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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • AT&T, Inc. - Ma Bell – There Is A Time To Love Her And A Time To Say Good Bye For Awhile ! 0 comments
    Jan 31, 2014 11:25 AM | about stocks: T, VZ, S, OIBR, LVLT, VIV, TEF, VG, CBB, BCE, VIP

    AT&T, Inc. - Ma Bell - There is a Time to Love Her and a Time to Say Good Bye for Awhile !

    AT&T clearly has not been one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies for quite some time. It is on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down. AT&T has looked very anemic since April 2013 - some nine months or so ago, and that means continued caution.

    My previously written articles on T (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance AT&T is not included in my 5-Year Table Performance for Income Allocation Model Portfolios and is available by clicking: Income Performance. I believe it accurately shares the rather positive results by first forecasting and then making wise investment decisions. I hope you will agree.

    My weekly study of all my High Profile Telecom / Fixed Line Telecom. confirms the above message. I particularly like this each time, I learn much and that makes for "Investing Wisely."

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 5.73%

    Note: A high yield is of no value when the price of the Company is descending!

    This week's commentary on AT&T covers all of my indicators, both fundamentally for valuations and technically for momentum. It pays an excellent dividend and when it is in a up-trend it can be a very safe and productive company for Income Investors. There are, as you know, times when it is not in an "up-trend!"

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance:

    AT&T and other Telecom Companies are tracking the marketplace well. There is always an end to a rally and many, Utility / Telecomm Companies are not producing the upside as expected.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my Income Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My current forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning telecomm. companies, the securities are becoming a mixed bag. AT&T is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My current opinion is to hold-cash. Profits were taken and cash is a current safe haven.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Flat" and on the Decline. That produces future declining valuation projections.

    Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The current pull-back since April 2013 at about $38 to a current price of $33. is and has been an excellent warning as to the future price of AT&T.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for T !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of AT&T Comm.

    AT&T has taken some big hits over the years!

    URL for (20-years of - (NYSE:T): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98681223257&a=305205554

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Footwear Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (T), (VZ), (NYSE:S), (NYSE:OIBR), (NYSE:LVLT), (NYSE:VIV), (NYSE:TEF), (NYSE:VG), (NYSE:CBB), (NYSE:BCE), (NASDAQ:VIP). And, more . . .

    If you are seeking guidance or direction in the management of your portfolio(s), please feel free to email me. My personal blog or site is: Investing Wisely.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    T, VZ, S, OIBR, LVLT, VIV, TEF, VG, CBB, BCE, VIP

    Stocks: T, VZ, S, OIBR, LVLT, VIV, TEF, VG, CBB, BCE, VIP
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