Seeking Alpha

Steven Bauer's  Instablog

Steven Bauer
Send Message
My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • It's Tuesday -- ( Forecasting The U.S. Stock Market ) – January 28th. 0 comments
    Jan 28, 2014 11:36 AM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA

    It's Tuesday -- ( Forecasting the U.S. Stock Market ) - January 28th.

    My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    Accurately Forecasting of any Indice, (Dow - 30 / S&P 500 / Nasdaq, Etc.) Index or Security for me is a daily routine that I have maintained for well over 50 years. I spend the majority of my research / analytics time Forecasting. The reasons are simple: a) it gives me a lead-time (often several weeks or more) to refine or fine-tune those Candidates for Buying (C4Bs) - or - Candidates for Shorting (C4Ss); b) it provides very clear prospective of where the General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups are going from this point foreword, in other words the "Big Picture;" c) it offers very accurate "Comparative Analytics" of What Companies or ETFs currently have the highest prospect to profit.

    Yes, it is a process that I cannot do with out - - (perhaps for YOU TOO !) and indeed is analytic tool that greatly enhances each transaction's performance by at least 10% and often more.

    The Most Critical Element of Your Consistently Being Profitable is:

    Unfortunately Reality seems to have faded badly with many Investors over the past decade or so.

    During this time, and since my retirement my annual profitability has increased markedly. The probability for Profit when I Formally Recommend a Company or ETF to my Clients is well above 90%. My individual transaction profits have all been over 20% for the past couple of years. This includes Utilities, High Dividend Paying Companies and my Growth and Aggressive Growth Recommendations. Have a look at my Profit Record in my Personal Blog. (see below).

    Please click on Reality for my brief article on Reality.

    Here is Some of My Wisdom on "Reality" that I Profit From

    The Stock Market can only be profitable if we are well tuned to the Perceptions of Investors - (POI) Indicator. Paradigms are what they are, and are only changeable when an opposite or perhaps negative event within the Stock Market is both abundantly clear and strong enough. Even then Investors tend to hold on to their "paradigms" until death. As an Investor, you might want to start pondering - - that all other Investors are going to believe what they believe - - - that is - until "Reality" finally sets in - - if ever.

    I suggest that the problem that nearly all Investors have is two fold: a) that when a Bull Market is confirmed most Investors, start buying late and keep hoping all the way and then back down. Taking profits is not something they do well; b) that after a Bear Market is confirmed most Investors keep holding and hoping all the way down.

    The Marketplace is currently in Bullish Market Cycle, as in all Bullish Market-Cycles, few investors will psychologically be able to unload their holdings (take profits) when a new Bear Market begins again. It is and always will be that way. In my articles, I am trying to help you fix that incorrect paradigm!

    Facts - or - "Reality?" - - For Me it is BOTH!

    The FACT is that today's U. S. Stock Market is: a) Over-Valued (P/E divided by Inflation adjusted Earnings); b) Over-Bought (Above its Mean); Overly-Bullish (Sentiment), with Interest Rates on the Rise (Measured with reference to Calendar Quarters); c) Over-Exuberance (Judgmental at Best). And More! This identical condition has been a common characteristic for most every significant market peak throughout the history of the Market itself.

    Featured Thought to Share for this Week: Asset Allocation . . .

    If you are not using asset allocation in a disciplined manner you are losing profits that are meaningful. Over the 50+ years that I have managed Client assets it is abundantly clear to me that your are losing 10% or more in profits than you would with just a simple asset allocation model.

    You say, I am well diversified. That may be true you may also be either over-diversified or under-diversified! Balancing your portfolio within a range of clearly defined risk is important. The formulas I have read over these many years tell me that brokerage firms and Wall Street itself do not give the investors what he or she should have.

    The General U.S. Stock Market - - "Investing Wisely."

    The General Market is UP and is tracking and in Sync with my Near-Term and Short-Term Forecasts - - (please see below). The Marketplace will likely continue to see-saw Up and Down for a while longer into 2014 while continuing to make a definitive TOP.

    At this time I am primarily holding a very small list Securities - Long and am Holding-Cash (quite a lot !!!) in anticipation of a Bearish Inflection Point. I am not adding Bullish Positions. (you will find my daily Listing of Companies ? ETFs in my Personal Blog).

    When I believe a Bear Market has begun, I will prudently be taking Bearish Positions for my Clients who have such a "risk tolerance" within their Asset Allocation Model.

    It will not be Posted in Any Public Blog.

    The securities I am holding have not yet broken to the downside so I just Hold until they do - - Oh Yes they will "break to the downside" it is only a matter of time. Each week a few Knuckle Under. I hope you have a way to note just how many Companies / ETFs have already - Peaked and are Descending.

    Please consider reading my article on: My Long-Term Performance Record back to 1957.

    Forecasting the Near and Short Term of the General Market

    The General U.S. Stock Market - Forecasted

    This week so far for the General Market is trying to turn up and it will in the coming days, but I believe it will be a brief turn-up. That scenario is GREAT if you are looking for a Bearish Short-Term Inflection Point - and I am. Please remember the Near-Term is only what supports the Short-Term and beyond. This means that I / YOU must remain patient and wait for my Composite Technical Indicators to do their thing. Believe me my Fundamental - Valuation Indicators have been in a Bearish mode for weeks.

    I am very prepared and confident with my pending Formal (Bearish) Recommendations to my Clients. If you are familiar with my articles you will know that I have two "Lists." One for "Favorable Companies / ETFs" and one for "Un-Favorable Companies / ETFs."

    This Pending "List" is the - Latter . . .

    For the Near-Term: ( one day to thirty days ) Another mini or bounce Rally has or will soon begin. The Bulls are very close to running out of the euphoric attempts to move the General Market UP. There has been very little convincing evidence (Economically or Fundamentally) that any mini-rally will be sustained.

    The coming days and perhaps a couple / few weeks will be critical if you intend to begin "Investing Wisely."

    For the Short-Term: ( one month to three months ) Topping is over-due but the coming few weeks of trading will be an excellent time to re-confirm and do my Analytics homework very diligently using all my many Indices to find the necessary "Confirmation" that the Bulls are at least dying and / or perhaps already dead. We will soon see.

    Support for Consistent Profits

    You might want to visit my Personal Blog - I publish every day: http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    Stay tuned - my "stuff" is very accurate . . .

    Let me know if I can help with personalized guidance and direction of your portfolio(s). I welcome your questions and thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com - - and - - themoneydr@gmail.com .

    Smile, Have Fun, Investing Wisely,

    Dr. Steve

    Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA
Back To Steven Bauer's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.