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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Historical Review of: 2007 – 2009 – Bear Market - & - 2011 – 2012 – Bear Market 0 comments
    Dec 24, 2011 10:45 AM | about stocks: AAPL, AA, AXP, BA, BAC, CAT, CSCO, CVX, DD, DIS, GE, HD, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MDLZ, KO, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, PFE, PG, T, TRV, UTX, VZ, WMT, XOM
    Historical Review of:  2007 – 2009 – Bear Market - & - 2011 – 2012 – Bear Market

    I have identified many Bear Markets over the 50 plus years of being a private asset manager and financial analyst.

    Something to Ponder both Bullish, as well as Bearish time frames.  I often refer you to the 30 component stocks of the Dow Jones Average and ask you to look at where each of these component stocks are since the late 1990s.  Twelve or fifteen years should Get Your Attention by the FACT that only ??? of these Companies were making new ( Long – Term ) highs when the 2011 Bear Market commenced in April of this past year – 2011.  They are:  CAT, CVX, DIS, IBM, JNJ, MCD, MMM, TRV, UTX, VZ.  Ten ( 10 ) of Thirty ( 30 )  --  10 / 30 is 33%.  As an old Professor of Economics and Finance if you scored 33% on my tests you flunked and did not graduate.  In the stock market it is just as simple -  if your score 33% you Lose Money!   Isn’t that Scary and Something to Ponder with the world Economic Condition – as it is and will be for the foreseeable future?

    For graphic support of this missive, please have a look at the charts that I have presented in StockCharts – PubicList.  The URL is:

     

    stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS...

     

    Well here is 2007 in a nut shell and why I came out of retirement to try to help:

    There were two distinct major pull backs in this Primary Bear Market of 2007 through 2009.  I have broken down both pull backs by using my (primary) five proprietary Technical Indicators. As usual, both these Pull Backs were rather briefly interrupted by what is called a Bear Market Rally. 

    The 2007 – 2009 Bear market was a bit unique.  Its devastation to you portfolios, and that there were just two pull backs instead of the usual three.  Often in the more distant Bear Markets there were three or more distinct major pull backs before a bottom was reached. 

    We will now have to wait and see what will come in the ensuing months and quarters ahead for this current Bear Market?  I hope you are in Cash or seeking experienced guidance for prudently taking some Bear Market positions. 

    At this writing, I cannot see any positive long-term changes from the Bearish Position I took, in this blog, way back in October of 2010.

    Not one of these specific five Technical Indicators were available in any Chart Service prior to 2007 and at the time that I -- came out of retirement and published a single mini blog saying that:  “A 2007 Bear Market is upon us, and you had better move your investment positions to Cash.”  This was in October 2007.  I only had only a few Clients to advise and more important to you – ( Inverse ) ETFs were not prudent and mature investment choices as yet – today ETFs is a flourishing part of the U. S. and foreign Stock Market activity.

    My (primary) five Indicators are all “Leading Indicators” – that means they are anticipatory and lead me to my procedures for “fine tuning” and the eventual Taking Selective Investment Positions as appropriate in either Bull or Bear Market environments.  Obviously, in this case (October 2007), it was taking selective Bearish (Short) Positions.

    I would like to be very clear that Technical Analysis is by far the most dynamic of the three forms of Securities Analysis (Analytics) that I use.  It can be graphically presented for all of the world to study in just a few picture charts.  It is very important for me to note that as a financial analyst / asset manager for over 50 years I view both Fundamental Analysis and Consensus Analysis as having as much, or more, to do with the identification of Primary Inflections Points as does Technical Analysis.  Unfortunately, to present an adequate picture of the current or past Fundamental and Consensus Analysis would take volumes of pages and therefore, is not practical in such a short missive.  I believe you should also know that Inflection Points present themselves rather frequently each year, that is over the on-going  Cycles of the General Stock Market.

    For graphic support of this missive, please have a look at the charts that I have presented in StockCharts – PubicList.  The URL is:

     

    stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS...

     

    Please note both here and on the Historic Chart for the 2007 – 2009 in StockCharts – PublicList, there are specific 2007 – 2009 Bear Market statistics that should seriously get your attention.  If they do not get your attention, you are hopelessly lost forever enjoying the possibility of being a profitable and successful investor!

    Look at the The Stats:  (see the above referenced charts)

    First Leg Down:  Loss of about 11%.

    Second Leg Down:  Loss of about 45%.

    Combined, First and Second Legs Down or a Total Loss of approximately:  56%

    Just for the record, it was much worse than the above with many, many mutual funds!

    - - -

    Well here is 2011 in a nut shell and it is getting very Scary and also Something to Ponder:

    The first leg down was on the Dow 30 Industrials:  12,876 – high and 10, 404 low – ( late April to early October ).  The First Leg Down was a Loss of  19% and worse than the First Leg Down in 2007-2008 by 8 %. 

    Isn’t the Scary ?  Am I – Getting Your Attention and offering Something to Ponder ?

    Folks the Facts and the Numbers are all that count.  You are being fed huge quantities of media, Wall Street, Stock Brokers, Financial Analysts, Blogger  --  Crap and BS.  It is the Facts and the Numbers that you can rely on and Nothing Else  -  now-a-days.

    Have a wonderful holiday season and please – engage your brain just a little bit more than usual.

    AAPL, GE, JPM, WMT, XOM, CHV, AA, BAC, HP, IBM, MSFT, MMM, PFE, MRK, VZ, $GOLD, $SILVER, $WTIC, $USD

    - - -
    I sincerely hope that you will take the time to study the flow of my narrative and come to realize that there is no longer any other way to grow your retirement and general assets.  Mutual Funds and the old “Buy and Hold” is no longer a prudent way to invest your money.
    Stocks: AAPL, AA, AXP, BA, BAC, CAT, CSCO, CVX, DD, DIS, GE, HD, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MDLZ, KO, MCD, MMM, MRK, MSFT, PFE, PG, T, TRV, UTX, VZ, WMT, XOM
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