Southern Company (NYSE:SO) -- Semi-Monthly Update
My logo is: "Investing Wisely."
Southern Company has had a rough 8 months. My Forecast "Warned" of this long before that the turn-down from the highs of $48. Nearly a 20% pull-back from a fine Company like Southern, destroys all the Dividend payments for years and that is NOT good asset management.
My article in October on Utilities may be of interest to you. http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Steven-Bauer-0131014-Conventional-Electricity-Industry.php
(SO) is in its second recovery rally but I have no expectations for much upside. My Forecast for Utilities is bleak. Keep in touch with me via Email, if you like.
My previous articles on SO (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting accuracy and much more.
Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Income Allocation Model Portfolios is available by clicking: Income Performance. I believe it accurately shares the rather positive results by first Forecasting and then making Investment Decisions. I hope you will agree.
This weeks study of all my High Profile Utilities / Conventional Electricity - - Indexes, Companies and ETFs offers no help other than to confirm lower prices are coming. This is a study that is important to both me and my senior / retired Clients. The reason is, in good times it produces a solid dividend. I like exploring Utes like (SO) because like with any Sector there are the good, the bad and the ugly. Each time, it supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 4.98%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
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Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Southern Company. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Southern Company and other Utility Sector Companies are no tracking the General Market and the Utilities Sector very well. Although (SO) is in a notable decline $47 to $40 it is likely only topping. The current Rally will mitigate some of this loss, but not much or enough. Be prepared to sell if it does.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle (Ended):
It "Ended" and there will be little Up-Side - - Cash is Recommended. For more information please feel free to contact me.
My Bullish Cycle produced a 74% gain from May, 2009 to December 2013. That's a 14.5% gain on top of its dividend payment.
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The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (SO). In good times this conservative giant does the job quite well along with paying a decent dividend. It's the bad or not so good times that can bite you where it hurts.
Southern Company (SO)
Forecasted Bearish "Alerts"
Descending - BUT - A rally is in the making, likely providing a better place to - Go to Cash.
At this time (SO) has begun a Bearish mode.
Forecast Bearish "Alert" -- Initiated:
December, 2013 @ $42.00
Performance to Date: n/a
Click on the Red Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Southern Company - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Accurate and Profitable Forecasting and Appropriate Highly Selective Recommendations can be performed on any Utility or Dividend paying Company. Even the ones in your portfolio!
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Electric Power Companies, the securities are currently and definitely a mixed bag. Southern Company is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore I have placed it on an Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning." My Forecast has, from 2009 until recently been "right on" and Bullish. Now, I am in one of my "Concerned" stages.
My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of taking profits. Holding-Cash will likely be my next Opinion, but I need to see much more with all the Economic Problems that are also occurring.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Valuations are improving producing future ascending projections. That's Good! Perhaps not "good" enough . . . I also focus on the Valuations for the over-all Utilities Sector and they are not doing all that well!
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): My Indicators are clearly and seriously breaking down. The pull-back since April at about $48. - current price $40. (that's nearly a 20% correction since April!) is offering strong support for my above Bearish "Warning." A re-bound rally should soon be in the making - - the strength of which will be very important as to when I will advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." Cash, even for a Long-Term find Dividend paying Company is often the most prudent investment strategy. Your study of the below "Twenty Year Perspective" might be worth your while.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (SO) !
A Twenty Year Perspective of Southern Company (SO)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Invest Wisely." Southern Company (SO) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(SO): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SO&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25351548183&a=311910176
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: SO, EXC, D, FE, NRG, AEP, AES, CNP, PPL, DUK, CPN, CMS, XEL, PCG, CIG, ETR, TE, PEG, NVE, NEE, ED, EIX, NI, POM, AEE, NU, WEC, DTE.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.
I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.
Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"