Steven Bauer's  Instablog

Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Crude Oil – Sticky Stuff With No Solvent In Sight 0 comments
    Jan 12, 2014 11:13 AM | about stocks: UCO, OLO, OIL, XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE

    Crude Oil - Sticky Stuff with No Solvent in Sight

    Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF (NYSEARCA:UCO) continues to be Bearish and remains in a descending mode. It is on a Hold-Cash, and my fundamental and technical indicators are still breaking down.

    You may want to review my previous articles on UCO (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting / Formal Client Recommendations and much more.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Crude Oil is available by clicking: Crude Oil Performance. I treat Apple just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash e.g. when my Forecast dictates.

    2009 and 2010 were good years with a 66% and 17% profits respectively.

    I have completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Energy / Crude Oil Companies. I suggest that there is little support for notably higher prices in the making. This is a study that is a pleasure for me to do because I have spent time and experience in the study of Income and Growth Companies like UCO. Each time it offers support for my on going analytics, and I smile.

    My objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.00%

    This week's commentary on Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF covers all of my indicators, both fundamentally for valuations and technically for momentum. Despite its relatively low dividend it can be a very safe and productive company for Income Investors. There is always much to cover to provide my best possible forecast and opinion.

    Growth Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    - - -

    Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:

    Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF and other Energy - Oil / Gas Sector Companies and ETFs are NOT tracking well. Although Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF has been in a Bearish mode and in strong Pull-Back since early 2011. Whether or not is will break the previous lows is just one of those "wait and see" parts of "Investing Wisely."

    Forecast w/ Performance:

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My current forecast is not as bright as you are perhaps being advised! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning crude oil ETFs or companies, the securities are becoming a mixed, not a very positive bag. Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF is currently very weak technically, and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation for the majority of the component companies. It is on my Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My current opinion is to hold-cash in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be relatively strong.

    Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain weak. It is likely to flirt with its lows of $23, is selling for $28.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for UCO !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF

    Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF has taken some big hits over the years!

    URL for (20-years of -(UCO):

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Crude Oil Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (UCO), (NYSEARCA:OLO), (NYSEARCA:OIL), (NYSE:XOM), (NYSE:CVX), (NYSE:BP), (NYSE:RDS.A), (NYSE:STO), (NYSE:TOT), (NYSE:YPF), (NYSE:E), (NYSE:BAK), (NYSE:SSL), (NYSE:PTR), (NYSE:PZE). And, more . . .

    If you are seeking guidance or direction, please feel free to email me. My personal blog or site is: Investing Wisely.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve


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