Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) -- Semi-Monthly Update w/ 5-Year Performance
Apple, Inc. is doing what it likes to do, suck in investors prior to its next pull-back. The next Forecast Pull-Back won't be for awhile so my advice to Investors is to do what you will to do but be "Warned." My short-term Forecast is not for a big pull-back but for further topping in this rally.
You may want to review my articles on AAPL (just click) you will be provided with the exact history of the accuracy of my Forecasting / Formal Recommendations and much more.
Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Apple, Inc. is available by clicking: (AAPL). I treat Apple just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.
My weekly study of all my High Profile Technology / Hardware - says that this Apple is not as juicy as in the past. My weekly studies are fun for me and Apple, Inc. is or was the "Darling of Wall Street" and will be said to have been one of the leaders of the coming Bear Market. I am please to have called the high in late summer of 2012. I have spent so much time and experience in the study of Companies like (AAPL).
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.20%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
This Bi-Monthly Commentary on - Apple, Inc. (AAPL) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
Please connect with "My Focus Article." Just Click: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2057252-my-focus-article
Important: Please Click and Read the following URL - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2134782-supportive-information-for-my-bi-monthly-update-articles
Income & Growth Investors
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Apple, Inc. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Apple, Inc. and quite a number of other Technology Sector Companies are still not tracking well with the General Market. Although (AAPL) remains in a meaningful Pull-Back, (current rally accepted) however it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle - Terminated in Mid - Late 2011:
I initiated positions in Apple, Inc. in March 2009 @ $83. I took my Clients to Cash in November 2012 @ $565. and made select Short-Sell recommendations to specific Clients. That is a gain of 581% in Three and one half years (3.5 yrs.) and 166% average per year.
At that time I also offered this Warning repeatedly: (AAPL) is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.
The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" comes from like (AAPL). Over the years Apple, Inc. has been able to offer much better performance than many of my Blue Chip / Bellwether Companies and ETFs. There are a large number of Pazazz Companies in my stable and they all are outperforming Apple. If you are interested in very low and conservative guidance and direction - and - superior performance with your portfolio you might want to visits with me by Email.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bearish Cycle -- Beginning - Late 2012:
The below Table is also for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts.
Special Note: In this article on Apple, Inc. I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Apple, Inc. during the above Bullish Cycle and am now working in and with the below Bearish Cycle.
I do not share with the Investing Public my seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer/instablog/symbol/aaplShort Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."
However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.
Apple, Inc. (AAPL)
Forecasted Bearish "Alerts"
Descending - I KNOW - APPL is UP 200 points from its Lows. That May Well Be Meaningless. . .
At this time (AAPL) remains in a Bearish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past year of about +6%. (that's per year - not including dividends if any).
I am a long ways away from recommending Apple, Inc. as a Buy. Time will take care of that and you will just have to remain patient.
Forecast Bearish "Alert" -- Initiated:
August, 2011 @ $565.00
Performance for this Bearish Cycle to Date: +7%
Click on the Red (descending) Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Apple - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
All Growth and Income like Companies like Apple, Inc. operate, that is move the in a similar manner. It is just a matter of monitoring or forecasting to identify the right ones for the right time frame. I Do That Very Well!
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Technology Companies, the securities are (as always) both strong and weak. Apple, Inc. is currently weak with nothing from my approach to Forecasting to support Buying or Owning it for the foreseeable future. My Fundamental Valuation is less than positive compared to years past. There I have placed it on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (AAPL) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are improving from being negative but are not impressive.
My Opinion is to HOLD-CASH and not participate in all the hoop-law that is presented so freely, these days. If it is to regain prominence in the coming months, believe me I will be ready to turn bullish again. Until then . . .
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in my being profitable in managing money "wisely." At this time my Valuations of (AAPL) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. I also expect Revenue Growth to start on a Decline. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are continuing to suggest topping and then sideways to down. It is seriously off its highs of $684. selling for $575. The current rally is well in place but I do not expect it to move a lot higher before turning Sideways to Down again. This rally and the impending pull-back will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (AAPL).
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (AAPL) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Apple, Inc. (AAPL)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Apple, Inc. (AAPL) has taken some big hits over the years. Have a look.
URL for (20-years of -(AAPL): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91377749790&a=300758175
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline & Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Technology Hardware Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: AAPL, EMC, NTAP, DELL, HPQ, DDD, FIO, WDC, SGI, SSYS, STX, SMT, AUO, NCR.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
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Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"