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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
  • A Performance Forward Look At Three Of My Twelve U. S. Sectors 0 comments
    Feb 5, 2014 8:25 AM | about stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA

    A Performance Forward Look at Three of My Twelve U. S. Sectors

    The first three of twelve are: Basic Materials / Consumer / Emerging Markets

    My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    The below graphic is simple and what you must understand - - IF - - You want to consistently be a profitable Investor.

    My below Table lists my select U.S. General Market - - Sectors which is a rather broad breakdown and perspective of the General Stock Market and Indices.

    In this Table, I share my current Forecasts and Opinions and Performance - - Updated at least Semi-Monthly. My focus is only on my ten (10) Sectors. There are other Sectors that I use for confirmation and "sub-groups" for each Sector and they are my select 350+ Industry Groups.

    I write a weekly article for a new Industry Group in Doug Short's - Advisor Perspectives blog. It is one of the very finest and elite financial blogs in cyber-space. There are quite a number of excellent financial authors. I recommend you tune into his Blog.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/

    At this writing these three Sectors contribute to the suggestion that the very old Bull General Market is deteriorating. It is always a slow process of topping a multi-year bull market. It therefore requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework each day over the years helps more than you might think.

    Forecasting the General Market for me is fun. It can only be done by breaking down, first the Sectors and then the component Industry Groups of each Sector. I use very basic fundamental -valuations that are always confirmed by my technical analysis. My Cycle Analysis and Forecasting Methodology has served both me and my Clients well fro over 5- years. Simple stated - it works!

    Fundamental - Valuation is a very mechanical / mathematical process but over the more recent years it has become an art as well as a science.

    Cycle Analysis for me means identifying Bullish and Bearish Primary and Secondary Inflection Points for the General Market, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs. Yes, it can be done and this series articles will share how I go about the task. My specific articles and graphics on Cycles may be of interest.

    Forecasting is a tool that I use primarily because it offers me what I call "lead time." That means, I have time to "Cherry Pick" the Best of the Best for Bullish Cycles and the Worst of the Worst for Bearish Cycles.

    Table of Current Status and Performance

    (click to enlarge)

    Long Term Charts for the three Sectors

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Every Sector has taken some big hits over the years. Check these longer-term charts out!

    Just Click:

    Basic Materials - - ($DJUSBM)

    Consumer - - ($DJUSCY)

    Emerging Markets - - ($MSEMF)

    Percent Chart for Perspective of the three Sectors

    (click to enlarge)

    Perspective, there are calculable reasons, ahead of making Investment Decisions, why some Sectors clearly out-perform other Sectors. This is also true with Industry Groups, Companies and ETFs, The Consumer Sector produced well better than twice the performance than Basic Materials or Emerging Markets. Again, this all can be determined "ahead of your making Investment Decisions." It simple requires more work, experience and know-how.

    Combining my Fundamental - Valuations with my very unique Technical Analysis always provides a clear perspective of the Best of the Best Securities for Bullish Cycles and the Worst of the Worst Securities for Bearish Cycles.

    Summary

    At this writing these three Sectors are suggesting that the very old Bull General Market is notable deteriorating. Topping a long-term Bull Market is always a slow process of that requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework and gaining perspective each day helps more than you might think.

    Of the 12 Sectors, currently two are a Losers, three more are on the edge and seven remain relatively strong and hold a Bullish Forecast. For reference, just six months ago there was only one Loser. My Forecasts suggest that within the next six months a notable number, not all, of my Sectors will become Losers. It is simple mathematics with a few caveats, when there are mostly Bullish Sector, Industry Groups and Companies you have a Bull market. It should be somewhat obvious that when, "vice-versa" occurs your have a Bear market.

    The trick is knowing the Bulls from the Bears! I do that task very well because I actually live with those critters. As this never ending process occurs, Indices ( INDU, Nasdaq, S&P, etc) will be taking hits or pull-backs that will clearly confirm to you that a Bear Market is in the making. This has been occurring for many months now!

    My work with these Sectors is fun for me. Sharing it with the Public is a pleasure and I indeed hope you will profit by my work.

    Smile, Have fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    Please Note: For a Daily Input and Deeper View of my Work / Analytics you might want to Click, and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles on my Personal Blog, which I update daily.

    To Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com - and - themoneydr@gmail.com.

    Stocks: SPY, QQQ, DIA
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