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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • It's Tuesday -- ( Forecasting The U.S. Stock Market ) – December 31st. 0 comments
    Dec 31, 2013 10:00 AM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA

    It's Tuesday -- ( Forecasting the U.S. Stock Market ) - December 31st.

    My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    Accurately Forecasting of any Indice, (Dow - 30 / S&P 500 / Nasdaq, Etc.) Index or Security for me is a daily routine that I have maintained for well over 50 years. I spend the majority of my research / analytics time Forecasting. The reasons are simple: a) it gives me a lead-time (often several weeks or more) to refine or fine-tune those Candidates for Buying (C4Bs) - or - Candidates for Shorting (C4Ss); b) it provides very clear prospective of where the General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups are going from this point foreword, in other words the "Big Picture;" c) it offers very accurate "Comparative Analytics" of What Companies or ETFs currently have the highest prospect to profit.

    Yes, it is a process that I cannot do with out - - (perhaps for YOU TOO!) and indeed is analytic tool that greatly enhances each transaction's performance by at least 10% and often more.

    - - -

    The Most Critical Element of Your Consistently Being Profitable is:

    Unfortunately Reality seems to have faded badly with many Investors over the past decade or so.

    During this time, and since my retirement my annual profitability has increased markedly. The probability for Profit when I Formally Recommend a Company or ETF to my Clients is well above 90%. My individual transactions have all been over 20% more recently. This includes Utilities, High Dividend Paying Companies and my Growth and Aggressive Growth Recommendations.

    Please click on Reality for a brief article on Reality.

    Here is Some of My Wisdom on "Reality" that I Profit From

    The Stock Market can only be profitable if we are well tuned to the Perceptions of Investors - (POI) Indicator. Paradigms are what they are, and are only changeable when an opposite or perhaps negative event within the Stock Market is both abundantly clear and strong enough. Even then Investors tend to hold on to their "paradigms" until death. As an Investor, you might want to start pondering - - that all other Investors are going to believe what they believe - - - that is - until "Reality" finally sets in - - if ever.

    I suggest that the problem that nearly all Investors have is two fold: a) that when a Bull Market is confirmed most Investors, start buying late and keep hoping all the way and then back down. Taking profits is not something they do well; b) that after a Bear Market is confirmed most Investors keep holding and hoping all the way down.

    The Marketplace is currently in Bullish Market Cycle, as in all Bullish Market-Cycles, few investors will psychologically be able to unload their holdings (take profits) when a new Bear Market begins again. It is and always will be that way. In my articles, I am trying to help you fix that incorrect paradigm!

    Facts - or - "Reality" - - For Me it is BOTH!

    The FACT is that today's U. S. Stock Market is: a) Over-Valued (P/E divided by Inflation adjusted Earnings); b) Over-Bought (Above its Mean); Overly-Bullish (Sentiment), with Interest Rates on the Rise (Measured with reference to Calendar Quarters); c) Over-Exuberance (Judgmental at Best). This identical condition has been a common characteristic for most every significant market peak throughout the history of the Market itself.

    - - -

    Featured Thought for the Week: My "Bias"

    The "Primary Bias" is and has been for quite some time, DOWN! I often use the word "BIAS" in my working lists and notes, because it is for me a more accurate word than the "Trend." The General Market - ALWAYS - has a Bias. Eventually a Bias can become a Trend but - NEVER - does a Trend turn into a Bias.

    This last sentence is what separates my Analytics from all others. The English is different from what you so often read. The "English" clearly has a Leading Tone and that is Very Important to your Annual Profitability.

    Trends can be anything the Analyst / Investor wants them to be and I believe is a very mis-used term. Drawing lines on Charts is at best 60% accurate, as to identifying future price movement. Sixty-percent is an "F" grade when I was a professor of finance and economics. I suggest that it (Trends) often offers much mis-guidance by so many financial authors, bloggers and the media - - that grossly mis-use the word "trend."

    You might ask how the "Bias" can be down with the General Market UP and often making new highs? This is yet another dimension of my work / analytics is very different from the "HERD." I have very accurate Primary Indicators that are supported by my Secondary Indicators that I use almost daily to confirm or reject the - all important - "Bias."

    I am happy to answer your questions - IF ! You are a serious Investor and would be willing to retain my professional guidance and direction for your portfolios.

    Otherwise, You will just have to follow my articles and note the performance that comes from tools like Forecasting and Bias. My articles are intended to share just how accurate and profitable my Methodology for "Investing Wisely" - is.

    You might also Email me with your questions and thoughts.

    At this time and for me there is clearly, not yet, any new Indice Bearish Trend to follow. Sorry, I do use the word "Trend" from time to time.

    So be it a "Trend" or my "Bias - - my Forecasting is ALWAYS LEADING and AHEAD OF - - the Market, the Sectors, the Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs. It is an ANTICIPATORY matrix that gives me Bullish (Buying) "Alerts" and Bearish (Selling and Short-Selling) "Warnings" long ahead of the actual change of direction of the security or what I call an "Inflection Point."

