Goldcorp, Inc. (NYSE:GG) -- Semi-Monthly Update w/ 5-Year Performance
Goldcorp. is one of the better Gold Mining Companies and had been more than cut in half, price wise in the past couple of years. Forecasting has been easy but with earnings improving my Hold-Cash Opinion could change. I said "could change" - - and that is definitely not a suggestion to Buy.
This past few weeks it has been hitting New-Lows with a rally this past week. Taking Long positions at this time is definitely not prudent.
My previous articles on GG (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy.
My Performance for Goldcorp can be found below and is well over 34% per year for the last 5 years.
Each week I do a complete study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Gold Mining Companies - - Indexes, Companies and ETFs. This is a study that is more than a treat for me to do because I get to update and explore Companies like (GG). Each time, it continues to support my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.69%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
This week's Commentary on - Goldcorp, Inc. (GG) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
Growth and Aggressive Growth Investors
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Goldcorp. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Goldcorp, Inc. and other Mining Companies are tracking the Commodity Gold Indexes very well. Although Gold and Goldcorp is in a strong Pull-Back it is and always has been an excellent contributor to my Commodities Analytics and Forecasting.
Forecasted w/ Performance - - - Bullish Cycle -- Ended Mid - Late 2011:
I made Formal Sell Recommendations to my Clients in late 2011. I had taken positions in Gold and Silver in April of 2009 @ $27. and my (GG) appreciated to $50 in October 2011 by 55%. That was a nice two and one have year Hold of about 34% growth per year. Silver Companies were almost a double of Goldcorp's performance.
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Current Forecasted /w Performance - - - Bearish Cycle -- Beginning - Late 2011:
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
Special Note: In this article on Gold I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Silver securities during the above Bullish Cycle ( April 2009 through August 2011 ) and am now working in and with the current Bearish Cycle.
I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."
However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.
The below Table is also for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts.
Goldcorp, Inc. (GG)
Forecasted Bearish "Alerts"
Descending -AND - Taking Long positions at this time IS NOT PRUDENT !
At this time (GG) remains in a Bearish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past couple years of about +22%. (that's per year - not including dividends if any).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bullish "Alerts."
Forecast Bearish "Alert" -- Initiated:
October, 2011 @ $51.
Performance for this Bearish Cycle to Date: +53%
Click on the Red Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Goldcorp - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Waiting or having the patience to let any Company completely return to a Bullish Cycle is why I continuously - Forecast.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you are likely being advised! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning Gold Mining Companies, the securities are definitely a mixed bag that you do not want to deal with at this time. Goldcorp, Inc. is currently WEAK Technically and I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore I have placed it on and it remains on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (GG) are not bad but not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are improving but way too negative to consider ownership.
My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of Buying. When? Not in the foreseeable future.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting - - 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation plays a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (GG) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its 2011highs of $54. selling for $22. The next rally is coming soon and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (GG).
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (GG) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Goldcorp, Inc. (GG)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Goldcorp, Inc. (GG) has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(GG): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53934944110&a=316931588
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Gold Mining Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: GG, ABX, KGC, AUY, NEM, IAG, EGO, GFI, ANV, AU, HMY, BTG, AUQ, NG, AEM, BAA, GOLD, RGLD, SA, SAND, NSU, RBY, TRX, FNV.
If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!
Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions).
I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.
Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"