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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (GLD) – The Glitter Went Away And I Called It To The Oz. 0 comments
    Jan 19, 2014 11:58 AM | about stocks: GLD, NUGT, GDX, GDXJ, IAU, DGL, DZZ, UBG

    Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) - The Glitter Went Away and I Called it to the Oz.

    I just can't get off of one of my "toots." The one on Gold is simple because I just keep reading and reading unwanted and grossly exaggerated articles about Gold being ready to Buy again - for "Huge Gains." Rather than share my, likely "unwanted" thoughts about this kind of advice - - I will just say: loud and clear - - IT IS NOT YET A BUY !

    It could be in the foreseeable future but I strongly recommend that you continue to HOLD-CASH.

    The recent bounce off of LOWs for a rally that will likely continue for a short time.

    You may want to review my articles on GLD (just click) you will be provided with the exact history of the accuracy of my Forecasting / Formal Recommendations and much more.

    Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Gold Trust Shares - SPDR - ETF is available by clicking: (GLD) I treat GOLD and Gold Mining Companies just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    My Weekly study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Gold - Indices / Mining Companies / ETFs is in the books, meaning documented in my on going notes. I like to use my tools to read the probable direction of Gold, Precious Metals and Metals and Mining Companies. That's because of the above remarks that there is so much CHAFF and Very Little WHEAT being published that I like how my many, many years of gaining experience in the study of Gold and ETFs like (GLD) - - - has paid off so well. I love this work and it is why I continue while in retirement.

    My management objective is to identify the ever-changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    This week's commentary on - Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (GLD) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible Forecast and Opinion.

    Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Gold ETFs. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

    Forecast w/ Performance

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth" - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    Special Note: In this article on Gold I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Gold securities during the above Bullish Cycle and am now working in and with the below Bearish Cycle.

    I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."

    However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast for Gold is not and has not been as bright as you may be lead to think by a large number of blogging sources! Hum . . .

    If you own or are considering owning Mining Companies - or - Gold / ETFs, the securities are currently not a pretty picture. Prudent investing just does not support ownership at this time. Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF is currently very weak Technically and I have reservations about my very weak Fundamental Valuations. I placed it on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning." That was way back in late 2011.

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of a Bottom which at this stage cannot be Forecast - - other than to say - - there is a Possibility of a Bottom in the making. I said: "Possibility."

    Fundamentals - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuations (of each Mining Company) plays a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (GLD) (Mining Companies) are not as positive as perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Descending.

    Technically -( weighting - - 35% ): My Technical work / analytics is both unique and profitable. The current rally is fading for the near-term, so don't get Greedy! (GLD) is currently selling for: $121. - - down a BUNCH from the Highs of $189 in 2011.

    It peaked at $184.and so far has fallen to a low of $114. That is a lose of over 30%. And very Unacceptable Asset Management on the part of this ETF and Investors that have chosen to HOLD! I took my Clients out of Gold at the highs way back in late 2011. Have a loooong look at many Mining Companies - the picture is even worst.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I post frequently in my Personal Blog on Gold, Silver, and other Commodities. Please see my URL to visit my blog below.

    - - -

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (GLD)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to Invest Wisely. Gold Trust Shares - - SPDR - ETF (GLD) has taken some big hits over the years. The entire period of 1980 through 2001 Gold was in a declining posture. That means, you lost money if you held Gold for over 20 years.

    URL for (20-years of Gold - Spot Price and a bit less for - (GLD): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09298227245&a=310617132

    Selectivity

    Here are a number of the component ETF / Peers in the Gold realm that I focus on rather frequently: (GLD), (NYSEARCA:NUGT), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (NYSEARCA:GDXJ), (NYSEARCA:IAU), (GDX), (NYSEARCA:DGL), (NYSEARCA:DZZ), (NYSEARCA:UBG).

    For a Daily Input and Deeper View of my Work / Analytics you might want to Click, and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles:

    Personal Blog. I post every day. Just Click - - > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    If I can be of help with guidance and direction in the management of your portfolio(s) just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    GLD, NUGT, GDX, GDXJ, IAU, GDX, DGL, DZZ, UBG

    Stocks: GLD, NUGT, GDX, GDXJ, IAU, DGL, DZZ, UBG
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