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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Sectors - - Supporting Analytics And Performance Table For My U.S. General Market - - Sector - - Articles - - - January 1st: 0 comments
    Jan 1, 2014 9:37 AM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA

    Sectors - - Supporting Analytics and Performance Table for My U.S. General Market - - Sector - - Articles - - - January 1st:

    My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    The below graphic is simple and what you must understand - - IF - - You want to consistently be a profitable Investor.

    My below Table lists my select U.S. General Market - - Sectors which is a rather broad breakdown and perspective of the General Stock Market and Indices.

    In this Table, I share my current Forecasts and Opinions and Performance - - Updated at least Semi-Monthly. My focus is only on my ten (10) Sectors. There are other Sectors that I use for confirmation and "sub-groups" for each Sector and they are my select 350+ Industry Groups.

    I write a weekly article for a new Industry Group in Doug Short's - Advisor Perspectives blog. It is one of the very finest and elite financial blogs in cyber-space. There are quite a number of excellent financial authors. I recommend you tune into his Blog.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/

    On going Analytics (research) with Sector / Industry Group is pretty much the same as for Commodities / ETFs or Individual Companies. My focus is fundamentals and support from my unique technical analytics.

    My Methodology is primarily used to identify the current most Favorable, Companies and ETFs for Formal Recommendations during Bullish Time Frames as well as the current most Un-Favorable, Companies and ETFs during Bearish Time Frames. This is how I maintain a very conservative and low-risk approach to managing assets. During periods of uncertainty I - - Formally Recommend to my Clients to HOLD-CASH.

    I believe that, Cash is often a wise choice that many Investors seem to ignore. Holding Cash through periods of uncertainty has improved my annual performance by at least ten percent - (10% or More), each and every year - - over 50 of those years now! ( I hope you will want to get acquainted and further learn about how go about "Investing Wisely." )

    Table of 10 Select Sectors:

    Each Sector listed below has a number of both currently Favorable and Un-Favorable Industry Groups and component Companies / ETFs that are listed on the U.S. Exchanges such as the New York and the Nasdaq. There are also, Inverse ETFs for each Sector and some of my Industry Groups.

    To Keep-Up with my Most Favorable (Currently) and Most Un-Favorable (Currently) - Please Consider Becoming Familiar with my Personal Blog.

    URL: http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    Table:

    My Universe of Ten Sectors - with Symbol, Name and Forecast / Current Opinion & Performance

    Flagging for your attention: Basic Materials / Utilities

    Symbol

    Name of Sector w/ Select ETFs

    Current Forecast / Current Opinion & Performance of Forecasts and Client Recommendations

     

    $DJUSBM

    Basic Materials

    ETFs:

    XLB & UYM

    Have a look at: $BPDISC - it remains Bullish.

    Basic Materials is notable Under-Performing other Sectors. That's for the Longer-Term.

    Performance: My Initial Bullish Forecast - - June 2009 @ $165. -- I Posted my Bearish Forecast in 2011 and Moved to CASH - - July 2011 @ $329. Sector Gain for that Time-Frame: 99%

    I am again Currently on an : Strong Bullish "Alert" / HOLDING - - Highly Selective Securities - for now.

    Performance: My Initial Bullish Forecast - - November 2012 @ $260. -- Currently Maintaining My Forecast - - @ $317. - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 20%

     

    $DJUSCY

    Consumer Services

    ETFs:

    XLP & UGE

    Have a look at: $BPDISC - its turned Bearish.

    Consumer Services continues to Perform Well.

    I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - for now.

    Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $214. -- Currently Maintaining My Forecast - - @ $598. - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 175%

     

    $DJUSEN

    Energy - - Oil & Gas

    ETFs:

    XLE & DIG

    Have a look at: $BPENER - its turned Bearish.

    Energy - - Oil & Gas continues to Perform Well. However, Cautions is Warranted.

    I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - for now.

    Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $405 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $728 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date : 79%

     

    $DJUSFN

    Financials

    ETFs:

    XLF & UYG

    Have a look at: $BPFINA - its turned Bearish.

    Financials continues to Perform Well.

    I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - for now.

    Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $205 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $389 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 88%

     

    $DJUSHC

    Health Care

    ETFs:

    XLV & RXL

    Have a look at: $BPHEAL - its turned Bearish.

    Health Care continues to Perform Well.

    I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - for now.

    Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $268 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $579 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 110%

     

    $DJUSIN

    Industrials

    ETFs:

    XLI & UXI

    Have a look at: $BPINDY - it remains Bullish.

    Industrials continues to Perform Well.

    I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - for now.

    Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $195 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $470 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 136%

     

    $DJUSIT

    Transportation

    ETFs: XTN

    Have a look at: $BPTRAN - it remains Bullish.

    Transportation continues to Perform Well.

    I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - for now.

    Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $283 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $677 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 132%

     

    $DJUSRT

    Retail / Consumer Staples

    ETFs:

    XRT & UCC

    Have a look at: $BPSTAP - its turned Bearish.

    Retail continues to Perform Well.

    I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - for now.

    Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $270 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $649 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 139%

     

    $DJUSTC

    Technology

    ETFs:

    XLK & ROM

    Have a look at: $BPINFO - it remains Bullish.

    Technology continues to Perform Well.

    I am Currently on an : Initial Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING - Highly Selective Positions - for now.

    Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - July 2009 @ $430 -- Currently Maintaining Forecast - - @ $884 - - Sector Profit Percent to Date for this Current Time-Frame : 101%

     

    $DJUSUT

    Utilities

    ETFs:

    XLU & UPW

    Have a look at: $BPUTIL - its turned Bearish.

    Utilities has more recently begun to Under-Perform.

    I am Currently on an : Strong Bearish "Warning" / HOLDING-CASH - for now.

    Performance: Initiated Bullish Forecast - - January 2010 @ $140 -- Moved to CASH - - October 2013 @ $193 - - Sector Profit for this Current Time-Frame: 38%

     

    Notes for Table: ( A Must Read - - if you are interested in how I go about making money in the Stock Market for myself and my Clients )

    The Symbol and Name is simple what Sectors I use to keep my Analytics and Perspective both current and accurate. (Symbols are those necessary to use StockCharts.com)

    The Forecast and Opinion: For Public Publication I have four ( 4 ) designations. Each are Dynamic, meaning they are in transition and often illusive to the Public Investor.

    Forecast:

    In my Analytics - - I note if - "they" are: a) Going-Up perhaps further -Strong Bullish "Alert" - or - b) Anticipating their Going-Up after "Bottoming" more - Initial Bullish "Alert" - or - c) Coming-Down perhaps further - Strong Bearish "Warning" - or - d) Anticipating their after Coming-Down after "Topping" more - Initial Bearish "Warning."

    * Initial Bullish "Alert" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I am sufficiently convinced that the security will become a Buy or a Cover at some reasonable (in weeks) future date.

    * Strong Bullish "Alert" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I either own - or - would consider owning this security, if at a future date it met my very stringent "Confirmation" criterion.

    * Initial Bearish "Warning" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I am sufficiently convinced that the security will become a Sell or a Short at some reasonable (in weeks) future date.

    * Strong Bearish "Warning" : This Opinion tells you that at this time, I either HOLD-CASH - or - would consider shorting this security, if at a future date it met my very stringent "Confirmation" criterion.

    Opinion:

    ** HOLD : My Opinion is most often to Hold the security for Now. That means I believe that you will benefit for at least the Near-Term (1 - 20 trading days or more). It definitely does not mean I would relax, especially if my Forecast is Bearish.

    ** HOLD-CASH : I typically Hold-Cash after terminating a security from my or my Client's Portfolio. I strongly suggest that Holding-Cash is one of the most prudent strategies of "Investing Wisely." Remember CASH gives you Buying-Power for the next Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point or Cycle.

    Performance:

    In my Analytics, Forecasting is the first step prior to making Formal Recommendations to my Clients. The above performance is for you to hopefully encourage you to want to know more about my General Market / Sector / Industry Group Forecasting and how that leads me to the specific Companies and ETFs I recommend.

    What is my "Confirmation" Procedure and Why does it Work?

