Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) -- Semi-Monthly Update w/ 5-Year Performance
I just can't get off of one of my "toots." The one on Gold is simple because I just keep reading and reading unwanted and grossly exaggerated articles about Gold being ready to Buy again - for "Huge Gains." Rather than share my, likely "unwanted" thoughts about this kind of advice - - I will just say: loud and clear - - IT IS NOT YET A BUY !
It could be in the foreseeable future but I strongly recommend that you continue to HOLD-CASH.
Last week it bounced off of LOWs for a rally that will likely continue for a time.
You may want to review my articles on GLD (just click) you will be provided with the exact history of the accuracy of my Forecasting / Formal Recommendations and much more.
Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Gold Trust Shares - SPDR - ETF is available by clicking: (GLD) I treat GOLD and Gold Mining Companies just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.
My Weekly study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Gold - Indices / Mining Companies / ETFs is in the books, meaning documented in my on going notes. I like to use my tools to read the probable direction of Gold, Precious Metals and Metals and Mining. That's because of the above remarks that there is so much CHAFF and Very Little WHEAT being published that I like how my many, many years of gaining experience in the study of Gold and ETFs like (GLD) - - - has paid off so well. I love this work and it is why I continue while in retirement.
My objective is to identify the ever-changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This week's commentary on - Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (GLD) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Gold ETFs. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF and other Mining Companies are tracking the Commodity Gold Indexes very well. Although Gold and Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF is in a strong Pull-Back it is and always has been an excellent contributor to my Commodities Analytics and Forecasting.
Forecasted Performance - - - Bullish Cycle -- Ended Mid - Late 2011:
I made Formal Sell Recommendations to my Clients in late 2011. I had taken positions in Gold in April of 2009 @ $87. and my Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (GLD) appreciated to $170 in October 2011 by 95%. That was a nice two and one have year Hold of about 38% growth per year. Silver was almost a double of Gold's performance.
Forecasted w/ Performance - - - Bearish Cycle -- Beginning - Late 2011 -- to Date:
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
Special Note: In this article on Gold I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Gold securities during the above Bullish Cycle and am now working in and with the below Bearish Cycle.
I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."
However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.
The below Table is also for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts.
SPDR Gold Trust Shares - ETF (GLD)
Forecasted Bearish "Alerts"
Descending - AND - Yes, another rally is the making for this ETF and even Gold - Spot Price, but I must advise Holding Cash for at least awhile longer.
At this time (GLD) remains in a Bearish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past couple years of about +14%. (that's per year - not including dividends if any).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bullish "Alerts."
Forecast Bearish "Alert" -- Initiated:
October, 2011 @ $181
Performance for this Bearish Cycle to Date: +25%
Click on the Red Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on SPDR Gold Trust Shares - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
It is all a function of doing your homework well. I do!
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast for Gold is not and has not been as bright as you may be lead to think by a large number of blogging sources! Hum . . .
If you own or are considering owning Mining Companies - or - Gold / ETFs, the securities are currently not a pretty picture. Prudent investing just does not support ownership at this time. Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF is currently very weak Technically and I have reservations about my very weak Fundamental Valuations. I placed it on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning." That was way back in late 2011.
My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of a Bottom which at this stage cannot be Forecast - - other than to say - - there is a Possibility of a Bottom in the making. I said: "Possibility."
Fundamentals - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuations (of each Mining Company) plays a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (GLD) (Mining Companies) are not as positive as perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Descending.
Technically -( weighting - - 35% ): My Technical work / analytics is both unique and profitable. The current rally is fading for the near-term, so don't get Greedy! (GLG) is currently selling for: $119. - - down a BUNCH from the Highs of $189 in2011.
It peaked at $184. and so far has fallen to a low of $118. That is a lose of over 30%. And very Unacceptable Asset Management on the part of this ETF and Investors that have chosen to HOLD! I took my Clients out of Gold at the highs way back in late 2011. Have a loooong look at many Mining Companies - the picture is even worst.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I post frequently in my Personal Blog on Gold, Silver, and other Commodities. Please see my URL to visit my blog below.
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (GLD)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to Invest Wisely. Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (GLD) has taken some big hits over the years. The entire period of 1980 through 2001 Gold was in a declining posture. That means, you lost money if you held Gold for over 20 years.
URL for (20-years of Gold - Spot Price and a bit less for - (GLD): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09298227245&a=310617132
Here are a number of the component ETF / Peers in the Gold realm that I focus on rather frequently: GLD, GDX, GDXJ, IAU, GDX, DGL, DZZ, UBG.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions).
I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.
Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"