J. P. Morgan Chase & Company (NYSE:JPM) -- Bi-Monthly Update
(JPM) has once again hit new highs, but they won't and didn't last long. In July it hit a new high and proceeded to lose over 10%. The future does not compute positively. I'll keep you posted. My previous articles on JPM (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting accuracy and much more.
I have completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Financial / Major Regional Banks - and they are no longer as hot as in the past year or so. This is a study that is fun because I dislike what Banks represent in today's economic and financial world. I have spent a great deal of time and have much experience in the study of Companies like (JPM).
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This Bi-Monthly Commentary on - J. P. Morgan Chase & Company (JPM) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
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Income Investors - Dividend Yield for (JPM): 2.71%
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning J. P. Morgan Chase. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
J. P. Morgan Chase & Company and other Financial / Banking Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (JPM) has been in Up-Trend for well over a year it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. It is showing its negative side for the past month or so.
The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (JPM). In good times this conservative giant does the job quite well along with paying a decent dividend. Good times are always followed by Bad times!
JP Morgan Chase & Company (JPM)
Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"
At this time (JPM) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past few years of about +15%. (that's per year - not including dividends).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.
Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:
July, 2009 @ $30.00
Performance to Date: +73%
Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on JP Morgan Chase - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Banks are Forecast as Bearish, but that Forecast will likely require more time to develop. Caution is advised.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Financial / Banking Companies, the securities are definitely rather strong. J. P. Morgan Chase & Company is currently. I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, there I have placed it on an Initial - Bearish Forecast - "Warning." That means take profits on the next rally. (I can help with decision making if you want). My Forecasts since the lows of late 2011 have be positive.
My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (JPM) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are not improving and not very impressive. Alternate and similar Companies are showing much better Fundamentals.
My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (JPM) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company for a long-term Hold.
Technically - ( weighting 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its highs of $58 selling for $56. The current rally is not helping (JPM) and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (JPM). At this point it is very tentative!
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (JPM) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of J. P. Morgan Chase & Company (JPM)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Invest Wisely." J. P. Morgan Chase & Company (JPM) has taken some big hits over the years. You must try to understand that you can no longer expect pull-backs or Bear Markets to recover as in the past. If you are a senior you must understand you no longer have the years to wait out both a Bear Market and the recovery. A three percent dividend clearly pails when 30% to 50% of your capital erodes. I hope you take heed.
URL for (20-years of -(JPM): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JPM&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10973679370&a=312039536
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Major Banking Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, KEY, USB, FITB, BK, STI, BBT, PNC, STT, CMA, NTRS, MTB, BKU.
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