ( 3 - 6 Months and beyond ) Forecasts have become, in my opinion, a worthless expenditure of research time and energy. I'm sure you understand my principal that is: when I have the Near-Term and then the Short-Term accurately Forecast the Longer-Term simple falls in place.

    The "Dynamics" of the Marketplace has changed dramatically from the "old days" and that is a fact that must be understood in the pursuit of Consistent Annual Profits. In other words using the baseball expression - hit and run - is now the way to Profit.

    As a point of clarity: I am not a Trader I am an Investor. I will always let my profits accumulate over the longer-term as evidenced in every article I have published. Please read a few of my articles and you will see what I mean, they are accurate Forecasts from which to Profit.

    There are always many road-signs telling you - very inaccurate information about the direction of the Stock Market. I hope you will soon see and understand the importance of: a) first Forecasting, and then b) second Making Prudent and Profitable Investment Decisions, and c) third Monitoring and Continuing to Forecast all investments Frequently. That is how I go about consistently making money in the stock market.

    In addition, for several decades I have used what I call an I.P. Count to identify Bullish and Bearish Short-Term ( one to three month ) Inflection Points. Years ago I was fortunate to be able to mathematically quantify the movement of the General Market into what I call I.P. Counts. It is rather complex but in brief, when my "I.P. Count" begins to increase quantitatively, either Bullish or Bearish I know that an Inflection Point is eminent. Forecasting keeps me "ahead" of all the confusing road-signs.

    The Current Status of my I.P. Count is: Neutral with a Bearish Bias

    The General U.S. Stock Market

    This week (so far) the General Market is UP and within my Forecasts. That will likely continue for a short while.

    I work with Cycles and only Cycles. Not one of the many approaches you read about offer even a reasonable Probability for Profit. Reasonable for me is well over 90% and that is my current performance. In my doctoral studies we studied everything you can find except Cycle Analysis. So, that was my doctoral thesis. It made sense at the time for me and continues to both make sense and profits today. Even today there is little written about Cycles. This DOES NOT include seasonal cycles. A supportive article on My SHB Cycle Analysis can be viewed by Clicking. I hope you will permit me to help improve your "Probabilities for Profit."

    At this time I am primarily holding Cash and am focused on a Topping and very likely a new Bearish Inflection Point or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish Cycle and perhaps a monster Bear Market.

    For the Near-Term: ( one day to thirty days ) A mini or bounce rally is in the making. My question is whether it will once again produce new highs or will yet another Indice wane. The first to "wane" was the Dow 30 and there is no assurance at this time it too could, I said could, go back to new highs. The Nasdaq is the current powerhouse and it will likely make new highs again.

    The Bulls are very close to running out of the euphoric attempts to move the General Market UP. There has been very little convincing evidence (Economically or Fundamentally) that the current rally or even future rallies will be sustained. The coming days and perhaps a couple / few weeks will be a very fun time for me to once again fully testing my 50+ year Methodology of "Investing Wisely."

    For the Short-Term: ( one month to three months ) Topping is over-due but there can be no Bearish Forecast made for the Near-Term. Oh, it will happen but there will first be Topping. I call it a "Dance at the Top" and have learned to enjoy the dance and be patient.

    You problem or perhaps I should the Investor's problem is that there are notable numbers of Companies taking major hits on the downside. This is the subtile way of the marketplace and only excellent Technical Analysis can help prevent major losses. Few, Investors that I have had contact will have the Technical Tools to deal with this kind of "Loss Prevention."

    If you are interested in my work you will have to read my daily articles for a time and then ask me questions about my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."

    This URL will take you to my most current articles and you can then go back to my archive for any of the Companies I write about to check me out for accuracy.

    http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer/instablog/full_index

    More General Market ( Forecast ) Updates to follow - at least a couple per week. You might want to visit my Personal Blog: > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    Stay tuned - my "stuff" is very accurate . . .

    Let me know if I can help. senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,

    Dr. Steve

    - - -

    Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA
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