Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) -- Semi-Monthly Update
Wal-Mart has been leading the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies for a long time. It is on a Strong Hold but my Indicators are breaking down. It made new highs in early December and has pulled back since. I Forecasted a mini-rally in the near-term and believe that will be quite tale-tail as to its future direction. This is why I have HELD and why Patience is worth the effort.
My previous articles on WMT (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting accuracy and much more.
Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Income Allocation Model Portfolios is available by clicking: Income Performance. I believe it accurately shares the rather positive results by first Forecasting and then making Investment Decisions. I hope you will agree.
My weekly study of all my High Profile Consumer Services / Food / Discount Stores is complete with smiles. This is a study that is of particular interest to me because I have spent so much time and experience in the study of Companies like (WMT).
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield for (WMT): 2.39%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Wal-Mart. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
- - -
Forecast, Opinion & Results -- from my 50+ Years of Work / Analytics:
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and other Retailing Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (WMT) has been in Up-Trend for since 2009 it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. Forecasting provides an insight and often good lead time as to making investment decisions. Right now is one of those times to get serious about whether or not to sell or hold.
Forecast w/ Performance:
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)
Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"
Ascending - BUT - I am NOT all the Bullish for much further UpSide.
My aging Forecast for (WMT) began in April 2009 and remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past few years of about +14%. (that's per year - not including dividends).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.
Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:
April, 2009 @ $45.00
Performance to Date: +69%
Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Accurate Forecasting "LEADS" to profitable investing. Try it with me!
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is that Wal-Mart is that it is Topping and not as brilliant as it was just a year ago! This has to do with the state of the General Market and that is also not as 'bright as you may think." Please study my 20 year chart offered below - - when the General Market is Bearish so is (WMT) !
If you own or are considering owning Big Retailing Companies, the securities have definitely become a mixed bag of both good and not so good. Wal-Mart is relatively strong both Fundamentally and Technically, however, I have placed it on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits. Taking profits can be effectively accomplished, just as Buying can by doing your Forecasting well. When there is a "Big Blow-to the downside" for the General Market Forecast (in the wind), as a very experienced financial advisor and asset manager, I will always seek a safe harbor and that for me is Cash. I hope you are of such a mind-set too.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (WMT) are quite positive but that in and of itself does not mitigate caution.
Technically - ( weighting - 35%): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its November highs of $81 (eight months of moving sideways - from $79 that's not a good sign in a Market like what we have experienced!). It is now selling for $78. Like so many Companies, we are presently in a rally and it will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (WMT).
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (WMT) !
- - -
A Twenty Year Perspective of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(WMT): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMT&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18736113138&a=312039540
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Food / Discount Store Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: WMT, SVU, SWY, TGT, KR, WFM, CBD, TJX, DG, COST, ROST, FDO, DLTR, SHLD, BIG.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions).
I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.
Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"