Seeking Alpha

Steven Bauer's  Instablog

Steven Bauer
Send Message
My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Silver Trust - - IShares - ETF – There Is No Shine And No Polish For Shine In My Current Forecast 1 comment
    Jan 26, 2014 10:06 AM | about stocks: SLV, AGQ, SLVP, USLV, ZSL, DBS, DSLV, USV

    Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF - There is No Shine and No Polish for Shine in My Current Forecast

    Three Weeks Ago I Shared: "Silver could have a rally off of its current lows to the upside again, but caution is your first consideration. The August attempt at a rally failed and that is Bearish."

    This Week's Forecast is just a bit different. There is the mini-rally I forecast and it will not continue. I won't get excited about owning Silver for awhile longer because trying to buy a Commodity like Silver just off its lows is usually a very expensive investment strategy.

    You may want to review my articles on SLV (just click) you will be provided with the exact history of the accuracy of my Forecasting / Formal Recommendations and much more.

    Performance (my 5-Year Table) for iShares Silver Trust is available by clicking: (SLV - Performance) I treat this ETF just like any other Company / ETF, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    I just completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Commodities - Silver - Indices / Mining Companies / ETFs.

    My management objective is to identify the ever-changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    Forecast w/ Performance

    Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF and other Mining Companies are tracking Silver well. Although Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF is in a strong Down-Trend / Bearish Cycle, it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. The July to date Rally my be terminating and yet there are Bullish signals being flashed. Be Patient and stay with me. I accept Email questions from serious Investors, not Traders.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth- Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    Special Note: In this article on Silver I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Silver securities during the above Bullish Cycle ( April 2009 through August 2011 ) and am now working in and with the current Bearish Cycle.

    I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."

    However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright and shiny as you might wish!

    There are many, what I call "irresponsible" articles being written on precious metals that are grossly misleading. An example would be, I just read an article saying: "Silver will be going to $100 very soon." If you like that kind of advice, I doubt you will like what I share each and every day in SeekingAlpha.com and other Financial Blogs. (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Mining Companies - or - Silver / ETFs, the securities are currently not a pretty picture. Prudent investing just does not support ownership at this time. Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF is currently very weak Technically and I have reservations about my very weak Fundamental Valuations. I placed it on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning." That was way back in mid 2011. Not Bad - Forecasting (don't you think)?

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of a Bottom which at this stage cannot be Forecast. As far as it reaching "$100 soon" - - I strongly suggest that much will have to take place before that objective can even get started or be realized. I will keep you posted on my "Opinion" and I believe you will be well pleased.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of most all of the Silver Mining Companies (SLV) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.

    You might also want or check out my Articles on two Mining Companies - Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS). Just Click on the symbols.

    Technically ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine ETF, my Indicators have broken down and are possible on the mend. (SLV) is only currently slightly off of its declining highs of $24 selling for $19+. This is a time frame that you will want to - - stay tuned.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (SLV) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV) and Silver Spot Price has taken some big hits over the years. The entire period of 1980 through 2001 Gold was in a declining posture. That means, you lost money if you held Gold for over 20 years. It is no different for Silver or any other security. That is why I have such a disciplined Investment Methodology.

    URL for (20-years of Silver - Spot Price and a bit less for - (SLV): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07896351310&a=310617222

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the component ETF / Peers in the Silver realm that I focus on rather frequently: (SLV), (AGQ), (SLVP), (SLVR), (USLV), (ZSL), (DBS), (DSLV), (USV).

    For a Daily Input and Deeper View of my Work / Analytics you might want to Click, and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles:

    Personal Blog. I post every day. Just Click - - > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    SLV, AGQ, SLVP, SLVR, USLV, ZSL, DBS, DSLV, USV

    Stocks: SLV, AGQ, SLVP, USLV, ZSL, DBS, DSLV, USV
Back To Steven Bauer's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (1)
Track new comments
  • I agree, I believe we should hold on to cash right now. I do believe silver will hit a bottom of 14.50 to 14.75 within the next 18 months. My target price to buy is set to 15 dollars.
    27 Jan, 05:53 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.