Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) -- Semi-Monthly Update
Chevron looks vulnerable to some serious Down-Side! It may take awhile to develop so keep in touch. Fundamentally it is lucky to be where it is. It has notably under-performed Exxon Mobil more recently. My Forecasts do an excellent job of what I call "Selectivity." Knowing ahead of buy or holding - what will perform and what will not perform is a valuable part of investing your money wisely. (please see below).
My previous articles on CVX (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy.
My Performance for Chevron can be found below and is well over 25% per year for the last 5 years.
I just completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Energy - Oil / Gas / Integrated Oil. This is a study that pleases me to do because I have spent so much time and experience in the study of Companies like (CVX). Each time, it is like visiting with an old and dear friend.
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.26%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
This week's Commentary on - Chevron Corp. (CVX) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
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Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Chevron. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Chevron Corp. and other Energy - Oil & Gas Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (CVX) remains in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts Work! Plug into what I share and you will soon see just how profitable they are. Chevron Forecast as a Buy and remained so since early - mid 2009. Aging has its negatives and this long-term growth is likely coming to an end.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle - - But Vulnerable!
The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (CVX). In good times this conservative giant does the job quite well along with paying a decent dividend. A Reminder - - there are also Bad Times!
Chevron Corp. (CVX)
Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"
Ascending - BUT - Looking to Make a Serious Down-Side Move.
At this time (CVX) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past few years of about +25%. (that's per year - not including dividends).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.
Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:
July, 2009 @ $54.00
Performance to Date: +124%
Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Chevron Corp. - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Energy / Oil & Gas are not exceptions to the accuracy of Forecasting the future direction of their share price.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Oil & Gas Companies, the securities are definitely both strong and weak. Chevron Corp. is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, there I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (CVX) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Flat to Descending.
My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits. Shorting has also entered the picture! Hum ! ! !
Fundamentally: My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (CVX) are no where near as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving (slightly) from negative and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company for a long-term Hold. I also do a great deal of Valuation work on the Sector and Industry Group and they are not very impressive either.
Technically: Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its highs of $127 selling for $123. There is a current rally that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (CVX).
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (CVX) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Chevron Corp. (CVX)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Invest Wisely." Chevron Corp. (CVX) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(CVX): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CVX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57871088289&a=311453604
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Integrated Oil Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: CVX, XOM, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
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