Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) -- Bi-Monthly Update
Cisco could well (highly likely) be topping after a nice recovery since mid 2011. Caution is definitely Warranted. Nearly a 20% drop from its highs of July is telling me and I hope you a story. You may want to review my articles on CSCO (just click) you will be provided with the exact history of the accuracy of my Forecasting / Formal Recommendations and much more.
Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Cisco Systems, Inc. is available by clicking: (CSCO) I treat Cisco just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.
Having recently completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Technology / Computer Network Companies. This is a study that I enjoy very much and is a treat for me because I have so much time and experience in the study of Companies like (CSCO).
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This week's Commentary on - Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.21%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
Please connect with "My Focus Article." Just Click: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2057252-my-focus-article
Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Cisco Systems. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
- - -
Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Cisco Systems, Inc. and other Networking Companies are tracking well. Although (CSCO) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. A little history for my Forecast for Cisco: in 2010 was clearly on target. It was for a Pull-Back from the March highs of $26 and stuck with it all the way down to $14. - some fifteen months later. March 2010 was three and one half years ago and Cisco is just recently recovered back to $26. I hope you will read the above with an appreciation of just what Accurate Forecasting can do for you and your portfolio. Forecasting with my Methodology can be both profitable and save you heartache, in a Company or General Market Bearish time frame. You might want to - Think About That - for perhaps better / more profitable management of your portfolio in the future.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle - Still Working - but Caution Please:
The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog. Aggressive Investors only - Please.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not often come from Companies like (CSCO). Yet in good times this conservative giant does the job quite well along with paying a decent dividend.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"
At this time (CSCO) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past few years of about +27%. (that's per year - not including dividends).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.
Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:
September, 2011 @ $15.00
Performance to Date: +53%
Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Cisco Systems, Inc. - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
I really seem to have less that my normal confidence when Forecasting Cisco. Performance is just not that rewarding. You will note from my CSCO performance article that profits were good, but not as good as other Companies that I work with.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think !
If you own or are considering owning Networking Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below peers list). Cisco Systems, Inc. is currently strong Technically (back to the highs of early 2010 mentioned above) but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is Hold with Strong Caution ! It is highly likely that I will be recommending via Email to my Clients to Sell - at the next recovery high - that could be very soon.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are producing future declining projections. This coupled with an over-bought and over-valued General Stock Market does not make for a positive fundamental picture to investing into or to perhaps even hold.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The recent large (near-term) pull-back is offering strong support for my Bearish "Warning." A re-bound rally was in the making and will occur - - the strength of which will be very important as to when I will advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." It is only currently slightly off its highs of $26 selling for $21. (CSCO). Hold is getting quite questionable.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.
Please read my previous postings on Cisco: CSCO
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (CSCO) !
- - -
A Twenty Year Perspective of Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of) (CSCO): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSCO&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02768005019&a=311352737
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Telecom Equipment Industry Group that I focus on: CSCO, BRCD, RVBD, TIBX, INFN, EXTR, QLGC, ALVR, XXIA, ELX, ALLT, NTGR.
A Word That Has Been Very Good to Both Me and My Clients
The Word is "Confirmations." I started using this word or better-said "procedure" many years ago when I became dissatisfied by the results of some of my Investments.
It has now become rather simple for me to be quite confident when Investing or making Formal Recommendations. Before taking any position I run through a "Check List" that has increased my percent of profitable investments from good to over 95%. It has also increased my profitability by over 5% (often much more) per transaction. It is very satisfying to me to share this when Investors ask about my professional fees for asset management services.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.
I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.
Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"