Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (NYSEARCA:SLV) -- Semi-Monthly Update w/ 5-Year Performance
Three Weeks Ago I Shared: "Silver could have a rally off of its current lows to the upside again, but caution is your first consideration. The August attempt at a rally failed and that is Bearish."
This Week's Forecast is just a bit different. There was the mini-rally "off the current low" and it will continue. I won't get excited for awhile longer because trying to buy a Commodity like Silver just off its lows is usually a very expensive investment strategy.
You may want to review my articles on SLV (just click) you will be provided with the exact history of the accuracy of my Forecasting / Formal Recommendations and much more.
Performance (my 5-Year Table) for iShares Silver Trust is available by clicking: ( SLV - Performance ) I treat this ETF just like any other Company / ETF, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.
I just completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Commodities - Silver - Indices / Mining Companies / ETFs. This is a study that always I enjoy because I have spent so much time and experience in the study of Commodities such as Silver and ETFs like (SLV). I love my work and will for many years to come.
My objective is to identify the ever-changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This week's commentary on - Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning highly selected ETFs such as iShares Silver Trust. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF and other Mining Companies are tracking Silver well. Although Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF is in a strong Down-Trend / Bearish Cycle, it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. The July to date Rally my be terminating and yet there are Bullish signals being flashed. Be Patient and stay with me. I accept Email questions from serious Investors, not Traders.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle -- Ended Mid - Late 2011:
I made Formal Recommendations to my Clients in late 2011. I had taken positions in Silver in April of 2009 and my IShares Silver Trust - ETF (SLV) appreciated by 296%. That was a nice two and one half year Hold of about 60% growth per year.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" comes from ETFs like (SLV). Silver and select other Commodities often offer much better performance than many of my Blue Chip / Bellwether Companies and ETFs. If you are interested in very low and conservative guidance and direction - and - superior performance with your portfolio you might want to visits with me by Email.
Current Forecasted Performance - - - Bearish Cycle -- Beginning - Late 2011:
The below Table is for your review, study, questions and perhaps thoughts.
Special Note: In this article on Silver I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Silver securities during the above Bullish Cycle ( April 2009 through August 2011 ) and am now working in and with the current Bearish Cycle.
I do not share with the Investing Publseekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer/instablog/symbol/slvic my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."
However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.
IShares Silver Trust - ETF (SLV)
Forecasted Bearish "Warnings"
Descending - BUT - a rally is in the making. Prudence however, is your wise choice.
At this time (SLV) remains in a Bearish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past couple years of about +23%. (that's per year - not including dividends if any).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bullish "Alerts."
Forecast Bearish "Alert" -- Initiated:
August, 2011 @ $41.00
Performance for this Bearish Cycle to Date: +46%
Click on the Red Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on iShares Silver Trust - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
My Commodity Forecasting has for several decades been deadly accurate. Excellent Profits with Low Risk.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is not as bright and shiny as you might wish!
There are many, what I call "irresponsible" articles being written on precious metals that are grossly misleading. An example would be, I just read an article saying: "Silver will be going to $100 very soon." If you like that kind of advice, I doubt you will like what I share each and every day in SeekingAlpha.com and other Financial Blogs. (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Mining Companies - or - Silver / ETFs, the securities are currently not a pretty picture. Prudent investing just does not support ownership at this time. Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF is currently very weak Technically and I have reservations about my very weak Fundamental Valuations. I placed it on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning." That was way back in mid 2011. Not Bad - Forecasting (don't you think)?
My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of a Bottom which at this stage cannot be Forecast. As far as it reaching "$100 soon" - - I strongly suggest that much will have to take place before that objective can even get started or be realized. I will keep you posted on my "Opinion" and I believe you will be well pleased.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of most all of the Silver Mining Companies (SLV) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
Technically ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine ETF, my Indicators have broken down and are possible on the mend. (SLV) is only currently slightly off of its declining highs of $24 selling for $19+. This is a time frame that you will want to - - stay tuned.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (SLV) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV) and Silver Spot Price has taken some big hits over the years. The entire period of 1980 through 2001 Gold was in a declining posture. That means, you lost money if you held Gold for over 20 years. It is no different for Silver or any other security. That is why I have such a disciplined Investment Methodology.
URL for (20-years of Silver - Spot Price and a bit less for - (SLV): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07896351310&a=310617222
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the component ETF / Peers in the Silver realm that I focus on rather frequently: SLV, AGQ, SLVP, SLVR, USLV, ZSL, DBS, DSLV, USV.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions). Just so you know you will have access to over 600 articles where I share my Analytics. In addition I have recently published all 500 of the S&P 500 Large-Cap component Companies. And, 200 of each of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap and S&P 600 Small-Cap component Companies. I stay quite busy doing my homework for my Clients.
I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.
Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"