Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) -- Semi-Monthly Update
Microsoft remains one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. It is on a Strong Hold but my Indicators are breaking down.
Microsoft is hanging in there very, very well. However, there is a possible Technical problem developing and Earnings are not all that impressive. So far - - just a word to the wise.
My previous articles on MSFT (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy.
My Performance for Microsoft can be found below and is nearly 20% per year for the last 5 years.
Each week I review all of my High Profile Technology / Software - - Indexes, Companies and ETFs. This is a study that is more than a treat for me to do because I get to update and explore many Companies like (MSFT). Each time, it supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely."
My objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.99%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support. Perhaps reading my support article will be of interest. Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2101922-income-investing-seniors-retirees-and-conservative-investors-deserve-better-service-as-well-as-profitable-direction-and-guidance
This week's Commentary on - Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.
Growth and Income Investors
My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.
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Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:
Microsoft Corp. and other Software Companies are tracking the Market well. (MSFT) remains in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. Unfortunately, I suggest it is beginning to tell a Bearish Story. . . My Forecasting of Microsoft over the years has been near perfect. From a December low of $26 to a present price of $35 isn't bad for a conservative Company like Microsoft. The afore mentioned rally was Forecast - on the button!
Forecast w/ Performance:
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Forecasted Bullish "Alerts"
Ascending - - Another 10+% Drop in Price like in July and August will come a gain ! - - It has Cometh !
At this time (MSFT) remains in a Bullish mode and has produced an annualized profit - over the past few years of about +19+%. (that's per year - not including dividends).
It, however is currently giving -- both Fundamental and Technical - - Bearish "Warnings" that if ignored will be costly.
Forecast Bullish "Alert" -- Initiated:
May, 2009 @ $18.00
Performance to Date: +94%
Click on the Green Arrow to read my Archive of my most recent and past Articles, on Microsoft Corp. - - including my on going Forecasts and Opinions.
Major Technology and Software Companies are excellent when it come to Forecasting Accurately. If you Forecast Accurately I can assure you that you will have Profitable Transactions.
Accurate and Profitable Forecasting and Appropriate Highly Selective Recommendations can be performed on any security on the planet.
Thanks for your interest in my Forecasts - work / analytics . . .
My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).
If you own or are considering owning a Software / etc. Companies, the securities have definitely become a mixed bag. Mostly strong but like always you need to find the best through being very selective. Microsoft is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting - 40%) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (MSFT) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated Earnings are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently selling off its highs of $35. I am recommending much Caution.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (MSFT) !
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A Twenty Year Perspective of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has taken some Semig hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of -(MSFT): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37471439789&a=310675869
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline & Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity." You might like to read my most-recent article on why I believe Selectivity is so critical for profiting in today's Marketplace. You might want to check out "Be Selective II - Just Click - - > http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2066602-flash-update-be-selective-ii
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Software Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: MSFT, ORCL, SYMC, CRM, CDNS, NUAN, CA, CPWR, ADBE, VMW, ADSK, BMC, CTXS, PAY, CHKP, NQ, INTU, SAP, SWI, FIRE, RHT, INFA, NEON, JIVE, SREV, PMTC, CNQR, CVLT. There are many, may more!
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Should you wish to read my latest article on the following Companies and ETFs - - Just Click on the Symbol. You will be taken (Linked) to my most current article as well at my last 20 articles on that Company or ETF. (It is an excellent way to gain insight into the accuracy of my Forecasts and Opinions).
I hope you will find my "stuff" very well worth your Time and very Accurate.
Thanks. . .
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"