International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) -- Bi-Monthly Update
IBM is experiencing a serious pull-back in price and that is not looking at all positive for the longer-term. I may well be advising my Clients to move to Cash if there is not notable improvement in the next rally.
My weekly study of all my High Profile Technology / Computer Services Companies suggests that (IBM) is no longer a strong Hold. This is another study that I enjoy very much and (IBM) is often an excellent bellwether for the general market.
My objective, each time around, is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This week's Commentary on - International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.12%
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
International Business Machines Corp. and other Computer Services Companies are NOT tracking well but are looking anemic. Although (IBM) no longer remains in a positive up-trend, it began weakening earlier in the year and has not improved. (IBM) is always an excellent contributor to my Forecasting and Analytics. Forecasting (IBM) is amongst the easier ones because of a highly predictable ebb and flow.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle - But Weakening - - Caution is Strongly Advised:
The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (IBM). In good times this conservative giant does the job quite well along with paying a decent dividend. The "good times" may well be over for the foreseeable future.
International Business Machines (IBM) | ||
Forecasted Bullish "Alerts" |
Ascending | At this time (IBM) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past few years of about +25%. (that's per year - not including dividends). It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly. |
| Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated: March, 2009 @ $80.00 Performance to Date: +125% | ||
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My Current Forecast is not as bright and positive as in the past !
If you own or are considering owning Computer Services Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). International Business Machines Corp. is currently strong / weakening Technically and I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is HOLD with Very Strong Caution !
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but my Valuations are "Flat" producing future declining projections of price.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The pull-back since March when it was selling for at about $213 is offering strong support for my Bearish "Warning." A General Market re-bound rally is in progress (with the exception for the negative "News" - - the strength of which will be very important as to when I will advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." It is selling for $179 - more than 10% off its highs. Again, this produces a Warning with Strong Caution.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (IBM) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of) (IBM): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBM&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89116737430&a=310675868
Selectivity
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Computer Services Industry Group that I focus on: IBM, FTNT, NCR, DBD, FFIV, TDC, CERN, WIT, MCRS, MENT, WAVX.
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