International Business Machines Corp. - Not a Good One to Hold at This Time
IBM has not been one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies for about a year. It is on a Hold-Cash and my Indicators are breaking down.
My previously written articles on IBM (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance for International Business Machines can be found below and is well over 31% per year for the 4.5 year holding period.
My weekly study of all my High Profile Technology / Computer Services Companies suggests that (NYSE:IBM) is no longer a strong Hold. This is another study that I enjoy very much and (IBM) is often an excellent bellwether for the general market.
My objective, each time around, is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
This week's Commentary on - International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) - covers all of my Indicators, both Fundamentally for Valuations and Technically for Momentum.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.02%
I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.
Forecast w/ Performance
International Business Machines Corp. and other Computer Services Companies are NOT tracking well and are not a good place to be.
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.
My Current Forecast is not as bright and positive as in the past !
If you own or are considering owning Computer Services Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). International Business Machines Corp. is currently strong / weakening Technically and I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."
My Current Opinion is HOLD-CASH with Very Strong Caution !
Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but my Valuations are "Flat" producing future declining projections of price.
Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The pull-back since March when it was selling for at about $213 is offering strong support for my Bearish "Warning." A General Market re-bound rally is in progress (with the exception for the negative "News" - - the strength of which will be very important as to when I will advise Clients to "Take Profits - and - move to Holding-Cash." It is selling for $188 - more than 10% off its highs.
Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (IBM) !
A Twenty Year Perspective of International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.
URL for (20-years of) (IBM): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBM&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89116737430&a=310675868
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Computer Services Industry Group that I focus on: (IBM), (NASDAQ:FTNT), (NYSE:NCR), (NYSE:DBD), (NASDAQ:FFIV), (NYSE:TDC), (NASDAQ:CERN), (NYSE:WIT), (NASDAQ:MCRS), (NASDAQ:MENT), (NASDAQ:WAVX).
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Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
IBM, FTNT, NCR, DBD, FFIV, TDC, CERN, WIT, MCRS, MENT, WAVX