Caterpillar, Inc. - It Ran Like a Gazelle and Now is Barely Crawling Again !
Caterpillar, Inc. (NYSE:CAT) clearly has not been one of the leading Ex-Dow 30 Companies since April - ten months ago, and that means continued caution. In 2009 through early 2011 it was the "number one" Dow 30 stocks to own. How things change! And there are always "hind-sight" reasons why. My job is to provide "fore-sight" and I do! It is currently on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down.
My previous articles on CAT (just click) will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting and its accuracy. I am sharing the answer as to the Why in the above title. Want more clarity, just ask.
My Performance for Caterpillar can be found in the table below and is well over 140% per year for the three year holding period.
Remember the primary trend is currently down! Remember the axiom - - "don't buck the trend?
This is a study that is of particular interest to me because I have spent so much time and experience in the study of excellent Companies like (CAT).
My weekly study of all my High Profile Industrial / Heavy Machinery companies confirms the above message. I particularly like this each time, I learn much and that makes for "Investing Wisely."
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.79%
Forecast w/ Performance
Caterpillar, Inc. and other Heavy Equipment are tracking the Industrials sector well. There is always an end to a rally and many Companies are not producing the price accent ion that is expected. There are very valid reasons why!
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.
My current forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).
If you own or are considering owning conventional electricity companies, the securities are becoming a mixed and rather negative bag. Caterpillar, Inc. is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My current opinion is to HOLD-CASH. Profits were taken in July and cash is my current safe haven. For me, cash is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Poor - Flat" and on the Decline. That produces future declining valuation projections.
Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The current price is $90.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for CAT !
A Twenty Year Perspective of Caterpillar, Inc.
Caterpillar, Inc. has taken some big hits over the years!
URL for (20-years of -(CAT): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CAT&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31500825899&a=304969448
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (CAT), (NYSE:MTW), (NYSE:DE), (NYSE:TEX), (NYSE:CMI), (NYSE:MTOR), (NASDAQ:WPRT), (NYSE:TRN). And, more . . .
If you are seeking guidance or direction, please feel free to email me. My personal blog or site is: Investing Wisely.
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
CAT, MTW, DE, TEX, CMI, MTOR, WPRT, TRN