    It is a very precise way to do what I call a "Reality Check" during the time frames that I am Holding-Cash and just prior to Buying / Selling - or - Shorting / Covering. It is a Procedure that I have developed for running a multi-point check of many Fundamentals and Technicals that have consistently provided Profits for over 50 years.

    - - -

    At this point, my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" gets much more complex. Working with any of the above four Opinions a very clear and precise Forecast is then developed and noted on my Asset Management Lists. I have just two Lists one for Bull Market Buying and one for Bear Market Shorting.

    From my Forecast I can - - for any given security - - I project the probability of profit as well as an accurate percent profit projection - for each security. That is a big file of notes for possible future investments.

    In order to make a Formal Recommendation of a specific security to my Clients I must have a "probability of profit" of over 90% and a "percent profit projection" of over 20%. This criterion produces consistent and meaningful annual profits. Clearly, those "files" are whittled down to a Select and well honed group of Candidates for Buying (C4Bs) and Candidates for Shorting (C4Ss). It requires a great deal of "Know How" / Time / both Discipline and Patience. (Do you have those investing ingredients going for you?)

    At Bullish or Bearish Inflection Points there are always an ample number of securities that meet the above criterion. Yes, my old lists have become worthless because the Companies and ETFs - - Rotate or Cycle in an out of Favor - over time. That is why I work daily on my Asset Management Lists for future Buying and Shorting.

    My Buy List or my Shorting List may or may not come from the above Global (Country) Market Indexes. And, you should know that I primarily focus on the U.S. Market because there is typically much more "raw material" to work with.

    Concluding Note: More information and data available upon Email request. Please ask specific questions so I can meet you need for understanding my Methodology for "Investing Wisely."

    Forecasts for Consistent Annual Profits

    For me and for over 50 years of managing other people's money - It all begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures. Then it requires Well Honed Fundamental - Valuations, Technical (Unique) Analysis and Consensus Opinion Conformations. It ends with three things: a) Bullish or Bearish or Hold-Cash Recommendations; b) an indisputable and clear Hold / Exit Strategy; c) Profitable Results. ( F / C = PR ).

    Forecasting the Market, then the Sectors, then the Industry Groups, then the Companies and then perhaps the ETFs in critical to the above and consistently enjoying an annual, very profitable bottom line. Don't forget the Commodities, they can be VERY profitalble.

    Forecasting is also the essential first step of logging in my Asset Management Notes those Bullish and Favorable securities as well as those Bearish and Un-Favorable securities. The securities in-between Favorable and Un-Favorable will perhaps surface in a future time frame. I don't worry about those Companies and that makes my jobs so very much easier.

    At Bullish Inflection Points (the beginning or continuance of a Bullish Cycle) - or - at Bearish Inflection Points ( the beginning or countenance of a Bearish Cycle) my Forecasting is always in place. Yes, I definitely "Cherry Pick."

    Please "Think About" my so emphatically sharing the importance of Forecasting - Won't You?

    Let's Focus on Investing in ETFs - Applicable for Some of these Sectors and Industry Groups

    ETFs are a strange breed and an Investment security that you should understand very well before you invest your money. Some purportedly track or are in Sync with their Indice, Sector or Industry Group they are supposed to represent. Many do that job very well, but many do not! (Just a few words of Caution).

    ETFs are similar to Mutual Funds in that they are managed by Securities Firms. My personal opinion is that - the skill, and expertise of the Asset Manager(s) is very often questionable, again from my perspective. Remember, they often diversify WAY beyond being reasonable boundaries because of three primary reasons. a) They often have WAY too much money to manage and cannot solely focus on the top tier or 10% of those Companies that are current "Favorable." This greatly mitigates their performance. b) They totally impersonal and have no clue as to your investment/financial needs, goals and objectives. They just do their best and that is not good enough for me. c) They NEVER take their portfolios to CASH. That is just plain Stupid!

    Some ETFs are supposed to be one-on-one and others are leveraged. That too is a consideration before investing your money.

    With a Smile

    Suffice it to say: When Investing in ETFs" like any other security, Be Ware / Be Prepared / Be Patient and Be Disciplined with your Investment Decisions - and - let Forecasting lead you consistent annual profits.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA
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