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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • Ford Motor Company – Back To Basics And Cash 1 comment
    Feb 4, 2014 12:09 PM | about stocks: F, GM, TM, HMC, NSANY, TSLA

    Ford Motor Company - Back to Basics and Cash

    A Month Ago and more I Said: "Ford is among a number of Companies that are hanging in there with the Major Indices and greatly out-performing - them! My Fundamental - Valuations support this very well and is a vital component to enjoying consistent annual profits. However, this posting is beginning to tell me a more negative story. When a strong company has "flat" performance for several months, we should definitely take note."

    That was "On the Button" and so is this: A rally is in progress and - IF - it is not very positive - - Cash - - is your next place to be.

    Currently it had taken the hit I Forecast but a rally is in place that will - Tell-All.

    My previously written articles on F (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance please see my below table as well as (my 5-Year Table) for Ford is available by clicking: (NYSE:F). I treat Ford just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    I am frequently studying of all my High Profile Cyclical / Auto Manufacturing Companies. My focus list is well over several hundred Companies. I recently published an article in another Blog that you might want to read.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    Income & Growth Investors - Ford Motor Pays a: 3.44% Dividend

    A nice Dividend is not worth much if the price of the security is descending!

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Ford Motor Company and other Auto Manufacturing Companies are tracking well. (F) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts have been deadly accurate for Ford for a very long time. We are in the second rally since 2009 and that too should tell you something important about my Forecasting.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is very bright and only a major Bear Cycle within the General Market can change my mind ! Unfortunately a major Bear Market is in the Making. The effect of that last sentence is something I will keep you well appraised of in my flow of daily articles and in my Private Blog.

    If you own or are considering owning Automobile Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). Ford Motor Company is currently strong Technically. I have no reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore, in summer 2012 - I placed it on an Strong Bearish Forecast - "Alert."

    My Current Opinion is Hold-Cash !

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations for Ford remains strong but are producing cautionary declining projections.

    Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are Ok but notable weakening. A re-bound rally is in the making - - the strength of which will be very important as to when I will advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is currently off its highs of $17+ selling at $14.. It is interesting to note that in early 2011 it was also at the $17. level and subsequently dropped to under $9. The current rally (July 2012 has broken down and the rebound-rally that is now in place will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (F). I cannot encourage you more about studying my 20 year Chart for Ford - just below.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ), my third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (F) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Ford Motor Company (F)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Ford Motor Company (F), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.

    URL for (20-years of) (F):


    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Auto Manufacturing Industry Group that I focus on: (F), (NYSE:GM), (NYSE:HMC), (OTCPK:NSANY), (NASDAQ:TSLA).

    For a Daily Input and Deeper View of my Work / Analytics you might want to Click, and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles:

    Personal Blog. I post every day. Just Click - - >

    If I can be of help with guidance and direction with your portfolio(s) just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve


    Stocks: F, GM, TM, HMC, NSANY, TSLA
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  • kevinconway
    , contributor
    Comments (2756) | Send Message
    Steve I recommend that you take a look at US retail categories 10 year charts (US Gov). Auto shows the pipeline being filled. Othere pent up demand categories lagging. Issue is one of enough disposable income to allow the industry to hit numbers. TM being cautious...F overly agressive in my opinion. 2 million lease cars comming onto the used vehicle market. Interest rate rise a question mark. Housing starts are up and this draws disposable income. Student loans now at $1T+ and grads having difficult time getting jobs...young people for that matter. And there are a bunch of other indicators. Current age of cars in US 11.3 yrs...OK to have an older car and "wait another year?" syndrome from a consumer perspective. ONLY auto related stock I own is GT and that is now at about 5X what I paid for it. Good luck with your investing.
    4 Feb 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
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