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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF (UCO) – Holding Cash For A Possible Buy 0 comments
    Feb 2, 2014 10:52 AM | about stocks: UCO, OLO, XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE

    Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF (NYSEARCA:UCO) - Holding Cash for a Possible Buy

    This ETF for Crude Oil has taken some major hits for about three years. In February of 2011 it sold for twice its current share price. This tells my story about Rotation is a very interesting way. Gasoline prices have soured in this time frame and yet the price is at half? Manipulation - YES! You are getting screwed, by Big Oil and that is being supported by your Government. Hum!

    My previously written articles on UCO (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Crude Oil is available by clicking: Crude Oil Performance. I treat Apple just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    My management objective is to identify the ever-changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF and other Energy - Oil / Gas Sector Companies and ETFs are tracking well. Although Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF has been in a strong Pull-Back however, it has rallied for about 6 month and has now pulled back again. That could end soon. I said "could."

    My forecast produced a 100% gain from April 2009 to March 2011.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    Special Note: In this article on have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Silver securities during the above Bullish Cycle and am now working in and with the below Bearish Cycle.

    I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."

    However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast for Crude Oil is more bright as you may be lead to think!

    If you own or are considering owning Energy - Oil / Gas Companies or ETFs, the securities are currently offering some promise for Buying. Prudent investing supports having a long look and considering ownership in the coming months ahead. Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF is currently Technically not very strong. That could change in the coming weeks but for now it remains on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to continue to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of Buying at a future time frame.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations for Crude Oil and Energy are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. Have a look at my recent Forecasts for Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

    Technically - ( weighting - 35% ): Even with this ETF, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently slightly off its highs of $40 selling for $32. When (UCO) began trading in late 2008 it was selling for about $108 per share. WOW!

    The market has had incredible growth for the years since and this view of Crude Oil is not a pretty Longer-Term picture. Brent Crude Oil has performed much better but it too has not reached the highs of 2008. Something to ponder!

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (UCO) !

    A Five Year Perspective of Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF (UCO)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Invest Wisely." Crude Oil - - ProShares - ETF (UCO) has taken some big hits over the few years it has existed.

    My URL for (5-years of Crude Oil (West Texas Light Crude) tells the story well. Since inception for (UCO): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UCO&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32486721734&a=310617298

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Crude Oil Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (UCO), (OLO), (XOM), (NYSE:CVX), (NYSE:BP), (NYSE:RDS.A), (NYSE:STO), (NYSE:TOT), (NYSE:YPF), (NYSE:E), (NYSE:BAK), (NYSE:SSL), (NYSE:PTR), (NYSE:PZE).

    For a Daily Input and Deeper View of my Work / Analytics you might want to Click, and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles:

    Personal Blog. I post every day. Just Click - - > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    If I can be of help with guidance and direction of your portfolio(s) just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com - and - themoneydr@gmail.com.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    UCO, OLO, XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE

    Stocks: UCO, OLO, XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, STO, TOT, YPF, E, BAK, SSL, PTR, PZE
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