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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) -- Semi-Monthly Update 0 comments
    Dec 22, 2013 12:36 PM | about stocks: XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE

    Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) -- Semi-Monthly Update

    Exxon Mobil and Chevron are look a-likes, and you might want to read both my Crude Oil and Chevron articles. This magnitude rally since September of nearly 20% was admittedly unexpected but was both definitely Forecast and is WHY the Company has been on a HOLD.

    My previous articles on XOM (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy.

    My Performance for Exxon Mobil can be found below and is over 18% per year for the last 5 years.

    I just completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Energy - Oil / Gas / Integrated Oil. This is a study that pleases me to do because I have spent so much time and experience in the study of Companies like (XOM). Each time, it is like going to see a person you admire.

    My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.55%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objectives. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance

    This week's Commentary on - Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.

    Please connect with "My Focus Article." Just Click: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2057252-my-focus-article

    Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles

    Income Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Exxon Mobil. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

    - - -

    Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:

    Exxon Mobil Corp. and other Energy / Oil & Gas Companies are tracking well. Although (XOM) remains in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. Accurately Forecasting (XOM) has not been an easy task since the lows of 2009. It took a big hit in early 2011 and I moved to Cash, of about 20% and recovered as was Forecast.

    Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle - - Vulnerable to the Downside:

    The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.

    Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (XOM). In good times this conservative giant does the job quite well along with paying a decent dividend. A GIANT can and HAS in the past - Fallen Hard! (See the below Chart)

    Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

    Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"

    Ascending

    At this time (XOM) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past few years of about +18%. (that's per year - not including dividends).

    It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.

    Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:

    April, 2010 @ $54.00

    Performance to Date: +72%

     

    Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Exxon Mobil - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.

    Or : seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer/ins.../xom

    Only my Forecasting Methodology has consistently and accurately provided advanced "Alerts" for Buying and "Warnings" for Selling. You are the one who must decide which Authors are ( experienced and credentialed ) Financial Analysts who can offer profitable guidance and direction.

    Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .

    For me there is but one Caveat for "Investing Wisely." It IS a FACT that - All securities Cycle in both Bullish and Bearish Markets. I am - Primarily a Bull - but when a Company such as (XOM) is looking Bearish I pay great attention to my Forecasted "Warnings." You should know that there are ALWAYS - - Energy / Oil & Gas Companies that are Very Strong Buys on my Bullish and Favorable "Asset Management" List. Being in - love - with a company ( be it XOM or AAPL, etc. ) is definitely not "Investing Wisely."

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Oil & Gas Companies, the securities are definitely both strong and weak. Exxon Mobil Corp. is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, there I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (XOM) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company for a long-term Hold.

    Technically - ( weighting - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It has recently eclipsed it previous highof $95 selling for $98. The current rally is in place and at its completion will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (XOM).

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (XOM) !

    - - -

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Invest Wisely." Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has taken some big hits over the years.

    URL for (20-years of -(XOM): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOM&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83892495507&a=305205577

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Integrated Oil & Gas Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE.

    If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.

    I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.

    Thanks. . .

    SPY, QQQ, DIA, AAPL, ABX, AMZN, BAC, C, CAT, CSCO, CVX, D, DIS, F, FB, GE, GG, GOOG, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, MSFT, PAAS, PFE, SBUX, SLW, SO, T, VZ, WMT, XOM, GLD, SLV, UCO.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    Stocks: XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE
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