    In my Forecasting - I primarily work (do my analytics) with Cycles. Not one of the many approaches (many people call them "Systems") you read about offers even a reasonable Probability for Profit. "Reasonable" for me is: each of my Formal Recommendations has been profitable to the level of well over 90% - - (in the past two years it is 100%) that is just a part of my current and 50+ year historic performance.

    I often read that this or that Indicator or that System is 60% accurate. Repeating: When I was a professor of Finance and Economics, if my student was only 60% accurate he or she received an "F" grade. I often wonder why so many Analysts and Investors will invest with such a low probability of profits and accept being "F" Analysts / Investors.

    "A's" are available to you but you have to do your homework to earn such a high grade in your pursuit of profits for your portfolio.

    So what is it that I do that is so different from my peer Financial Analysts / Asset Managers? In my doctoral studies we studied everything you can find in all the text-books with the exception of Cycle Analysis. My nature is to explore so, Cycle Analysis was easily my choice for my doctoral thesis. It made sense at the time for me and continues to both make sense and produces superior profits today. Even in today's world there is little written about Cycles. And what I do find to read about Cycles, does not make much sense to me! They, technicians, chartists and many others have been going down a very different path than I have for decades.

    By the Way: Seasonal Cycles, ( Christmas, Summer, Etc. ) for me are on the level of a joke with much laughter and hee-haw. They Just Don't Work! A simple and supportive article on My SHB Cycle Analysis can be viewed by Clicking on this URL.

    My 50+ year and present Methodology are more sensitive to measures of risk-premiums and default risk than my pre-retirement management were - - By Necessity. The Market Has Changed - - Folks!

    I am not telling you when this speculative and euphoric Bull Market will end but I can easily say, when it does, my Analytics will be "On the Button" once again.

    - - -

    The General U.S. Stock Market

    The General Market is UP and within my Near-Term and Short-Term Forecasts - - (please see below). The Marketplace will likely continue to see-saw Up and Down for a while longer into 2014 while continuing to make a definitive TOP.

    At this time I am primarily holding very few Securities - Long and am Holding-Cash (quite a lot !!!) in anticipation of a Bearish Inflection Point. The securities being held have not yet broken to the downside so I just Hold until they do - - Oh Yes they will "break to the downside" it is only a matter of time.

    I am definitely NOT Buying. I am focused on a Bullish Topping that will be followed with a new Bearish Inflection Point or if you prefer a new / meaningful Bearish (Primary) Cycle and perhaps another monster Bear Market. Please consider reading my article on: My Long-Term Performance Record back to 1957.

    Forecasting the Near and Short Term of the General Market

    For the Near-Term: ( one day to thirty days ) A mini or bounce rally has been in place for a short time and will be soon terminating.

    The coming days, as always, will be a very fun time for me to once again "fully test" my 50+ year Methodology of "Investing Wisely." There is currently - what I call a "Dance - - Up and Down at the Top" for awhile longer.

    For the Short-Term: ( one month to three months ) Topping is long over-due but there can be no Bearish Forecast made for the Short-Term until the Near-Term starts flashing appropriate signals. That is Forecasted and Coming but first there will be "More Topping." - stay tuned.

    The Bulls are very close to running out of their "euphoric exuberance" in their attempts to move the General Market UP even higher. There has been very little convincing evidence (Economically or Fundamentally) that the current rally or even future rallies will be sustained. That is a clear "Warning" that you might consider.

    Tapering is both in the wind and has pathetically now been announced. This "tapering" thing will be played with (as usual) by Washington for the foreseeable months ahead. It is and will be very mis-leading.

    Your problem or perhaps I should say - - the Investor's problem is that there are notable numbers of Companies taking major hits on the downside nearly every day. I keep a weekly record of these Companies and the list is getting longer and longer. This is the subtle way of the Marketplace and only excellent Technical Analysis can help YOU prevent major losses. There are already many "major losses" with many Companies and ETFs. Those losses could have been prevented by following my Forecasting and professional guidance.

    Another Fact or Reality: My Articles have provided Warnings, you might want to read my past articles on Apple, Inc. Few, Investors that I have had contact will have the Technical Tools to deal with this kind of "Loss Prevention." In addition, my articles on Gold and Silver are very excellent support for the accuracy of my Forecasting.

    If you are interested in my work you will have to read my daily articles for a time and then please feel free to ask me questions about my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."

    These URLs will take you to my most current articles and you can then go back to my archive for any of the Companies I write about to check me out for accuracy.

    SPY, QQQ, DIA, AAPL, ABX, AMZN, BAC, C, CAT, CSCO, CVX, D, DIS, F, FB, GE, GG, GOOG, HPQ, IBM, INTC, JNJ, JPM, KO, MSFT, PAAS, PFE, SBUX, SLW, SO, T, VZ, WMT, XOM, GLD, SLV, UCO.

    To view the whole list ( 1,900+ articles ) please use:

    http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer/instablog/full_index

    For you folks at SeekingAlpha.com - - You Might Like More General Market ( Forecast ) Updates to follow - at least a couple more per week. If so - You might want to visit my Personal Blog: > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    Stay tuned - my "stuff" is very accurate . . .

    Let me know if I can help. My Email Address: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,

    Dr. Steve

    - - -

    Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA
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