Steven Bauer's  Instablog

Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Apple, Inc. – The Shinny Apple Has Too Many Brown Spots! 1 comment
    Jan 13, 2014 2:41 PM | about stocks: AAPL, EMC, NTAP, DELL, HPQ, DDD, FIO, WDC, SGI, SSYS, STX, SMT, AUO, NCR

    Apple, Inc. - The Shinny Apple has too Many Brown Spots!

    Apple, Inc. (OTC:APPL) clearly has not been one of the leading Companies on my Favorable List for a long time. I turned Bearish and went to cash in November 2012 over a year ago. It is currently on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down. This has been a nice rally, but I would never participate or consider owning with the amount of Un-Favorable data and information in my notes.

    My previous articles on APPL (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy. I am trying to share the answer Why in the above title. Want more clarity, just ask.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Apple, Inc. is available by clicking: (NASDAQ:AAPL). I treat Apple just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    My weekly study of all my High Profile Technology / Hardware - says that this Apple is not as juicy as in the past. Apple, Inc. is or was the "Darling of Wall Street" and will be said to have been one of the leaders of the coming Bear Market. I am please to have called the high in late summer of 2012.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.29%

    Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:

    Apple, Inc. and other Conventional Electricity Companies are tracking the Utilities sector well. There is always an end to a rally and many Utility Companies are not producing the price accent ion that is expected. There are very valid reasons why!

    Forecast w/ Performance:

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my Growth & Income Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My current forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning conventional electricity companies, the securities are becoming a mixed and rather negative bag. Apple, Inc. is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My current opinion is to hold-cash. Profits were taken in July and cash is my current safe haven. For me, cash is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Poor - Flat" and on the Decline. That produces future declining valuation projections.

    Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. It is again in a current mini pull-back since December from about $575 to a current price of $538.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for APPL !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Apple, Inc.

    Apple, Inc. has taken some big hits over the years!

    URL for (20-years of -(OTC:APPL):

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (OTC:APPL), (NYSE:EMC), (NASDAQ:NTAP), (NASDAQ:DELL), (NYSE:HPQ), (NYSE:DDD), (NYSE:FIO), (NASDAQ:WDC), (NASDAQ:SGI), (NASDAQ:SSYS), (NASDAQ:STX), (NASDAQ:SMT), (NYSE:AUO), (NYSE:NCR). And, more . . .

    If you are seeking guidance or direction, please feel free to email me. My personal blog or site is: Investing Wisely.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve


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  • jsh248
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
    What technical indicators are breaking down? Good blog btw.
    14 Jan 2014, 10:07 AM Reply Like
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