Coca Cola Company (The) (NYSE:KO) -- Bi-Monthly Update
Coke is down and looking anemic since May. The recent 10%+ Pull-Back (Peak to Trough) has partially recovered but at today's price it remains vulnerable to further downside! It's doing Ok, but just Ok is never good enough for me.
My previous articles on KO (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting accuracy and much more.
Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Income Allocation Model Portfolios is available by clicking: Income Performance. I believe it accurately shares the rather positive results by first Forecasting and then making Investment Decisions. I hope you will agree.
I completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Consumer / Beverage - Soft Drink Companies. This is a study that is of particular interest to me because I have spent so much time and experience in the study of Companies like (KO). Working with these fine companies is a pleasure.
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield for (KO): 2.77%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
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This Bi-Monthly Commentary on - Coca Cola Company (The) (KO) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
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My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Coke. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast, Opinion & Results -- from my 50+ Years of Work / Analytics:
Coca Cola Company (The) and other Consumer Staples Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (KO) has been in Up-Trend since 2009 and it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts have been near perfect and I am now loosing my Bullish enthusiasm. We will soon see if Coke should be sold.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle - - Perhaps Weakening:
The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (KO). Yet in good times this conservative giant does the job quite well along with paying a decent dividend.
Coca Cola Company (The) (KO)
Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"
Ascending but Topping
At this time (KO) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past few years of about +20%. (that's per year - not including dividends).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.
Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:
June, 2009 @ $20.00
Performance to Date: +95%
Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Coca Cola Company - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
You might want to have a long look at the below 20 year chart and decide if you want to HOLD through another one plus year pull back and two years of peak to trough to peak again. This is a clue as to what I suggest you have in perspective when owning any Company or ETF.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is that Coca Cola that it is Topping and not as brilliant as it was just six months ago! This has to do with the state of the General Market and that is also not as 'bright as you may think." Please study my 20 year chart offered below - - when the General Market is Bearish so is (KO) !
If you own or are considering owning Beverage Companies, the securities have definitely become a mixed bag of both good and not so good. Coca Cola is strong both Fundamentally and Technically, however, I have placed it on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (KO) are not as positive as perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and look quite positive. This alone does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its highs of $43 selling for $40. The October rally is one that is tell a compelling story as to the longer-term future direction of the price of (KO). That is not a positive future.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (KO) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Coca Cola Company (The) (KO)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Coca Cola Company (The) (KO) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(KO): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KO&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16436481460&a=312039537
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Beverage Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: KO, PEP, WWAV, CCE, MNST, DPS, FMX, COT.
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