Caterpillar, Inc. (NYSE:CAT) -- Semi-Monthly Update
Caterpillar remains looking humble, now since early 2012. After completing my weekly study of all my High Profile Industrial / Heavy Equipment Companies. (CAT) looks like it is heading lower over the coming months after this current and rather pathetic recovering rally.
My previous articles on CAT (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy.
My Performance for Caterpillar can be found below and is well over 13 % per year for the last 5 years.
Remember the primary trend is down! Remember the axiom - - "don't buck the trend? This is a study that is of particular interest to me because I have spent so much time and experience in the study of excellent Companies like (CAT). Visiting with old friend a couple times per month or more is fun.
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.64%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
This Semi-Monthly Commentary on - Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
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My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Caterpillar. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Caterpillar, Inc. and other Industrial Sector Companies that are technically weak are tracking well. Although (CAT) has been in Down-Trend since early 2012 it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. You might remember, prior to - or just after the Turn-Down - it LEAD the entire Dow 30 Industrials as the number one performer for a very long time. ( I hope you get my point! )
Forecasted ( Past ) Performance - - - Bullish Cycle Terminated in April 2012:
From April 2009 through April 2012 Caterpillar moved from about $20 per share to $104 per share. My Forecast back then caught this move of over 420%. That is a profit of 140% for each of the three years.
Like all Companies in good times it does the job quite well along with paying a decent dividend. Investors don't seem to give much thought to the fact that there are also - bad times.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bearish Cycle is Still in Effect:
The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Pazazz Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog.
Typically, "Pazazz Performance" does not come from Companies like (CAT). A contradiction ( and repeat of the above ) of the previous sentence is worth mentioning. From 2009 through 2011 Caterpillar moved from about $20 per share to $104 per share. My Forecast back then caught this move of over 420%. That is a profit of 140% for each of the three years.
Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)
Forecasted Bearish "Warnings"
Descending - AND - Topping.
At this time (CAT) remains in my Forecasted Bearish mode and has produced an annualized (Bearish) profit - over the past year or so of about + 13%. (that's per year - not including dividends).
It, is continuing to give -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly if you are holding long positions.
Forecast Bearish "Warning" -- Initiated:
April, 2012 @ $102.00
Performance to Date: minus +18%
Click on the Red Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Caterpillar, Inc. - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Bullish or Bearish, if you are seeking consistent annual profits from conservative Companies like Caterpillar you had better consider following my Forecasting Methodology. Just re-read this table for my accuracy on Caterpillar.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast back in early 2012 was not and it presently is not currently as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Industrial Companies, the securities are definitely both strong and weak, I often call it a typical mixed bag of those to hold and those to remove from your portfolio. Caterpillar, Inc. is currently not all that weak but certainly is not strong Technically. I have reservations about my projected Fundamental Valuations, there I have placed it on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning." That means, if you own it, take profits on this or any current rally. (I can help if you want).
My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH for the foreseeable future.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting - - 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (CAT) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are continuing and notably breaking down. It is currently selling for $91. This current General Market rally is in place and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (CAT). So far, Caterpillar has not participated and that is definitely not impressive?
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (CAT) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework in the quest of helping you to be a consistently profitable investor. Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) has taken some big hits over the years. You might want to take a few minutes to view this URL. You should definitely get a perspective and that is an important part of making money in the stock market.
URL for (20-years of -(CAT): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CAT&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31500825899&a=304969448
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Heavy Machinery Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: CAT, DE, MTW, JOY, TEX, HEES, ASTE.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
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